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Rob

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Everything posted by Rob

  1. Rob
    So for those of us who haven't had the time to pay much attention to the draft this year... I understand it's supposed to be a relatively weak crop. Are there clear tiers? What are some of the best names we could realistically hope for?
  2. Rob
    I can't wait to see our catcher make four big bunny hops before trying to throw out a guy stealing second.
  3. Rob
    Swanson has put up 5.9 fWAR as a Cub. How to value each fWAR is always in a bit of flux -- subject to the whims of the market, inflation, etc... But $8M per is still a pretty conservative estimate. So Swanson has been worth something like $47M so far. If he's paid out at $52M by the end of the year, he's roughly "on pace" to provide the value we are supposed to get. However, given the aging curve, the reality is that "on pace" is behind -- you expect to get more from people early in the contract and little later on. He was on track with that last year, putting up north of 4.5 fWAR and roughly $35M in value. TL;DR: Swanson was worth way more than his contract last season. He's likely to rack up enough value the rest of this season as to say he hasn't truly disappointed the contract yet. But if he doesn't bounce back to previously established levels next year, the odds of him living up to the contract are low.
  4. Rob
    Yup. All those warts are precisely why he might be available for a guy like Tauchman. The Mets have Nimmo and Bader in LF and CF, respectively. Starling Marte is their RF, but he's out another few weeks at least. Their bench sucks -- they've even played Ben Gamel this season. The Mets desperately need a guy like Tauchman who can start in RF for a few weeks and then move over to a 4th OF role. Meanwhile, the Cubs 3B are hitting .209/.303/.359 this season with the worst defense in baseball. We wouldn't lose anything by grabbing Baty and trying to revamp the swing. Heck, his .229/.306/.327 line is pretty close to the production we're already getting.
  5. Rob
    A guy like Jazz Chisolm isn't appreciably better than Tauchman. But I think you'll find their markets will drastically vary based on age and perceived upside. Right or wrong, teams are going to look at Tauchman as a good fourth outfielder but bad starting candidate. I don't see us getting much for him. Best case scenario is maybe a post-hype sleeper. Maybe a guy like Brett Baty?
  6. Rob
    I had a similar longshot hot take about Julio Rodriguez with the Mariners. The power has evaporated this year but he's otherwise a very similar player to what he's done previously. Went from two seasons of 5.7 and 5.6 fWAR down to 0.9 fWAR this season. He's two years into a 12 year, $209 million contract. They need a guy like Hoerner and we can send Bellinger too so they don't lose CF production right now. More pieces would need to be involved, obviously. But I wonder if it's feasible.
  7. Rob
    We probably aren't clawing our way back in this season, but a controlled sell-off doesn't do anything but help our draft position. Instead, we should be buying on long-term pieces. But if Jed insists on selling, which he probably will, we might as well eat bad contracts in return to help teams like the Braves deal with the luxury tax threshold. We should have room to play with for next year. Hendricks, Smyly, Neris, Bote, Mancini, Gomes, and Barnhart are all coming off the payroll. That should free up about $55 million. Aside from Steele, there's no big raises on the horizon. We can take some bad contracts if it increases the potential return and gets us something worthwhile.
  8. Rob
    Yeah, this take is even sillier than average. We agree with most of Tom's political leanings, at least to the extent that they can be rationally discerned. But they show up in the weirdest and most inappropriate places. They're almost never relevant to the issue at hand -- as was the case here where I said his posts were frequent, irrelevant, and unintelligible -- and he responded by saying it's because of politics. And I'll be honest, I'm not thrilled at the insinuation this board is full of semi to fully retired old white guys. I figured we were all mostly in that late-teens to mid-30's range when we all joined the board 20 years ago. I'd kinda figured the average user of this site was probably mid 40s and nowhere near approaching retirement.
  9. Rob
    He has Mojo's posting rate, with Da Bum level commentary in every post, and HCCF's level of unintelligibility. If you were to create the most perfectly imperfect poster (non-swastika division), you couldn't design him a whole lot better.
  10. Rob
    Living players in the all-time top 30 by fWAR Position Players: Barry Bonds Alex Rodriguez Mike Schmidt Rickey Henderson Cal Ripken Jr. Albert Pujols Wade Boggs* Mike Trout Pitchers: Roger Clemens Greg Maddux Randy Johnson Nolan Ryan Bert Blyleven Steve Carlton Pedro Martinez Justin Verlander Mike Mussina Fergie Jenkins Curt Schilling John Smoltz Tommy John Kevin Brown Clayton Kershaw Max Scherzer Things are looking a little slim on the position player side of things. Steroids and general douchebaggery have taken their toll, as have injuries. But the pitching side has legends to spare.
  11. Rob
    Between 2013-2014, Yan Gomes put up 9.3 fWAR. But that ended up being more than half his career value. Still, he managed to stick around another decade and put up numbers that kept him a good backup option that was often ill-suited to his role as a primary catcher until the wheels finally fell off this year. All things considered, he's had a solid career. He strikes me as the kind of guy who might give it a shot to latch on elsewhere, but this feels like The End even if he hasn't recognized it yet.
  12. Rob
    Pretty rough week across the board.
  13. Rob
    Drop: Mookie Betts ($150) Add: Nolan Gorman ($75)
  14. Rob
    I just noticed Evan Carter is gonna be out for a while. Time for a bench move. Drop: Evan Carter Add: Rhys Hoskins
  15. Rob
    My sentiments precisely.
  16. Rob
    Honestly, given the amount of work you put into this every year, I'm okay with you cheating a bit since it was an honest mistake.
  17. Rob
    His 10/5 rights could be relevant around the deadline. If we are adding (and we ought to be), we will probably need to cut salary somewhere. With Hendricks looking awful so far, he'd be a prime candidate to get moved away. Trade A brings in a couple relievers that take us over the luxury tax threshold. Trade B has us sending Hendricks to a team willing to eat his salary, alongside a couple solid prospects enticing them to do so. But it brings us back under the luxury tax threshold. Or in a bigger deal, he could just be included in the main deal to offset salaries. Hendricks may well get DFA'd immediately on getting to his new team. But he's looking like a guy who could be on the move.
  18. Rob
    I don't envy you the effort it's going to take to get this board to abandon megathreads.
  19. Rob
    For the record, I enjoy the articles. And I have no strong opinions about their location.
  20. Rob
  21. Rob
    rawdog's random reappearances are what make him so beloved. If it was a daily thing, he'd be an annoyance.
  22. Rob
    Damn. Yup. Drop: DH - Mike Trout ($50) Add: DH - Ryan Mountcastle ($50)
  23. Rob
    Baseball has always been the place where facial hair trends are often at odds with real life. If mustaches go out of style, you'll probably see more ballplayers with mustaches. Just sayin'.
  24. Rob
    Doubt we get much there. But a few bucks doesn't hurt.
  25. Rob
    It's possible that the swear filter is fucked up.
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