bukie
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Everything posted by bukie
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Real answer, HR and a SB in the same AB. Just keep going to first base after crossing home plate, see what the umps do.
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"WAR is a failed stat, it can't compare to GWRBI, Gold Gloves, and MVP voting numbers" feels like such an obvious troll bait post I refuse to believe that is real. Especially from "Javy is still a Cub 2".
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This is probably my biggest frustration with the game thread hive mind, the obsession with the opponent hitting a HR. When... 1) The Cubs hit more HR than anyone and never once faced Cub pitching 2) Being in a pitcher friendly environment neutralizes the biggest advantage the Cubs have on every opponent, the ability to hit for power and score lots of runs. You seriously would rather hinge the Cubs postseason success in a pitcher friendly environment and hope they can hold on for a few 3-2 or 2-1 wins? -
Any specific reason you wouldn't want the team with the most HR in baseball to be in a good spot for hitting HRs?
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"Steele is not coming back" "Webb isn't going to get back on track" "Thielbar will be the most used righty out of the pen because Counsell" Meanwhile, "The Padres are the most dangerous team because of their pen" - Pads have the fewest runs scored of any team in the NL postseason and Walker Buehler is their second best starter, the bullpen is meaningless if they don't get a lead. "The Phillies top 5 hitters are dangerous lefties, so lefties are the best option regardless of what the statistics say this year" - The Phillies have a terrible offense this season, especially Arraez since he came over in a trade. The reality is there are 4 teams a tier above in the NL playoffs, and the Padres and Phillies aren't one of them. Now, if they somehow end up in ATL for the wildcard, that's more concerning, but I don't think they're outmatched by the Braves, and would only be slight underdogs against the Brewers and Dodgers, regardless of the close losses over the last 2 weeks.
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This is not reality, it's just arrogant confident opinion being assumed as fact. Just because you don't understand how something is calculated doesn't make it overrated. The Cubs offense leads the majors in isolated power, walk rate, OPS, wOBA, and wRC+. The base running is about the only thing you could factually describe as being merely "above average". Assuming only negative outcomes for Cubs and positive outcomes for opponents doesn't make you a realist, it makes you an ignorant cynic.
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All the same, whoever it is, they'll be trapped in the room with us instead of vice versa. The Cubs offense is one nobody wants to see in the playoffs.
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Follow up on this after research... This is so unprecedented it has never happened before (best offensive run producer and best defensive run preventer in baseball). Times it has come close: 2012 Buster Posey - 5th offensive, 2nd defensive 1959 Ernie Banks - 6th offensive, 1st defensive 1984 Cal Ripken - 5th offensive, 1st defensive 1991 Cal Ripken - 2nd offensive, 1st defensive (Frank Thomas bested him offensively) 1948 Lou Boudreau - 3rd offensive, 1st defensive (3rd behind Stan Musial and Ted Williams) 1912 Honus Wagner - 7th offensive, 1st defensive 2004 Adrian Beltre - 8th offensive, 1st defensive (and a distant 8th, this was the Bonds 12 fWAR season) 1917 Rogers Hornsby - 3rd offensive, 2nd defensive 1895 Hughie Jennings - 8th offensive, 1st defensive (before stats were real) 1969 Rico Petricelli - 9th offensive, 5th defensive 1945 Snuffy Stimweiss - 3rd offensive, 1st defensive (behind Phil Cavaretta with Ted Williams away at war) 1910 Eddie Collins - 3rd offensive, 1st defensive (behind Ty Cobb) 1977 Mike Schmidt - 7th offensive, 5th defensive 2024 Bobby Witt Jr - 5th offensive, 3rd defensive I only made the list this long to convey that I did quite a bit of research on this and nope, nobody was 1st in both in any year.
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PCA has more fWAR this year than either Don Kessinger, Bill Buckner or Shawon Dunston had in their entire Cubs careers.
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One more for the afternoon... Pete currently leads all of baseball in both Offensive runs above average and Defensive runs above average, giving him the unheard of chance of being the best offensive and defensive player in baseball in the same year, which is crazy.
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Not so much a PCA stat as a "the game is different now" stat, but...wild to think about:
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Kind of mean to refer to the outfield bleachers as hell.
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Like I said earlier, at this point it's the easiest of the 6 major award decisions. It's no contest.
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One other thing to note about the playoffs is that pitching gets optimized for everyone, with more days off between games and a generally spaced out schedule. If you can find 4 good starters and 4 good relievers, that should pretty much carry you through the postseason barring injuries. So what do the Cubs have? Well, I think they have the 4 good starters nailed down in Gausman, Holmes, Boyd and Imanaga. Relievers are a bit trickier, but I think their most reliable relievers of late have been Rollison, Zeferjahn, Civale, and then find one between Palencia, Webb, Cabrera, Peterson, Assad, Rea, or a late Steele surprise.
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Or in simpler terms, they were never in danger of missing the playoffs.
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Sloppy conditions typically favor good rushing teams, which...I think favors the Bears.
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I don't think a lot of folks appreciate how good the Cubs have been offensively and defensively. For example, they are so far ahead of the field right now in combined team fWAR that if you took PCA out of the equation entirely, they would still lead the league in fWAR.
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More stats that make me chuckle: PCA fWAR: 10.4 Entire Rockies offense fWAR: 8.5 Entire Angels offense fWAR: 9.8 Entire Athletics offense fWAR: 10.3 Entire Reds offense fWAR: 10.6 (and that's with Elly along providing 6.1!)
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That is correct, and why stats like these can be misleading, because you have to have a lead to blow it.
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10.4 fWAR would be the 9th best season in the last 50 years, behind 4 Bonds years, 2 Judge years, one Ripken year (1991) and one Bobby Witt Jr. year (2024)
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Cubs win today means they clinch a better record than the Cardinals.
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5, they win the tiebreaker with both Arizona and San Diego.
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PCA now up to 10.4 fWAR, which is more than Shohei Ohtani (6.7) and Bryce Harper (3.4) combined.
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