bukie

Didn't take too long to get back to respectability on the road after falling to 21-30 at one point a month ago in Arizona. Now, the Cubs have 38 games remaining, 19 on the road and 19 at home. Given current home and road pace, if they fall off a bit on both, and take 2 of every 3 at home (13-6), while taking just under half the road games (9-10), they'll finish the year at 98-64. That record would force both the Brewers to finish at a 28-9 pace and the Cardinals to finish the year at a 29-6 pace to keep the Cubs out of the playoffs.

I think if the deductions were made public, it would at least be more open to understanding.

There's no maybe about it. Howry's spot is Gooz's to steal with a good September. That's who exactly I had in mind in terms of Guzman making into the playoff roster with Howry being left out. For some reason, Lou still believes in Howry. You don't need 5 starters in the playoffs, and Lou has never liked Marquis. I could see Gooz making the team at Marquis expense instead of Howry. I hate to say it, but I'd rather have Marquis than Howry on the playoff roster at this point. It might not be the competition betweenthem. The Cubs will likely use only 11 pitchers in the playoffs. The pitchers who seem to be locks: Zambrano, Harden, Dempster, Lilly as starters Wood, Marmol, Cotts, Samardzija, Gaudin That leaves 2 spots for Marshall, Howry, Marquis, Guzman, etc. So it's certainly possible that both Marquis and Howry will get left off the roster. I don't see that happening, but if Howry continues to go the way he's been going it could. If I could view things from the inside of Lou's mind, I would imagine he'd want another lefty to "balance" out the staff, and he's liked Marshall all year (well, "liked" relative to other lefty options), so I'd guess he's on the roster. Last spot would probably be Howry's to lose, and Lou is going to give him every chance to keep it unless Guzman comes up and is dynamite in September.

Reed Johnson EQA, mostly in a platoon against lefties that emphasizes his strengths: .273 Kosuke Fukudome EQA, "worthless player": .268 League average EQA: .260 Idea: Let the two Cub offensive players that are struggling below PECOTA projections work their way out of their slumps while the Cubs continue to score 10% more runs than anyone else in the league.

Err...no. The AL East is far and away the best division in the majors, and that isn't very close. Arguably 5 of the top 8 teams in the AL play in that division. Even as tough as the top of the NL Central is, the Reds and Pirates still play in it.

Getting ground balls is only good if you have a good IF defense behind him. Brandon Webb and Orlando Hudson are a prime example. Despite some of the comments on the range of the left side of our infield, Dempster's performance is certainly a point in Aram and Theriot's favor. Err...the Cubs defense is the most efficient in baseball. Theriot has limited range, but Ramirez is very good. DeRosa and Lee aren't too shabby either.

3-homer game in the Lieber start a few months ago. Him and every other Red.

Yeah, the Cubs have their best record after 124 games since...a season that magically ended on August 15. EDIT: And, even in 1945, they were only 77-47 at this point in the season. EDIT: Might as well show all the playoff years: 1945: 77-47 1st 1.5 GA 1938: 68-56 3rd 7.0 GB (they finished 21-6 to win the division) 1935: 75-49 3rd 2.5 GB 1932: 73-51 1st 8.0 GA 1929: 83-41 1st 11.5 GA (yeah, here's where it starts getting ridiculous) 1918: 82-42 1st 11.5 GA (they only played 5 games after this in the season to finish 84-45 on the year) 1910: 85-39 1st 10.5 GA 1908: 75-49 3rd 2.0 GB (that's right, they're ahead of the 1908 WS winner pace) 1907: 89-35 1st 16.0 GA (they certainly coasted in this season...they only lost 45 games on the year) 1906: 93-31 1st 13.0 GA (and they lost the World Series...)

Dude, it's about wins and losses, not statistics.

"Sure, you're winning now, but you'd be pathetic without Lee, Soto and Ramirez in the lineup." "Wanna bet?"

So four lefties and five righties, and yet all the lefties bat in order.

Sucks for Crocker too, finished a hundredth of a second off the medal stand.

Marmol's line: 1.3 IP, 0 H, 0 BB, 2 K, 11 pitches, 1 ball, 10 strikes.

And if the Padres win, their record will also be a palindrome. I think the same can be said for the Phillies and Mets, but I'm too lazy to look again to make sure. Padres held up their end of the bargain...

He's only blown 3 saves, so he's been better than Wood.

The value to winning the division is that you actually get into the playoffs.

Someone explain how Jody Gerut is out at home on a 2-1-2 putout?

Got em all. Here's the whole list: 1. Reed Johnson 6.3 2. Mark DeRosa 6.1 3. Kosuke Fukudome 4.6 4. Alfonso Soriano 2.7 5. Aramis Ramirez 2.1 6. Daryle Ward -0.4 7. Ronny Cedeno -1.1 8. Mike Fontenot -1.9 9. Jim Edmonds -1.9 10. Henry Blanco -2.8 11. Geovany Soto -2.9 12. Derrek Lee -3.1 13. Ryan Theriot -5.2 What does this prove? Not a lot, just a bit of fun to pass the time, really.

1. Reed Johnson 6.3 2. ? 3. Kosuke Fukudome 4.6 4. Alfonso Soriano 2.7 5. ? 6. ? 7. ? 8. ? 9. Jim Edmonds -1.9 10. ? 11. ? 12. Derrek Lee -3.1 13. Ryan Theriot -5.2 Worst: Ryan Theriot -5.2

I posted this buried in another thread, but maybe it should have its own. Bill James calculates a clutch factor into the Runs Created stat. It takes into account hits with RISP, and HRs with runners on base. According to this factor, there are 5 Cubs position players on the current roster that have above average "clutchness". Who are they? Bonus question: Who is the worst on the Cubs in "clutchness". Someone did guess Ronny Cedeno. He's actually 7th on the roster currently with -1.1 clutch.

Here's a trivia question related to the "clutch": - Bill James calculates clutch situations into the Runs Created stat (involving average with RISP, and HRs with men on specifically). As of today, there are 5 Cubs that are above average "in the clutch". Who are they? Bonus question: Who on the Cubs is the least "clutch" according to the statistic?

This year, at this rate, were the Cubs to finish with 73 wins and lose the rest of their games, there are not enough losses to spread around the remainder of the division teams to keep the Cubs in playoff position. At 74 wins, though, there is a way.

At some point, Occam is going to need a new razor.

Huh? Are you saying that because the Cards don't have enough head to head games to pass us up by winning all of them or something? He's saying that it's mathematically possible for a team to get 74 wins and make the playoffs

And if the Padres win, their record will also be a palindrome.