Sarcastic
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Everything posted by Sarcastic
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They had a rough patch right after the other "don't look now" thread too. Seems to happen a lot. Just goes to show that no hot streak is eternal.
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No, those stats don't represent the best possible look at Bowen's abilities. As has been mentioned, his BABIP was through the roof before he was traded to the Cubs. His scorching return to the earth when he came to the Cubs showed that clearly. Why not trade for Bowen? Because he was worse than what we already had. A lucky handful of ABs does not make a good player. When I spoke of his pro career, I meant his entire career, in the majors and minors. His career numbers in both do not suggest that he is a starting catcher.
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Well, the Cubs need to win tonight. 5-0 Brewers in the 3rd.
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The chemistry problems were the icing on the cake. The defensive lapses (which were always a problem, but were at their worst this year) along with the terrible offense (OBP of .307 :(), made his leash very short. What do you mean his performances would make him more affordable to us? His performance is why we shouldn't want him for even $1M per year. The defense was always bad and the offense as I said (and numerous studies support) was unlikely to pickup, given his age/position. Replacing a bad player with worse players is a bad idea. You can talk about getting rid of a bad player, but that only helps you if you have a better player to replace him with. The Cubs didn't. Rob Bowen's Pros (in order of importance) .268/.371/.439, OPS+ 120 Significantly better defense League-minimum salary, signed through next year 26 years-old Has never punched opponent, or own pitcher Why is he worse? Where did you get those numbers? His current OPS+ is 75. Perhaps you were referring to his numbers this year before the trade, but he accomplished that in a handful of ABs, not a meaningful sample compared to his entire pro career, in which he has been mediocre. He is a back up catcher at best.
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The chemistry problems were the icing on the cake. The defensive lapses (which were always a problem, but were at their worst this year) along with the terrible offense (OBP of .307 :(), made his leash very short. What do you mean his performances would make him more affordable to us? His performance is why we shouldn't want him for even $1M per year. The defense was always bad and the offense as I said (and numerous studies support) was unlikely to pickup, given his age/position. Replacing a bad player with worse players is a bad idea. You can talk about getting rid of a bad player, but that only helps you if you have a better player to replace him with. The Cubs didn't.
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I had no problem with trading Maddux, it needed to be done. But trading him for Izturis was not excusable. He was a bad SS who had been injured, and had potential to be decent at best, awful at worst. If he had been on the MLB minimum, cheap and easily replaceable, that would have been okay, but there was no excuse to take on a moderately expensive risk who couldn't have been replaced quickly if he didn't produce. Team chemistry trades are BS. Barrett's production has declined dramatically this year, but he is significantly better than any of his replacements. His poor performance this year may have made him resignable cheaply, and replaceable should his production have continued to decline. In any case, nothing the Cubs got for him justifies the decline in production from the catcher's position. This trade was truely bad.
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Yes it was a trade. He was acquired from Oakland shortly after Oakland acquired him from Montreal. These were actually packaged as two separate trades, but in effect it was Damian Miller for Barrett. Right. Forgot about that.
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I generally agree/hope that the Hamburgler will be able to pull off a decent trade for an power hitter. Hendry is pretty deft at making moves. He's hit 3 big ones (Lee, Ramirez, Nomar) and the rest haven't been all that good. Karros/Grudz Lofton (along with Ramirez) Barrett Partial list of bad Hendry trades: Maddux-Izturis Barrett-Bowen Prospects-Pierre His track record is mixed, like most.
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I generally agree/hope that the Hamburgler will be able to pull off a decent trade for an power hitter. Hendry is pretty deft at making moves. I don't know. It seems entirely possible that he isn't willing to make any moves right now. I'm sure that he would if he thought he could bring in a good player, but all signs seem to point to the Cubs standing pat.
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I sort of felt that the Brewers should be a better team too. Both teams have had some players work out better than expected. I guess which team looks better on paper varies depending on which players you expect to come down to earth, and which you expect to maintain their level of play. Clearly, you'd expect young players on the Brewers to be more likely to maintain an elevated level of production than vets with established patterns like Marquis. But the Brewers aren't infallible. Look how far JJ Hardy has fallen from the start of the season. The Cubs aren't the best team in the league, but they may be better than some give them credit for. EDIT: Also, as has been noted, position by position matchups are really mostly for fun, not determining a superior team.
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The hilarious thing is, why try to steal home when you are losing by two? That's just moronic.
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Weathers Ks Jenkins, 2 down, still 1st and 3rd, top 8th, 5-3 Reds. Inning over. Apparently Kevin Mench was caught trying to steal home.
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Weathers Ks Braun, 1st out of the 8th.
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Except that Murton has a better MiL track record and a year of success in the majors, whereas Soto has been an OK catcher up until this year in AAA and hasn't had a real chance yet.
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Dunn rumor on BCB...
Sarcastic replied to rickrolled's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
Even if you (conveniently) exclude 2002 and 2003, you still face a huge uphill battle trying to establish that Dunn has been any better than average in August and Sept/Oct. What you've got left is a smattering of 700 - mid 800 range OPSs, one 1000 OPS, and one 594 OPS. Pretty unspectacular. Excluding 2002 and 2003 just happens to be a intersection of the convenient and the correct. And I agree that he has not been spectacular in the last two months of the season over the last three years. He's had one very good finish (.900+), one solid one (.800+) and one horrible one (.645). That is still no conclusive proof of anything. You just can't turn this into a pattern when it is all over the place. -
The answer is that the Cubs organization is not always right. Soto could definitely have flopped, and I don't think he had as good a chance at giving solid production in his first full time stint in the MLB, but he deserved a shot after Barrett was traded. He didn't get it. I'm sure Kendall will continue to get chances for a while, and he should. There is a reasonable chance that he could play well for two months, considering his past performance. There is also the possibility that he sucks as badly as he did in the first half. I don't think we can have a definitive answer about his second half performance based on his couple of games with the Cubs so far. But if, approaching mid to late August, he shows no signs of turning around, it would be a mistake for Lou not to ask to give Soto a shot.
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Dunn rumor on BCB...
Sarcastic replied to rickrolled's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
That's very true about Dunn, but if the Cubs got his second best month out of the 9 (.847 OPS) for the next two months, Dunn probably wouldn't be worth the amount it would take to get him. He would have to be better than that-which is certainly possible, but the question then becomes how likely it would be. My money would be on Dunn performing closer to his overall numbers this year than his career Aug-Sept numbers, but of course any player could have a good or bad stretch during the course of two months and end up with much better or worse numbers than usual. I don't really know what the Cubs would need to get him, so I can't say if it would be more than he's worth. -
Dunn rumor on BCB...
Sarcastic replied to rickrolled's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
Three of those four under .600 OPS months happened in 2002 or 2003, when Dunn was 22 and 23. I don't think that those necessarily have a huge impact on what should be expected from him at age 27. He's only had one truly awful month since 2003. Doesn't that tell you something? If you remove his performances in his first two full years in the ML, then you can see that his play has been, as I said, all over the map. As for Zambrano being a slow starter, I haven't seen his stats, so I don't know if he is consistently a slow starter or not. I think you probably see many people saying now because of the horrendously bad start he had this year. -
Dunn rumor on BCB...
Sarcastic replied to rickrolled's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
The 2004-2007 monthly splits I put up are based on ~2000 ABs. The .799 for August + September is based on 570 ABs. You're not going to get very far (not with me at least) arguing that these sample sizes aren't large enough to draw any meaningful conclusions. At a bare minimum, there's strong reason to suspect that if Dunn were to come here, he wouldn't deliver the phenomenal 900+ OPS numbers everyone is all gaga over. I disagree. His post ASB numbers would worry me if they were at all consistent, but they aren't. They have been all over the map, from great to horrible. You can't possibly argue that that constitutes a definitive pattern in his career. Certainly, the .900+ OPS is not guaranteed, but I can't imagine that the .645 OPS is more likely, considering that it has happened only once in three years. -
Dunn rumor on BCB...
Sarcastic replied to rickrolled's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
No, he has a point about the average misrepresenting the whole. His previous year's poor play at the end of the season drops his average OPS below .800, when in two of the three yeasr, his OPS in August and Sept. was above .800, including a .900+ two month stretch. Based on the fact that, as noted before, time based splits are often not predictive, especially when, as you see with Dunn's splits, they aren't consistent to begin with, I'd bet that he'd be closer to his season OPS over the last two months than his three year average in Aug-Sept. Later on in his career, he may establish some pattern, become a better first or second half player. Right now, we have one very good second half, one solid one, and one terrible one to go on. I don't see any convincing evidence. -
I thought Marmol was sitting out for a few days? What happened to getting him some extra rest?
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They already have a new SS. And the catcher is kind of new. Not good, but new.
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How many outs, for those of us experiencing technical difficulties.
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Comcast is ruining the game for me. The last couple of innings have been basically impossible to watch through the static and jumps. Are they even going to fix this before the game is over?
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Since he started pitching to the Cubs on a cold streak.