Rob

I just have to point this out. Schmidt's #3 comprable is Roger Clemens. In Clemens' age 31 season he went 170.2 innings with an ERA at 2.85. In Schmidt's age 31 season hew went 225 innings with an ERA at 3.20. In Clemens' age 32 season he went 140 innings with an ERA at 4.18 In Schmidt's age 32 season he went 172 innings with an ERA at 4.40 In Clemens' age 33 season he went 242.2 innings with an ERA at 3.63 In Schmidt's age 33 season he went 213.3 innings with an ERA at 3.59 In Clemens' age 34 and 35 seasons he won the pitching triple crown. Just something to chew on...

Does Lilly deserve 35 million? NO. Does Batista deserve 20 million? NO. Does Suppan deserve 35 million? NO. Does Zito deserve 100 million? NO. Does Meche deserve 30 million? NO. None of the guys on the market deserve what they are going to get. Schmidt is closest to deserving his actual pricetag...

Before the Soriano signing, I was of the mind that a Nixon/Craig Wilson platoon would give you very good production out of RF. As is, I still could go for Nixon. I'd just rather him be the 4th outfielder who gives Murton a break against really tough righties than have him be in a strict platoon with Murton. In other words, my manlove for Murton exceeds my manlove for Nixon. Just so long as having Nixon doesn't mean considerably less Murton, I'd love to have him on the squad.

What happened to Murton, do they not know that he's on our roster? I didn't even notice that part. I'm assuming such a series of events would leave the lineup looking like: Soriano Lugo Lee Ramirez Barrett Murton DeRosa Izturis That is not something I'd like to see. I don't mind it if our rotation is: Z Schmidt Jennings Hill Prior/Miller Westbrook > Jennings Shoot for the stars, man.

Looking at price and production. Schmidt >>>>> Padilla >> Lilly >> Marquis >> Suppan >> Batista >> Meche Marquis slides up the curve because of price, while Suppan slides down it for the same reason. Aside from that, it's pretty much a straight valuation of production. That's how I see it at least. My "you better not even mess with those guys for that money, just play the young guys" line falls somewhere in the Lilly/Marquis area of the map. Some days I have no problems with Lilly for 8-9 mil, others I do. I will always have a problem with us signing Lilly to this contract so early if it precludes us from signing Schmidt, however. There is absolutely no reason to sign a 4th starter to a deal that keeps us from getting a top-tier guy. None. Lilly is the kind of guy you sign in late January, once the big names have all packed their suitcases. Not in December.

He's better than Gil Meche. Ted Lilly is not a good pitcher. And how is he a better option than Gil Meche? Since when is a 4.31 ERA, 15-13 "not a good pitcher"? Pitching many games against the boston and new york line-ups mind you as well. Move him into the NL Central and it's easy to see why he is a good option. 5 of 7 starts in 06 vs Bos/NYY he let up 3 ER or less. Must be good to do well against those line-ups! :lol: Just bunking your contextualization that Lilly's #s should be better not having to pitch in the AL east. Then I counter good sir, not facing DH's in the NL!! HA HAAA!! Lilly is a pitcher with a high walk rate and flyball tendencies... you really want to bring that to Wrigley? How have all those other pitchers that fit the exact same profile worked out for us?

Essentially, that's the impression most of us have.

Willis is available in a trade. Petitte is still out there.

Cause "not that good of a player" >>>>>>> Izturis

More livable, but then you have to get rid of Izturis somehow. Cover him in honey and march him off into the woods?

I'm not huge on Jennings... but he's certainly a good value for Jones.

Of course you'd like to look at it like that, because it's the only way to make your case. But in reality he's bee inconsistent. He's got a fairly high walk rate, his ERA+ has been up and down and he's highly susceptible to the HR. I liked him as a guy who you'd slot at the end of your rotation and hope for 180 mediocre innings. But he's nowhere near a #3 pitcher, and clearly not consistent. We have different interpretations of a number 3 starter. If Lilly is your version of a back of the rotation starter, then you must be describing top 5 pitching staff in baseball, or a definitive playoff calibur team, and not with consideration of the entire league. Lilly's 2006, 3-year splits, and career numbers paint him as slightly above average in most standard pitcher measurements. Being average, or a little above average is what a team should expect from a number 3 starter. As an illustration, how many teams had 3 starters with a better 2006 than Lilly? Detroit, San Diego, Houston, Oakland, and the Angels would probably use Lilly as a 4th starter. And maybe Minnesota (although Radke and Lilly are probably interchangeable as 3s). For the rest of the league (from 2006), he would project as a likely 3rd starter. If you view innings pitched as your measure of reliable, then yes, he hasn't hit 200 IP. If you use Games Started as the measure, Lilly has only missed 9-10 starts in 4 years (depending on how you round the fraction). He's not reliable for 7 innings, but he is consistent for taking his turn in the rotation. Damn straight I am. We should be shooting for that each and every year. And this year, there's enough on the market to make it happen. Schmidt and Westbrook can fit on the team for nearly the same salary as two guys like Lilly and Meche. Schmidt is obviously the best of the bunch, and I'd be inclined to take Westbrook over Meche (certainly) and Lilly (probably). Signing Lilly this early can only tie up enough payroll to keep us from doing smart things.

No thank you. I'd rather hope it's untrue. As if it were true, it would be a huge detriment towards attempting to sign Schmidt. Lilly should be nothing more than a fallback option.

Yeah, he was one of the guys that got caught in Agegate.

Theoretically, there's also no more chance of injury with a 3-man rotation, but very strict (read: low) pitch counts. Actually, I'd be interested in running a three man tandem rotation. Z/Miller Hill/Wood Prior/Marshall Get 3-4 innings from each pitcher. Carry four relievers on the roster... It gives us a lot more people on the bench to mess around with. Plus, we wouldn't be throwing crappy guys like Novoa out there. Then again, it'd all be shot to hell the second one of them goes down with an injury.

That's pretty much the consensus pick from what I'm gathering.

Boston isn't trading Manny unless they sign JD Drew to complement Pena and Crisp. I very much doubt they'd take back Murton and Jones... just cause they don't need outfielders. Marshall has the ceiling of a #4 starter, and Ohman is your standard LOOGY. The Red Sox would never accept that trade. From what I understand, Boston is mostly looking for prospects in return, plus a few arms capable of contributing from the pen. Ohman could probably stay in that deal, but Veal, Gallagher, Pie, Pawelek, and EPatt are all going to be asked for before Murton, Jones, or Marshall.

Washed up, done, AND finished.....dang. Somebody should have warned Carpenter. When he was 26 he had a 6.26 ERA in 175 innings. In 02 it was 5.28 in 73 innings, and he didnt pitch at all in 03. He was was probably just washed up and done though. Well, I would love to be wrong and hope I am. However reality hits home when you read reports of his shoulder being loose and surgery could be an option. One if not his last start was in Milwaukee and he looked like a college pitcher! I hope things change, but I have a feeling he will never regain his 03 form. I always thought having a loose arm is good for a pitcher. Kinda sorta. The loose shoulder helped him generate a good deal of the velocity on his pitches, though it carried with it a risk of injury like this. If they tighten it up, he should lose 2-3 mph off his fastball, but he shouldn't have to worry about the injury again for a good long while. If you tighten up the arm you're increasing your chances of an arm injury. Arm speed is very important for a pitcher. Arm speed is more important than arm strength. The faster you can move your body, the more energy you have to generate a 90mph fastball. I'm talking about the ball and socket joint of the shoulder and the network of tendons and ligaments holding it in place, not the tightness of the biceps, triceps, etc... Pitching is not even a natural movement. You want your shoulder to be loose. Specially the rotator cuff. I don't see how a pitcher can throw a baseball at high speeds without a strong, stretched out rotator cuff. Right. Too tight and you can't get enough velocity at all. Prior's is so loose that I understand he's been having microsubluxations if he throws hard enough. That's his problem.

Washed up, done, AND finished.....dang. Somebody should have warned Carpenter. When he was 26 he had a 6.26 ERA in 175 innings. In 02 it was 5.28 in 73 innings, and he didnt pitch at all in 03. He was was probably just washed up and done though. Well, I would love to be wrong and hope I am. However reality hits home when you read reports of his shoulder being loose and surgery could be an option. One if not his last start was in Milwaukee and he looked like a college pitcher! I hope things change, but I have a feeling he will never regain his 03 form. I always thought having a loose arm is good for a pitcher. Kinda sorta. The loose shoulder helped him generate a good deal of the velocity on his pitches, though it carried with it a risk of injury like this. If they tighten it up, he should lose 2-3 mph off his fastball, but he shouldn't have to worry about the injury again for a good long while. If you tighten up the arm you're increasing your chances of an arm injury. Arm speed is very important for a pitcher. Arm speed is more important than arm strength. The faster you can move your body, the more energy you have to generate a 90mph fastball. I'm talking about the ball and socket joint of the shoulder and the network of tendons and ligaments holding it in place, not the tightness of the biceps, triceps, etc...

Wait, so you're saying it WASN'T a great idea to throw a 4 year, $40M contract at an injury-plagued pitcher who had an above-average ERA+ in just two of his seven major league seasons? I'd have rather thrown that money at Pavano than Meche.

That's only if you believe that even had he worked normal work loads and suffered the same traumas that he would not be in the same position as he is now. I can't make that claim. I'm not implying the traumas had no effect. I was just saying this day situation was coming anyways... though it most likely wouldn't have been the train wreck it has become without the injuries. He's certainly injury prone... but I don't necessarily believe his arm is in the same boat without a lot of contributing factors. . Many things can ruin a pitcher both mentally and physically that are not related to poor mechanics. Indeed. Zach Greinke says "hello."

Just a couple pages back.

I don't wanna sound gay or nothing, but that is one sweet avatar you've got there, dude.

Actually, talk to most athletic trainers or physical therapists and they will tell you that ALL pitchers throw with an unnatural motion. That not withstanding, KW is considered the definition of bad mechanics. and Prior was considered as having "perfect mechanics" by most experts, so what does that tell you? It tells me that he was overworked, took some direct trauma to vital areas for pitching, altered his mechanics to compensate, and hasn't been the same since. The direct traumas certainly didn't help, but he would have had issues even if it weren't for the trauma. The more pitches a pitcher throws, the more he gets fatigued. The more fatigued he gets, the more his mechanics begin to degrade. Even if Prior had perfect mechanics when he started the game, throwing 120 pitches was certainly going to give him bad mechanics for that last bunch. Bad mechanics equals a higher chance of injury. Dusty killed Prior.

I'm afraid the average baseball fan (or even the average baseball writer) doesn't know enough that they would actually be able to put a decent player on the team. Too many people loved Pierre, Neifi, Izturis, Augie, etc...