Rob
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Everything posted by Rob
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We gave this guy a record-setting contract so we wouldn't have to spend money!
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Yeah, absent a Morel trade, the Busch trade foreclosed a lot of possible avenues of roster construction. The Cubs clearly believe in each of their bats. But we're going to have a very hard time adding a starting caliber 1B/DH type because we just don't have playing time for them. If Busch or Morel shows up on day 1 of Spring Training and looks like they've been possessed by the ghost of Brooks Robinson, suddenly all bets are off. Or if there's a good trade for Morel out there. But until then, I think we need to accept that it's either going to be a lesser hitter or somebody with some positional coverage to fill the slot you all keep wanting to put JD Martinez / Soler / Belt in.
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Yeah, I didn't get that. Maybe it was meant give their defensive unit a break, since they'd just been driven deep down the field? When they were explaining the new OT rules, that was the only feasible explanation I could come up with why anybody would want the ball first in OT.
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Yes, but we're enjoying this brief interregnum.
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Kate Upton / Justin Verlander Not even their leaked nudes got that kind of attention. Granted, Jennifer Lawrence and others were leaked at the same time... -
Don't count on the start of Spring Training doing much to create time pressure for either side.
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Yup. Cubs or Reds are most likely to win if you're the type of person to believe in prospects taking a step forward and contributing. Cardinals are the team to beat if you only believe established 30 year olds are capable of winning. Brewers walk a weird line between the two after the Burnes trade, so everybody expects them to be in 2nd or 3rd. And the Pirates exist, I guess.
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Yeah, I have essentially zero interest in Jake Burger. We've got a smattering of major league caliber players who make up a bizarre platoon, but it's looking like a reasonably effective one. Meanwhile, Burger can hit, but he can't field worth a damn. Ultimately, our platoon is projected to give us just as much production as the Marlins get from Burger. There's some value to be had in condensing all of that production into a single roster spot, but it's not worth the likely cost.
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I mean, ZiPS is still generally more accurate as a projection system... But for those looking for hope, these systems do tend to underrate teams with great depth. That's one of the reasons the Rays tend to outperform every year -- when the full gamut of injuries eventually do strike, they usually manage to alter their roster alignment in a way as to minimize the damage. While I don't mean to imply that the Cubs innately have depth in the same vein as the Rays, we do have an incredibly deep farm system. A good chunk of those are in AA or AAA, and for those positions where we lack a potential impact bat, we should still have the pieces necessary to trade for one -- the problem is simply that impact pieces might not be available when we need them. Might have to tough it out until closer to the deadline.
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Given our earlier discussions, I'd like to mention that fangraphs just posted full zips projected standings. Had the Cubs at 81 wins. Lower than Szymborski had suggested.
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ZiPS doesn't care about the provenance of runs. Lefty power hitters, speedsters playing smallball, heck -- it barely cares if you score runs at all, provided you can prevent the other team scoring them via pitching and defense. That said, Ian Happ and Michael Busch are solid power sources. PCA is projected for a low-teens HR total. Mervis, Caissie, and Perlaza may also get some playing time this year and are projected to have decent power. It's not ideal, but it's not a wasteland either.
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PECOTA has been broken since Nate Silver left BP. Fangraphs has us around 81.5 wins using their ZiPS/Steamer blend. Pure ZiPS sees us as 83-88 without any additional moves.
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PCA was 21 years old last year when he made his debut in MLB. He showed a serious hole in his game, striking out way too much. But I've posted two stat lines above from key contributors to the 2016 World Series run. Both of these guys made their debuts at age 21 and had some problems adjusting to big league pitching. Not every prospect is Kris Bryant and comes out looking like an MVP candidate. And as much as we'd like to see the Ricketts family open their pocketbooks, it's unrealistic to expect them to pay for established all-star caliber players to fill in every position where we don't have a Kris Bryant. If the Cubs are going to have any significant long-term success, we need to give guys like PCA a chance to adjust. Just like and
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I don't think that's true at all. Look at Imanaga's contract. There is just about zero chance that Hoyer came in with that monstrously weird contract right off the bat and sat there until Imanaga took it. No, a contract like that is almost certainly heavily negotiated between both sides.
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Yeah, Urias only has allegations of violence against him from one woman!
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It's also worth noting the Cubs haven't had a lot of guys like Bobby Witt Jr. to sign to massive $200M+ extensions. 23, coming off a 5.7 fWAR season, former #2 overall prospect in MLB... The only real comp we have had in the last twenty years is Kris Bryant. And he's a Boras client. Also, Theo was still in charge then. Rizzo and Bryant both had a bit more age and service time on them when they broke out, and neither had quite the prospect pedigree (though both were highly regarded at times). And again, Theo was still in charge then.
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Cubs opening day payroll ranks (mlb) and W-L records under Jim Hendry: 2003 - 11 (88-74) 2004 - 6 (89-73) 2005 - 8 (79-83) 2006 - 7 (66-96) 2007 - 8 (85-77) 2008 - 8 (97-64) 2009 - 3 (83-78) 2010 - 3 (75-87) 2011 - 6 (71-91) Our payroll was well above average during that whole period, and our cumulative W-L record in those years was 733-723. How easily we forget -- Hendry's problem wasn't a lack of spending. It was a lack of spending smartly. He didn't want to pay for a real analytics department or minor league development. We overpaid for role players and relievers. Hendry didn't like pre-arb extensions, preferring to wait to extend star players like Aramis Ramirez until free agency was two weeks away. Having lived through the Hendry era, I'm glad to see the Cubs exercising restraint and spending smartly.
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What's the point of such a specific hypothetical? Is it a reference to a specific rumor I've missed? The general point was that, yes, there are circumstances in which I could see myself giving up a few million dollars in exchange for other various quality of life improvements. But your hypothetical involves so many moving pieces that there's no way to ascertain what somebody might prioritize. Do they have family nearby? Do they like the weather? Do they have faith in their ability to cash in on a subsequent contract? Do they think their kids would make friends easily at a new school? Etc... TL;DR: It depends. It always depends.
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Maybe I just feel this way because I'm boring, but I can't imagine that I'd ever feel the difference between a $100M contract and a $105M contract. I mean, sure, it's five million dollaredoos. But at a certain point, we've already eclipsed more money than I would ever spend in a lifetime. So I would definitely consider the smaller contract if it greatly increased my quality of life over the duration of the contract.
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Yeah, I think we're likely to see a lot of different permutations and combinations. If done well, it could actually be a strength -- to the point that I've soured a bit on spending the money on Chapman (despite being higher on him than most around here).
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So something may or may not have happened, and it may be either good for the Cubs, or bad for the Cubs.
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I'd love to see the Giants sign one of them. I don't like the fact that they're out there with so much money on hand and so little to spend it on. If they can spend themselves out of the Bellinger/Chapman market, that helps us quite a bit.
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A rundown on upcoming features
Rob replied to Brock Beauchamp's topic in North Side Baseball Issues & Suggestions
I barely use the ones we've got. A like button suffices. -
It's possible. But it's equally possible they met at some random fundraiser or something.
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Whatever it is has been deleted.
