Rob
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Everything posted by Rob
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Anyone Up? 3/18 Opening Day in Tokyo
Rob replied to Outshined_One's topic in Fred Hornkohl Game Thread Forum
That photo of Roast doing karate moves is probably old enough to drive now. Maybe old enough to drink. -
I agree with Derwood. Great fun to be had.
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C - Cal Raleigh ($100) 1B - Isaac Paredes ($50) 2B - Ketel Marte ($150) 3B - Rafael Devers ($100) SS - Mookie Betts ($50) LF - Jackson Chourio ($75) CF - Aaron Judge ($200) RF - Kyle Tucker ($75) DH - Shohei Ohtani ($200) Total $1000 if I did my math right. PMing you bench players shortly.
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Optimal lineup order makes a difference. But yeah. Outside of "stack the best hitters near the top" and "break up guys who are all susceptible to the same problem (like LHB v. LHP)" the remaining tweaks have extremely marginal returns.
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That's probably how I'd set it, at least in the early going. But it's worth noting that most projection systems have Shaw pegged for a wRC+ of around 105. Nico about the same and Dansby a bit closer to 100. Depending on how people are hitting, I could reasonably see Shaw moving his way up as high as the 5 hole, with whichever of Dansby/Nico who isn't hitting quite as well gettting bumped down to #8.
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Busch with a HR. Not a cheapie, either.
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Nico Hoerner's Last Stand
Rob replied to Matthew Trueblood's topic in North Side Baseball Front Page News
I'd give Jonathan India and Luis Garcia Jr. an edge, too. But yeah, Nico hits pretty well by 2B standards. -
Nico Hoerner's Last Stand
Rob replied to Matthew Trueblood's topic in North Side Baseball Front Page News
For the life of me, I cannot understand why so many Cubs fans tend to think our biggest strengths are somehow weaknesses. Since Dansby Swanson joined this team in 2023, he ranks 18th in MLB in fWAR. Nico Hoerner ranks 24th. Either one would be the best player on a lot of teams in baseball right now. They've certainly been the best players on ours. While their bats are no better than average, they're both sensational defenders at premium defensive positions. That's an extremely valuable player. And yet we have people bitching about Dansby's contract and now this ridiculous notion of moving him off SS. And acting like Nico is a disappointment and wearing out his welcome because he's not hitting aggressively enough... It's farcical. -
Oppo taco for Workman. I like it.
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Yes and no. Deferred money on its own isn't a competitive advantage. The time value of money stuff sees to that. However, some players have taken to heavily deferring contracts with the intent to move to a state without income tax prior to the big money coming in. In essence, they're dodging taxes on it. Many expect those States such as CA being exploited by these contracts to patch their loopholes and demand state income tax based on the time the service was rendered rather than the time the money is paid. But right now, when offering deferred money, the teams in those states are also treated like FL and TX and other states without state income tax. That's a competitive advantage, surely. I'm not sure what our tax laws look like. But if the same scheme is theoretically viable in IL then it would constitute a competitive advantage to offer income that will not be taxed by the State. Although, TBH, as a taxpayer, I'd be somewhat upset if they were taking advantage of it.
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How many times last offseason did we see fans using pretty much this exact argument to try to justify giving into Bellinger's ~$200 million dollar demands? Should the Cubs operate on the budget that they do? No. Do they? Yes. In the world in which we live, giving players too large of a contract constricts what they're able to offer to other players. Paying $40 million a year to Alex Bregman would, in all likelihood, put the Cubs in a position where they couldn't resign Tucker. Or if they did somehow manage to sign Tucker, it wouldn't matter, because there wouldn't be enough budget left over to field a competitive team around him and Bregman.
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Should've. But he might have wanted more of a playing time promise.
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They talk about that a bit. Their projections are based off BaseRuns rather than WAR. BaseRuns has a different calculation, and doesn't treat all runs equally. They use the example that a team that outscores its opponents by 50 runs will have different win percentages if they score 650 and allow 600, versus scoring 850 and allowing 800.
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Projection systems always regress to the mean. It's a feature, not a bug.
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Is Alex Bregman Really Worth It?
Rob replied to Brian Kelder's topic in North Side Baseball Front Page News
If signing Bregman necessitates moving Nico this season, I don't see the point. I'd rather have Nico making much less and providing the same overall production. For such an exchange to be worthwhile, we'd need a trading partner that is willing to give us a true top of the rotation pitcher in exchange for Nico. I don't see that happening, but I've been wrong before... -
I don't think it's a mark of genius either, and to be perfectly candid I have plenty of reservations about Boyd. I'm just tired of seeing complaints about the timing of the moves. Timing the market is hard, and outside much of a GM's control most of the time. But insofar as much as it is within his control, that's pretty much the only skill Jed has reliably shown himself to be decent at. He waits out the market on guys like Bellinger (and potentially Bregman), and he jumps on guys like Boyd before the market suddenly explodes. And at the end of the day, I care less about when we get to the point that the team is good and more about the team being good. If the Cubs were playing December baseball, I might care about that. But they aren't, and I don't.
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That's one thing that has me irked a bit. Most years, we hear all offseason that Jed is too passive and trying to wait out the market. Then he does something like snatches up Bellinger on the cheap and all is forgiven. (well, at least some is forgiven) This year, Jed actually made an early move to grab a guy the projection systems adore. He gets pounced on for paying too much, and then the market goes absolutely haywire for starting pitching to the point that Boyd is probably an underpay based on what he would've received 4-8 weeks later. And now we're mad at Jed for striking early because that meant he couldn't wait out the market on Flaherty. Pick a lane, people.
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Berti isn't just a backup plan for Nico. He is also our veteran 3B to challenge Shaw at 3B. Honestly, I like the move. He's produced like an above-average regular two of the last three seasons. Last year was rough, and he's getting up there in years. But that's why he barely cost more than league minimum. When he was healthy, he was basically what Vidal Brujan projected for before his development stalled. So the hope is either he gets healthy and returns to form or Brujan takes a step forward. But either way, I'm guessing the one looking rougher at the end of spring training is the one getting the axe.
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Ooof. I'd have rather had Arias.
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LOB% of 44.1% last year. Literally the worst in baseball of anybody with more than 20 IP. His previous numbers had hovered around 75%. Seems like the inflated ERA last year may just be bad sequencing in a small sample size. He's no great shakes, but there's some pitch modeling stuff that doesn't hate him either.
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I don't think it's so much that the Cubs wait until the last minute. Rather, I think that Jed values secrecy more than most, and so our front office is less inclined to leak things to the press.
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If that signing becomes official, it probably is a good sign that we aren't picking up Sasaki.
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Swanson was the best player on the team in both 2023 and 2024. So yeah, I'm much happier with the money going to him than to Bellinger, who was a less valuable player on each of those teams.
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What site are you guys using for your payroll figures?
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I was a big fan of Vidal Brujan on mlb the show a few years ago. My understanding was that he was projected with average or slightly above average contact and power, but that most of his value was supposed to come from speed and defense. No power has shown up thus far, and the defense has been sloppy. But a swing plane change and more limited defensive assignment (he played literally every position except for catcher last year) could see him make some gains. I don't expect much. But I didn't expect much from Mervis at this point either.
