BigbadB

But, since you don't know which game you are currently playing falls within that grouping (shooting self in foot, other team shooting self in foot, or other), you have to play every game as if it is a game that must be won.

Spoken as eloquently as only Goony can.

Outstanding post. The only thing I would add is that Perez's, Macias' and Patterson's OBP numbers weren't one-year outliers; there is ample evidence in their career lines that those numbers were to be expected. I would argue that doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results not only defines insanity, it defines ineptitude as well. Very well put. I could have continued, but was afraid the length of the post would scare everyone off.

Jose Macias as a pinch hitter this year: .185/.207/.241/.448 That last one is not slugging. That's his OPS. If you were wondering why he was one of the first PH's off the bench most of the season, maybe his 2004 numbers will help: .213/.260/.213/.473 Nope. That didn't help. Hmmm. Just you all wait. I'm going to find a legitimate reason for this guy being on the roster all year if it takes me the entire offseason.

I agree with Raw. It's all about 162 games. You can't take a day off. You go out and try to win every game. The fans who paid top dollar to sit in the stands deserve that much. Games in April and May mean just as much as the games in August and September. Home games mean just as much as road games. Night games mean just as much as day games. Intradivision games mean just as much as non division games.

I'm really looking forward to seeing Peavy shut down the Cardinals twice in one series. Since I live in San Diego, I'll have to show them my support during the playoffs. Peavy 13-7 2.88 ERA Carpenter 21-5 2.83 ERA This series will be all about pitching. He who pitches best, wins. Both teams have offensive weapons. St. Louis is battered and bruised, but will probably still have enough ammo to carry a 5 game series. My prediction St. Louis over Padres in 4 games.

I hear he's a Chicago native as well. Not sure if he was a Cub fan growing up or a Sox troll. :D

Ha! You just reread this whole thread, didn't you? :D

All these managers are getting cut loose for insubordination, and we are talking about offering Dusty an extension. Unbelievable. Would I prefer Tracy over Baker? All day long. Tracy used to manage the Peoria Chiefs. Baker is a long time player in the Dodger organization. I'd be perfectly fine with the ole double switch.

I don't know the circumstances with that. I'm sure Hendry and Baker worked together on a few of those deals. I will admit that I haven't been overly critical of Hendry. This offseason is when I will make my decision on my feelings on Hendry. Not that my decision means anything. :P I can live with another year of Dusty if I have to. However, the discussion of an extension is ludicrous at this point.

Yup. I haven't seen the Cards NLDS roster yet, but Marquis had very good success vs the Padres, so a lot of people thought he may be on that roster but not the NLCS if they make it to the next round. Awesome sig! I need that one for my desk top. Can you send it to me?

You mean the realistic odds of this Cubs regime signing him? Or the odds of doing it if I were in charge? Because I'd overpay enough to get him here. Heck I'd go 4/48 without even thinking hard. I'd go 3/45 and see if I could get a bite. I want Giles on this team enough that I'd think about 4/52 or even 4/56. That kind of cash is almost enough money to buy a house for himself in southern california during the offseason. That might make it worthwhile. But I don't think Hendry places as much emphasis on the things that I like as I do. So I'll be very, very suprised if we end up with Giles. You've been gone too long, Tim. That kind of money won't buy a house here anymore. Maybe 3 years ago, but not now. :D

DLee, my vote for MVP!

Nice list. But, there are 29 other teams in the league. :D

well over 200 Sorry, you're right. I just didn't want to get accused of exaggerating. :P

But, that didn't make it the right decision.... :P

Only problem is we gave up on this thread quite some time ago. It's boring to be redundant. Most of his mistakes were the same mistakes made over and over. This thread would be 200 pages long if we reported in every time he did something that didn't make sense.

I'm trusting ESPN for the accuracy of the stats. For example, I pulled up Jason Bay, clicked on splits, clicked on 2005 splits, scrolled down the page to at bats with runners on to get my info. Granted, not all RBI's come with runners on as a guy can hit himself in with nobody on via the home run. But, each time they come to the plate with runners on, they increase the chances of driving in more than just themselves. Worse yet, Lee did have 107 RBI's, but 31 of those RBI's came from solo shot home runs. Almost 1/3 of his RBI's are his own.

Fun with numbers...... Neifi Perez drew 18 walks this year. Macias drew 6 BB's. 741 trips to the plate nets a total of 24 walks. Dubois and Murton came to the plate 278 times and drew 23 walks. Corey Patterson, who never saw a pitch he didn't like had 5 more walks than Neifi Perez in quite a few less at bats. Todd Walker's 3 year splits (2002-2004) reflect a .295/.369/.903 AVG/OBP/OPS as a lead off hitter in 234 at bats. Dusty let him bat lead off 228 times last year. His lead off stats for 2004 read: .294/.370/.905. He scored 45 runs in 258 plate appearances, or roughly close to 120 projected runs for a full season. As bad as the Cubs were in the lead off spot this year, Todd Walker logged a total of 2 at bats in the lead off spot this year. Yet, he logged 100 in the 6 hole. The OBP in the 2 hole this year was .317. If you think that was bad, the OBP from the lead off spot this year is .299 Our opponents had a .361 OBP from the lead off spot. Neifi Perez had a .305/.341 AVG/OBP from the 7th spot in the order. Murton finished the season with a .383 OBP. 2nd best on the team if you exclude the few at bats Bartosh, Fontenot, Greenberg and Grieve had. Matt got a whopping 10 at bats in the lead off spot. In those 10 at bats, he had a .300/.364/.964 line. Cedeno hit #2 in the order 24 times, or the equivilent of 6 games. His line as a #2 was .292/.346/.679. Derrek Lee came to the plate 354 times with no one one base. 236 times he came to the plate with runners on. Just for fun, Carlos Lee came to the plate with no one on 318 times. He had runners on 296 times. Pujols came to the plate with no one on 317 times. He had runners on 270 times. Andruw Jones came to the plate with runners on 296 times. Burrell came to the plate with runners on 290 times. Miguel Cabrera came to the plate with runners on 330 times. Carlos Delgado came to the plate with runners on 250 times. Chase Utley came to the plate with runners on 265 times. Jeff Kent came to the plate with runners on 259 times. David Wright 257 times. Jason Bay 282 times. Bobby Abreu 282 times. These guys all had 100 RBI's or more. Several had more RBI's than Lee. Just imagine what Lee could have done with a couple of decent table setters in front of his enormous offensive season. After you are done imagining just how good Lee could have been with a supporting cast, look at Jason Bay again and think about how horrible the Pirates offense is and see that Jason Bay came to the plate with runners on 50 more times than Lee did. Did Corey Patterson write himself into the lead off spot day after day? Did Neifi Perez write himself into the lead off spot day after day? Did Jose Macias do it? Nope. Dusty Baker did it. He didn't just do it one day. He did it in 66 games. There were more games where one of the above mentioned players hit 2nd in the line up. Between the two, you get a full picture why Derrek Lee came to the plate with runners on way more fewer times than all the other top RBI producers this year. Henry Blanco ended up with a better OBP than Jose Macias, if that helps put things into perspective. Would you put Henry Blanco in the lead off spot? I don't blame Baker 100% for this teams failings, but I give him about 80% of the blame. Remlinger didn't just jog out of the bullpen when Edmonds was stepping up to the plate. Baker called for him. Everyone in the stadium except Dusty knew not to call Remlinger to face Edmonds. It happened over and over the last 3 years and what did Dusty do? He'd continue to do it over and over as if the problem magically corrected itself. What did Edmonds do? Tore the cover off the ball. Hawkins got pretty brutal as a closer in 2004. What did Dusty do? Handed him the job in 2005. Forget he's one of the top set up men in baseball, let's have him do something else. Dusty ruined him. You can put some blame on LaTroy, but is it all LaTroy's fault that he's really good at one thing and bad at another, and you try to force him to be good at what he isn't good at? Blame can be handed down all over the place. But, Dusty wasn't just a bad manager this year. He was downright horrible. In the last game of the season, did he think that all of a sudden Corey Patterson was going to have a great day getting on base? We knew Neifi and Macias wouldn't. But, what was behind that decision? Why not give Murton another opportunity to lead off? Above, I gave references on why Derrek Lee won't win the MVP. I could care less about an MVP, and I'm sure Derrek would rather have another World Series ring over an MVP. Of course, he'd probably get both in that instance, but my point isn't that Lee got cheated out of RBI's because of the lame line up cards, it's that the Cubs got cheated out of runs that could have made the difference in a win over a loss. And not just Lee. Aramis, Burnitz, Nomar and everyone else throughout the line up. Less outs at the top of the order create more baserunners, which in turn creates more runs, which creates more at bats to get on base more to score more runs. And, contrary to popular belief, I believe scoring runs and winning is contagious and breeds a desire to score more runs and win more games. But, that's just me. Dusty needs to go. Period. If he doesn't go, this team must be Dusty proofed. There can't be a Macias or a Neifi sitting on the bench at his disposal.

I'm not sure how anyone can get excited about Nomar leaving. The possibilities of having Neifi back next year dramatically increase once Nomar is gone. While Furcal could be the main reason for letting Nomar walk, Furcal is not under our control. If Nomar walks, Furcal resigns with Atlanta or some other team (The Yankees could use another SS :D ), you end up with Cedeno and some veteran that Dusty will recognize as the better option than some young kid who hasn't proven himself. If Murton wins an outfield job, will Baker really allow for two kids to play everyday? I think not. Dusty has not even once considered batting Murton in the top spots of the order. If Neifi and Perez are back next year, expect more of the same in regards to OBP at the top of the order and Lee with RBI opportunities. There should be no way any discussion about Nomar not coming back should be happening right now. Nomar actually wants to come back. He not only wants to come back, but he'd play where ever the Cuts want to put him. I'm really scared about this coming offseason. I'm afraid OBP at the top of the order will not be addressed. I'm afraid Preston Wilson, Neifi Perez and Jacque Jones will patrol the defense for the Cubs next year. Why am I afraid? Because Cubs management hasn't given me any inkling of reason to believe they will retain the players that should be retained and no inkling of reason to believe they will go out and sign or trade for the guys they should sign and trade for. I'm not even sure Giles is a blip on their radar screen. Would they be so bold to make a play for Abreu? With Baker's desire to play "his" guys, I'm worried Hendry will want to help Baker acquire his guys.

We aren't that far removed from the Christian Guzman 4/16m contract. CF is basically as hard or harder to fill than SS. Preston can probably get a better contract than 3/7 or 4/8.

The Cubs didn't play their better players most of the season and the Yankees are complaining about Texas sitting their guys for one game? Sheesh. Personally, I think it's awesome. If the Yankees worried more about winning their own games, they probably wouldn't be in this predicament.

And, he could have done a better job of getting on base this year than Neifi, Macias or Patterson.

Pat Burrell's 2003 season looked a lot like Corey's season this year. Burrell turned it around. Corey could to. If it means letting him go for nothing or trading him for next to nothing in return, I'd just as soon keep him as a back up outfielder.

We have a lot of the same views. Although, I'd rather keep Nomar rather than signing Furcal. I'm not sure the Cubs could get 2 of the top 5 free agents this offseason, either. I'd try to trade Maddux to San Diego. I'd do everything I could to sign Giles. I don't have a problem keeping Corey around if the best they can do is give him away. Pat Burrell was horrible in 2003. Horrible. How many Cub fans would have traded for Burrell midseason this year? Patterson could fix his problems with some other team and we'd all be kicking ourselves for helping him pack his bags. Basically, I'd like to see the infield kept intact with Aramis, Nomar, Walker and Lee. I'm fine with Barrett and Blanco behind the plate. Giles and Murton in the corners with Patterson, Hairston and maybe Lofton all battling for playing time in center. Any remaining cash can be spent upgrading the pitching staff and bench.