Rob

WARP3 does, yes.

Didn't Gary Carter and Mazeroski play defense? Mazeroski is an all-time great defender. For their careers, Carter and Grace were worth about the same compared to league average at their positions... granted that catcher is a whole different beast than first base, though. I guess what I'm tyring to say is that Grace was no slouch with the glove either. Some interesting WARP3 scores for Cubs players... Anson - 159.5 Banks - 127.4 Jenkins - 124.2 Williams - 117.0 Santo - 116.7 Ryno - 112.9 Dawson - 109.5 Hartnett - 109.3 Sosa - 102.9 Grace - 96.5 Tinker - 78.0 Three-Finger Brown - 70.5 Evers - 68.3 Cavarretta - 65.1 Chance - 62.2 Hack Wilson - 60.4 Hippo Vaughn - 59.1 Grace is a lot closer to HOF worthy than people realize.

Just based off who's in the org right now? Alan Trammel and Ryne Sandberg.

Replacing cedeno with Izturis is at best a lateral move. I would say at worst it's a lateral move-there will likely be a small upgrade offensively (probably around 30-40 points of OPS, with 25-30 points of that coming from OBP) and a decent upgrade defensively. The contract is a different story, but Izturis's 2007 is probably going to be a lateral move at its worst from Cedeno's 2006 campaign. It may be an upgrade over what we got from Cedeno last year, but I hardly imagine Izturis will provide four million dollars worth of upgrades over what Cedeno is capable of this coming year.

To make such a proclamation is a bit premature, I would think. I would agree with you that DeRosa is better with the glove than Walker, and better with the bat than Neifi. But to state that this makes him "better by far" than those two is a logical fallacy. If I were to state to you that DeRosa were considerably worse with the bat than Walker, and considerably worse with the glove than Neifi, would that be enough to say he'd be "worse by far?" For my money, I would have rather retained Walker over DeRosa any day of the week... though I will do my best to give DeRosa a chance to prove last year wasn't so far above his head as I believe it to be.

Honestly, I'm surprised the Tigers are still using him as a SS. There were rumblings they wouldn't bring Casey back so that they could move Guillen to 1B... False obviously, but typically where there's smoke, there's fire. That being said, his bat more than makes up for his glove. I'd love to bring him in. He's certainly a much better fit on a major league roster than Izturis.

It begins...

We would have a lot fewer question marks right now if it weren't for Dusty's perpetual veterosexuality. I feel pretty good about Hill, but I still feel a slight twinge of doubt that wouldn't be there if they had just played the kid from jump. Did you see how he pitched in spring training last year? There were at least 5 others who were better. When Rusch absolutely sucked in April, they brought Hill up to pitch on May 4th and he sucked even worse. They ran him out there for 4 consecutive starts and each time, Hill did not pitch well. If Dusty had continued to run him out there and Hill continued to put up an ERA over 9, not only would fans say that Dusty isn't trying to win, but they would attack him for ruining a very promising pitching prospect with a somewhat fragile psyche by continuing to let him fail over and over again thus proving to Rich that he doesn't have what it takes to perform in the big leagues. No, Dusty and Jim did the right thing. They protected their prized prospect and sent him down to AAA where he had been redefining the word domination for the past year to get his confidence back and work on what was apparently having him fail at the big league level which was spotting the fastball. Apparently, once he improved his control with his fastball and was consistent with it, he was called back up. That took about 7 weeks in AAA to do. In his first start after being called back up, Hill failed. Did Dusty sit him? No. Just like in May, he gave him another shot. This time Hill did not fail. And Rich never looked back. In Hill's case, the results speak for themselves. He was handled right. that's such crap. just because he ended up doing well, it was because he got sent down? he was the same pitcher in AAA in '05, early '06 and his second stint there in '06. the reason he pitched better in the second half of the year was because he got some innings under his belt -- not because jim hendry handled the situation with a skilled hand. people need to quit giving hendry/baker credit for hill's success. he succeeded in spite of those fools, not because of them. So let me see if I understand your thought process here, when Cubs fail to perform well its Baker's and Hendry's fault which proves that they are fools thus when some Cubs succeed they couldn't possibly have anything to do with it. Thats a pretty hollow argument. And the incivility with which you presented your response gives me a clue as to how open you are to seeing evidence that flys in the face of your position. I've already dismantled your position on how obviously Hendry favored Rusch over Hill and you never responded to that, so I won't bother presenting a counter argument here. Actually, it's a pretty logical argument. If I tried to coach Tiger Woods on golfing (which I know nothing about) and he had to pay attention to what I said, it'd be pretty easy to screw him up. If I just left him alone and let him play, I wouldn't really be helping him... I just wouldn't be handicapping him anymore. If you really wanted to give me credit for finally knowing when to shut my mouth, you could... but it'd be a huge stretch to credit me with the success.

Jae Kuk Ryu is still listed as wearing No. 20. Subject to change at any time, certainly, but No. 20 Ryu and No. 17 Pie is what the roster says at present. Yeah, I saw that too. Pie shouldn't be #17, that was only good for Gracie. (Bobby Hill sucked in it.) I believe he wears #22? in the minors, but in the winter leagues he wore #20 from pictures I've seen. In his time in the minors, he's worn #15 and #20. The Cubs better retire Sammy's number!! The Cubs should retire #21 before #31. Unless the 31 is Jenkins, I agree 100%. Maddux shouldn't have his number retired by the Cubs. A certain Mr. Jenkins would like to have your support for #31 being retired.

Wanting Campusano back much?

I usually go with VORP and VORPr. Taveras 5.1 VORP, 0.038 VORPr Wilkerson -5.3 VORP, -0.063 VORPr Taveras was better than Wilkerson last year, I see no doubt about that. The question is whether Taveras will be better than Wilkerson again next year, a question which I am inclined to say "no" to. Taveras used to have a very high walk rate in the minors. 2002, .120 IsoD 2003, .100 IsoD 2004, .067 IsoD Obviously, pitchers are challenging him more now that they realize he can barely jack the ball out of the infield when they hang a curve, but he does stll have some potential to recover some of that patience. I'd give up a package like Mateo and Harben for Tavares, but I wouldn't give up anything of real value... and I certainly wouldn't plan on keeping Tavares around once Pie becomes ready.

I find myself wondering the same thing when I look at this thread. Any interesting news to leak to us today?

He's one of the very top first basemen to ever play the game. If he doesn't get in, it'll be another black eye for the validity of the HoF in the vein of the Santo and Blyleven gaffes.

I'm not the biggest Izturis fan, but if you look at him at 26 he compares similar to Omar Vizquel when he was that age. Vizquel had similar type numbers and eventually developed into a solid hitter. If you get the chance look at their stats from early in their careers. Lets see if Izturis will develop more, he is still young. Hopefully he will be one of Gerald Perry's new projects. Working on OBP. Vizquel Age, IsoD 22, .053 23, .052 24, .072 25, .046 26, .064 Izturis Age, IsoD 21, .010 22, .021 23, .031 24, .042 25, .045 26, .050 Izturis is apparently getting more patient, but his best season is still only .004 better than Vizquel's worst through age 26. And even at that, Vizquel has been well below average with the bat most seasons...we are talking about a guy whose career OPS is .702 (measurably worse than Pierre was last year, and nobody thought he qualified as much of a hitter)

To everybody who is arguing against a four man rotation on the basis of daily routines being important, You do realize that pitchers are asked to adjust their routines much more drastically quite often, right? Hell, we're in the middle of moving Wood from the rotation to the bullpen... he's going to completely change his routine.. We send young kids down from the major league pen and have them start at AAA constantly. How about the swingman role? He doesn't get to have a routine all year. Now mind you, I'm not trying to argue that the routines are unimportant. They certainly are important. But if Rothschild were really half the pitching coach he's supposed to be, he should be able to come up with routines to help guys get through 4 man rotations. And I'm all for setting up a 4 man, tandem rotation. It would free up a slot or two on the bench that would otherwise go to somebody like Novoa.

People are wasting their time talking about this shortstop thing and Giles. The Cubs, whether you like it or not, are happy with Izturis and are not looking for a shortstop. They signed DeRosa for three years to be their second baseman. They are not going to sign Giles. You know Bruce, sometimes you ruin my "ignorance is bliss" gambit. I am partly kidding, of course. I really do appreciate the fact that you give us such unparallelled insight into the mindset of the Cubs' front office. I just wish that they gave you better things to say.

Krivsky has to be rapidly getting there as well. He certainly is. The way I see it, it goes... 1. Coletti 2. Krvisky 3. Bavasi 4. Bowden Bowden has absolutely mangled Krvisky and Bavasi lately, so there does need to be a gap between them.

I think this deal flip-flops Bowden and Bavasi at the near the bottom of the GM list. Coletti is still king, though.

Is this the theory of how Joe Morgan got a job announcing?

He could be good if we put him in a position to suceed. For instance, if he was only ever allowed to pinch run (not steal) and never touch a bat or a glove, he'd be amazing at his job.

Official. Heyman reported that hours ago while they were still on the plane. An hour later John Henry came out and said there was no deal yet. Has anything changed since then?

He's too valuable as a starter to be converted to closer. On the Marlins it might actually make a bit of sense. Willis Johnson Sanchez Olson And Pinto and Petit can compete for the fifth starter spot with Mitre. I'm not saying I'd waste a pitcher of Nolasco's potential in a relief role... that'd just be stupid. But if they can't get good value for him in a trade, they've got to put him somewhere... and there's a good chance Pinto or Petit (if he gets some of that magic back) could outperform him anyways.

Do you have stats for number of pitches thrown per season during that era? Pitches per plate appearance have increased pretty dramatically since then. it sure doesnt sound like that is the case according to this quote from Ferguson Jenkins: "I hear in the clubhouse all the time about a pitcher having a twinge, and they go on the disabled list. I would have never won any ballgames if I would have missed a start with a twinge. "Pitchers are definitely protected," added Jenkins. "I used to warm up and throw 100 pitches in the bullpen and then throw 150 pitches in the game. I would throw nine innings, which they usually won't let these young men do right now." link: http://mlb.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/news/article.jsp?ymd=20060709&content_id=1549169&vkey=allstar2006&fext=.jsp What was the average velocity that pitchers threw back in the day? According to MVP Baseball 2005, Walter Johnson threw between 100-102 on most pitches.

I dunno, I'm a big fan of Gagne in 2003. Also an incredible year. I just think sometimes people forget how good Mesa was for that one season. Yes, but that's not what you originally said. You said you'd take Mesa over Smith and that is just an utterly ridiculous statement. Certain stats can be argued; others can't. Pick any stat you want; Smith beats Mesa in all of them and flat out dominates in most of them. K/IP Mesa: .67 Smith: .97 BB/IP Mesa: .42 Smith: .38 ERA: Mesa: 4.27 Smith: 3.03 And of course the all important one of Saves Mesa: 320 Smith: 478 Smith has 1.5 times the saves Mesa has in over 200 LESS innings. That is why Smith is being considered for the Hall of Fame and Mesa will never come anywhere close. One great year does not make someone a great player. Otherwise by your argument we need to include Brady Anderson as one of the great sluggers of the last 10 years. Uh, just so everybody here feels really old. There have been 10 full seasons since Brady Anderson knocked his fifty dingers. He actually did that 11 seasons ago.

Hansen's gonna have a hard time being lights out if he doesn't bring his arm slot back up. Lefties are seeing his stuff too well and absolutely pasting him.