Rob

I understand that PETCO is where fly balls go to die, but the dude's road stats were .212/.225/.317 last year. He sucked ass everywhere he went last year. Is a change of scenery going to have that much more of an effect? Maybe he won't have a VORP in the negative digits. Horray for him. Meh. 200 PA on the road is just 200 PA on the road. In 159 PA in 2006, Ryan Theriot hit .328/.412/.522. How much stock should we put in that? Is Ryan Theriot the best offensive SS in the NL?

I think he had what would just be a bad year most of the time, coupled with PetCo and playing on a god awful team. Or maybe Greene just lost it and is going to suck now. Thats why people who predict guys stats year after year are usually wrong. Greene could bounce back and it could be a great trade for the Cardinals, but If Greene hits 230 with a 650-680 OPS at 6.5m it's an awful trade. We will just have to wait and see what happens. I'd love to see your studies on how wrong they are. I'm sure they're fascinating. I don't need to have studies, it's common sense that alot guys predicted stats don't happen. Maybe saying usually wrong was the wrong word, but their wrong alot. There's too much of a human factor to predict every player stats. Guys have good or bad years, some guys improve, some guys decline or get hurt, some guys have career years and some guys just lose it. Greene drop off this season is just one example. Another one off the top of my head would be who would have thought Nick Swisher would have a worse season in 2008, then he did in 2007 even though he was playing at US Cellular Field. Or even Rich Hill losing it or Ryan Dempster being awesome. So when I see somebody say my stats say the Cubs will win 88 games next year, in December I find it more funny then interesting. So... because there are no certainties, you don't see how projections add any predicative value?

As a Cubs fan after last year, you should have a greater understanding for just how bad an extreme flyball hitter can look in petco... and how much better they can be getting out of that mess.

Not saying it is much... but it makes his line look even worse for the guys just taking a quick glance at it. Give him his expected .09+LD% hits? His line jumps up to .243/.288/.377... not great, certainly... but a good glove and that bat wont kill you. Then toss in some room for improved health, and I don't have a problem taking a risk on that player... especially considering we don't stand to lose much even if Ryan Theriot plays at his peak.

It's not that hard to explain. LD% - 20.6 BABIP - .255 That doesn't explain the power outage. The LD% is actually the second highest of his career. He's never been a high BABIP guy, though a large chunk of that may be due to PETCO and his flyball tendencies. Though even in a normal park he won't be anything but an average at best BABIP hitter. Yeah, his HR/FB tanked, but that BABIP is low, even for him. It's probably a combination of factors... bad luck, nagging injuries, and pressing a bit much because his stat line already looked so poor. The BABIP is low because his HR/FB tanked. Basically take out the few homers he didn't get and you have the entire drop in his BABIP. This would be because flyballs that are homers that all of a sudden don't reach the stands are usually called outs. So basically take the change in HR/FB and count all the HRs he didnt get as outs, and we've got his entire decrease in BABIP. As for the cause in lower HRs. Who knows. Injuries, luck, I don't know. Still none of this explains how a guy who had an OPS over .840 on the road in 3 of the 4 previous seasons (his entire career) and 770something the other year has his OPS drop below 600 on the road. He's shy about 4-5 HR if you consider him around an 11% HR/FB guy. And even if you say he's a lower BABIP guy anyways, (and he is) he averages around .090+ LD%... which he came up 12 hits shy of. The HR/FB tanking only really accounts for half the missing hits. There's still some bad luck involved too.

It's not that hard to explain. LD% - 20.6 BABIP - .255 That doesn't explain the power outage. The LD% is actually the second highest of his career. He's never been a high BABIP guy, though a large chunk of that may be due to PETCO and his flyball tendencies. Though even in a normal park he won't be anything but an average at best BABIP hitter. Yeah, his HR/FB tanked, but that BABIP is low, even for him. It's probably a combination of factors... bad luck, nagging injuries, and pressing a bit much because his stat line already looked so poor.

I think he had what would just be a bad year most of the time, coupled with PetCo and playing on a god awful team. Or maybe Greene just lost it and is going to suck now. Thats why people who predict guys stats year after year are usually wrong. Greene could bounce back and it could be a great trade for the Cardinals, but If Greene hits 230 with a 650-680 OPS at 6.5m it's an awful trade. We will just have to wait and see what happens. I'd love to see your studies on how wrong they are. I'm sure they're fascinating.

It's not that hard to explain. LD% - 20.6 BABIP - .255

It's not. I just like watching a stats guy defend someone with a negative VORP that is being paid 5 million+ It's not that hard. Everything that made him a good risk before this season is still there... it's just somewhat less likely to manifest after last year.

I kinda like Stephen Drew for next year.

Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but wouldn't a 280/350/330 line put him somewhere pretty close to replacement level? For a SS? That seems high.

Keep trying to console yourself. It's not going to change the fact that he's probably going to be the best shortstop in the division immediately, if not the entire league. Now that's probably an overstatement. Busch 3 isn't the death sentence for extreme flyball hitters that petco is, but it doesn't seem that far behind.

And lets remember, MVPs, All Stars, Gold Gloves... all these "honors" mean jack squat, as rarely as the writers and fans get stuff right.

Lee is not going to waive his NT to a team that might contend... If he moves, it'll be to a team that's certainly contending next season. I'm just as likely to play 1B for the Giants next season as he is.

Raines has 63 points of OBP on Dawson. Dawson has 57 points of slugging on Raines. But since we know OBP > SLUG, that works out easily in Raines' favor. Add in that he stole an extra 497 bases while only getting caught an additional 37 times... Yeah, Dawson probably has a defensive edge early in his career, but his knees were so shot at the end of his career his overall defensive value was right around league average... same as Raines.

The extra 750 walks probably has something to do with it.

Do me a favor and look up Jeter's numbers and compare them to any other SS in the HOF. Based on stats alone Bill James has his chances of getting in the HOF at greater than 100% (as only James can). Jeter is a first ballot HOFer. Mattingly is borderline but defiantly should get consideration. He's the Mark Grace of the 1980s. FYI, the Bill James metrics used for HoF evaluations are meant to measure whether they are likely to get voted in... not whether they are worthy of it. Maybe so, but James has him ranked as the 53 best offensive player of all time. Oh, I'm not arguing his worth. He's probably already HoF worthy.

Do me a favor and look up Jeter's numbers and compare them to any other SS in the HOF. Based on stats alone Bill James has his chances of getting in the HOF at greater than 100% (as only James can). Jeter is a first ballot HOFer. Mattingly is borderline but defiantly should get consideration. He's the Mark Grace of the 1980s. FYI, the Bill James metrics used for HoF evaluations are meant to measure whether they are likely to get voted in... not whether they are worthy of it.

He's got a higher WARP3 than Jim Rice... then again, who doesn't? lol, awesome No, seriously. Career WARP3 values Rickey Henderson - 189.8 Bert Blyleven - 147.7 Tim Raines - 131.1 Alan Trammell - 127.1 Mark McGwire - 109.8 Andre Dawson - 107.5 Tommy John - 103.8 Harold Baines - 98.6 David Cone - 94.2 Matt Williams - 91.2 Jay Bell - 88.8 Dale Murphy - 86.4 Mark Grace - 86.2 Lee Smith - 85.5 Jack Morris - 85.0 Dave Parker - 84.6 Don Mattingly - 84.3 Jim Rice - 80.2 Greg Vaughn - 65.3 Ron Gant - 62.9 Mo Vaughn - 61.2 Jesse Orosco - 60.9 Dan Plesac - 52.5 Obviously, there are arguments for peak vs. longevity and all that... but Jim Rice belongs nowhere near a HoF conversation.

He wasn't my favorite, but he seems like a genuinely good guy. I wish him the best of luck.

He's got a higher WARP3 than Jim Rice... then again, who doesn't?

We claimed Brad Snyder off waivers... doesn't that count for something?

Here's my personal list... (based on absolutely nothing) 1. Josh Vitters 2. Jeff Samardzija 3. Hak-ju Lee 4. Andrew Cashner 5. Wellington Castillo 6. Jay Jackson 7. Dae-Eun Rhee 8. Ryan Flaherty 9. Micah Hoffpauir 10. Tyler Colvin 11. Chris Carpenter 12. Junior Lake 13. Aaron Schafer 14. Starlin Castro 15. Dan McDaniel 16. Brandon Guyer 17. Matt Cerda 18. Esmalin Caridad 19. Donald Veal 20. Larry Suarez 21. Tony Thomas 22. Mitch Atkins 23. Marwin Gonzalez 24. Drew Rundle 25. Hung-Wen Chen 26. Dylan Johnston 27. Alex Maestri 28. Jovan Rosa 29. Marquez Smith 30. Roberto Hernandez Other guys I'm keeping my eye on - Chris Huseby, Kyler Burke

I remember Vlad only getting 5/70 guaranteed because he hit the market at the wrong time. Most other years he woulda been a 100 mil+ guy.

I misspoke. Gregg is likely to be a Type A regardless... but that is much less likely to be an issue for other teams if he has a "proven closer" tag attached in FA. Middle relievers aren't generally worth giving up extra draft picks for... some GMs feel that closer are, however.