I don't know if this is specifically directed at me, but I'm egocentric so I'm going to respond as if it is. Yeah, I know Carp was a higly touted pitcher. That's why I was referencing the fact he didn't really have an injury-free level of performance established. His one year prior to '05 where he pitched over 200 innings, he amassed a WARP1 of 5.6. That's exactly why I said I'd make allowances for people with injury problems being healthy for once. I suppose in Carp's case, regression to the mean would be mostly PT based. Arroyo was never really a great prospect. Looking at my old copies of BP, he's referred to as "a poor man's Jimmy Anderson: great record, good ERA, lousy peripherals and mediocre stuff" and "basically a right-hander with a marginal left-hander’s repertoire" The best thing about his pitches is that he manages to throw most of them for strikes, but he's got nothing really special. I don't think he's just "found his stride." His absolute ceiling is an innings-eater type of #3 starter, not the top of the league ace that he's impersonating now. Looking at Phillips' record, perhaps I jumped the gun on him a bit. He could post a .800 OPS if a few balls fall in for him... but I don't think he'll keep up the .996 OPS with runners in scoring position.