BigbadB

Well said. That's why there is a playoff. If a team is truly #1, they should be able to prove it in the playoffs. If they don't, I guess they're not the best. And, flukes happen. It's a part of life. A short series does not determine the best, though. As bad as the Cubs were this year, were they worse than the Pirates if the Pirates beat them in a season series, or even in an individual series? Of course not. Just because Houston is in the World Series doesn't mean they were the best team in the NL this year, either. The long season determines who the best teams are.

Also, can you imagine Manny and A-Ram hanging out? They could place bets on who would take longer to run out a groundout. Aramis has been playing with a bad hamstring for quite some time now. How do you want him to run out a ground out? Like Nomar?

Question: What's the single most important thing about your leadoff hitter, almost to the exclusion of all others? Answer: OBP. Hands down. Speed is nice to have, but it's truly a secondary asset. So finding a leadoff hitter and addressing our OBP need are two sides of the same coin. Furcal's OBP this year: .348 (career .348). Way better than Neifi, Macias, and Patterson, yes, but is he worth paying a lot of money to get rid of the middle infield that we already have? Todd Walker's OBP this year: .355 (.348 career), with better AVG, slugging, and costs much much less. Nomar's OBP: .320 this year (which is hardly a good indicator), .367 career. Obviously not a leadoff hitter, but still way outproduces Furcal. Also for much less, probably. So replacing Nomar with Furcal does not address our OBP problem (in fact, it makes it worse), and getting rid of Todd Walker takes away one of our best leadoff/#2 hitter options. Signing Furcal is, at best, a lateral move that costs a lot of money. At worst, it's a steep dropoff in production. And another question for you all: if our MI is Furcal and Cedeno next year, who do you think the backup will be? My guess is Neifi Perez. If Nomar and Walker are our MI, I think Cedeno gets the backup job, and Perez walks. The second option seems in every way to be a big upgrade. It's not just about OBP; it should be also about defense at SS and durability. So the real question is whether you (1) spend big bucks for an excellent and durable all-around player in his prime(Furcal), (2) take your your chances with a medium priced, injury-prone defensive liability (Garciappara), or (3) go with a cheap, talented kid who may not give you much offense next year. I'm not sure about choosing between 1 and 3, but I'd definitely avoid #2. You can't necessarily frame it like this, though. Furcal is not for the Cubs taking. There are 29 other teams that might bid on his services. He may not even become available if the Braves decide to keep him. If that happens, you just took option #1 off the board. Cedeno, I'm assuming, is the cheap, talented kid. He's already ours. He's under contract for cheap. We don't have to go out and get him. Doesn't he make a nice replacement if the medium priced, injury prone, defensive liability gets injured? I say yes. He's also a nice late inning defensive replacement. He also spells Nomar frequently to keep Nomar fresh. Nomar is currently employed by the Cubs until the Cubs decide they don't want him anymore. Once they make that decision (pursuing Furcal would all it would really take) and Nomar's as good as gone. Now, Furcal is not an option, Nomar leaves since the Cubs obviously don't feel the need to reward Nomar's loyalty in wanting to stay, and all you have is a unproven, young player who Dusty wouldn't hesitate to bench for Neifi Perez, who would be brought back once it was obvious they have no shot at Furcal or Nomar. Dusty is the manager of this team. It may not work out this way, but I wouldn't be surprised if it did.

what worries me most about giles is his age & how many years he might want a contract for. 4 years is a long time for a 35+ year old guy imo. his power #'s fell off quite a bit while he was with the pirates too btw so his declining production cannot be blamed totally on pecto. What year are you referring to? The one year he was hurt? 2003? That was the year he started the season injured, and Aramis was basically the only offensive threat they had in the line up. When Giles came back from injury, it wasn't much longer after that, that Aramis became a Cub, along with Lofton and Randall Simon and then he too was shipped off to San Diego, where his numbers REALLY start to drop dramatically. Giles missed 30 games that year and still managed 88 RBI's, and over 60 XBH's. I live in San Diego and watch him play nearly everyday. I'd take him on my team in a heartbeat, and I'm not the slightest bit worried about a 4 year deal. The guy is one of the most physically fit and one of the most physically strong players playing this game today. He could decline and it's probably even likely. However, his decline will still be better than most players ceilings. I'll take it.

Question: What's the single most important thing about your leadoff hitter, almost to the exclusion of all others? Answer: OBP. Hands down. Speed is nice to have, but it's truly a secondary asset. So finding a leadoff hitter and addressing our OBP need are two sides of the same coin. Furcal's OBP this year: .348 (career .348). Way better than Neifi, Macias, and Patterson, yes, but is he worth paying a lot of money to get rid of the middle infield that we already have? Todd Walker's OBP this year: .355 (.348 career), with better AVG, slugging, and costs much much less. Nomar's OBP: .320 this year (which is hardly a good indicator), .367 career. Obviously not a leadoff hitter, but still way outproduces Furcal. Also for much less, probably. So replacing Nomar with Furcal does not address our OBP problem (in fact, it makes it worse), and getting rid of Todd Walker takes away one of our best leadoff/#2 hitter options. Signing Furcal is, at best, a lateral move that costs a lot of money. At worst, it's a steep dropoff in production. And another question for you all: if our MI is Furcal and Cedeno next year, who do you think the backup will be? My guess is Neifi Perez. If Nomar and Walker are our MI, I think Cedeno gets the backup job, and Perez walks. The second option seems in every way to be a big upgrade. Very well done. Nomar does have a good career OBP, but his OBP is magnified by his AVG, rather than his ability to draw a walk. Because he isn't a good plate patience guy, he's better suited using that AVG to hit runners in, IMO. 5th or 6th is an ideal spot in the order for Nomar. I think it's a waste to use Nomar at the top of the order. I'd rather put Murton there.

I think the Yankees helped them out in more ways than one with their financial problems (ie: Randy Johnson/Javier Vazquez and revenue sharing). I think the Dodgers also helped them with Shawn Green and a few other bloated contracts. Don't they now also have a tv deal in place, something they weren't able to do for 5 years after they became a franchise? I remember something about that, but don't recall the specifics.

Should Hendry want Giles here? Yes. Should they pay the ridiculous amount it may take to get him here? Yes. Here are Giles lifetime stats in the NL Central: At Wrigley: .317/.470/.1.173 At PNC (Pitt): .325/.440/1.046 At GAP (Cin): .302/.436/.971 At Busch: .337/.464/1.169 At MMP (Hou): .284/.407/.915 At Miller: .284/.451/1.000 Not once does he have an OBP less than .407. Only two of these have less than 1.000 in OPS. By the way, his sample size in GAP is extremely small since he moved out of the division before Cincy moved in there. Need I go on?

Don't know if Hendry wants him here, and he'd cost a lot.

Have you seen Giles? If he lost power, where did he lose it? He's probably one of the strongest guys in all of baseball. He moved from one of the friendliest hitting divisions to the absolute worst, even with Colorado in that division. My guess is that Giles has made adjustments because King Kong can't hit 38 HR's playing in Petco all year long. Klesko was averaging close to 30 HR's a year in Qualcomm Stadium. He's averaging about 13 in Petco. I challenge you to find someone who has a dramatic increase in productivity since moving into Petco Park. If the Cubs get Giles and had the pleasure of facing Reds pitching, playing in the friendly parks that are just about every team in the NL Central, I'd bet Giles could easily get back to 38 HR's a year. Giles has proven to be a much healthier risk than Floyd, as well.

I don't know about that. Sammy wasn't treated very well by the players on his own team. I think that speaks volumes about the type of person he was. I Maybe Ramirez doesn't want to play in any high pressure cities. Arizona and Cleveland certainly fit the bill, and pratically no one in Anaheim cares about baseball. That would fit in with his very laid back attitude towards the game. Why do you say that no one in Anaheim cares about baseball? They have some of the best attendance in all of baseball.

I don't agree that Floyd has more power. That being said, I was trying to get Floyd last year. I'd rather have Giles, but I would settle for Floyd as a consolation prize. Players do follow their roots on occasion. However, teams don't always treat their local boys well. Giles came to San Diego, but he wanted Jason Kendall there too. The Padres balked on Kendall. The Padres lured local boy David Wells for a hometown discount. The next year, Boston got Wells for peanuts, San Diego wouldn't go that high. Instead, they paid MORE for Woody Williams, who was much worse than David Wells. Rumor has it if San Diego loses Brian Giles, they will turn to Jacque Jones, another local boy.

How well do Sosa and Ramirez get along? The Cubs treated Sammy really bad there towards the end. Of course, he really didn't deserve to be treated any better than that, but the players don't see that part of it.

Furcal is just an aggressive swing or two away from having a below average OBP. This team believes in an aggressive plate approach. Will you still be excited about Furcal if he has a .325 OBP in the lead off spot, while earning 8m+ to do so? And I don't think that team is "much" better than the team the Cubs had last year.

The Wild Card team in the World Series this year had a better record than San Diego. Should there be a sanction against San Diego if Peavy was completely healthy and walked right through St. Louis in the first division series and went all the way to the World Series? Very rarely does an undefeated college basketball team make it all the way through the NCAA basketball tournament. It doesn't take away their great season, and it doesn't necessarily make the team that beat them the better team. The World Series is just that. A series. Either team can win, and in each playoff, any of the teams competing have their own shot of being that team in the World Series. There aren't any "advantages". You go out and make it happen in those series, or you go home. If you think it's momentum that gave Houston the advantage in the playoffs, the teams that lacked the momentum probably need to think about what they did wrong to not have that momentum. I think the only fair thing you can honestly do is not allow teams to use the same pitcher within a 4 game span. In other words, feel free to drop the 5th starter, but every team has to use 4. The #1 starter couldn't be used again until game 5, etc... But, then again.... I really don't care whether they make any changes at all. The Cubs should have beaten the Marlins in 2003. Boston should never have won against the Yankees last year. The Angels just barely got through some very tough series to win their World Series. I absolutely loved seeing the D'Backs beat the Yankees.

copycat!

The Yankees were no lock to win the division this year.

ewwww

I love the idea of having 8 four team divisions. Much better balance. Here's a problem that should be easily remedied. One of those spots needs to be out west. Portland or Las Vegas. It will need to be an American League team. Seattle Oakland San Fran LA LA Angels San Diego Arizona This shifts poor Texas and poor Colorado out of the West. I suppose instead of thinking East/West when you get to the midwest, you go Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Milwaukee and Cubs in the North, and St. Louis, Houston, Colorado and one someone gets screwed being in the South rather than the East out of Atlanta and Florida. That would leave Phily, NYM, Washington and one of Florida or Atlanta in the East. Not bad. In the AL The West would be Las Vegas or Portland, Angels, Mariners and A's, the North would be White Sox, Detroit, Cleveland and Minnesota. The South would be Texas, Kansas City, Tampa Bay and the other expansion team and finally in the East would be NYY, Boston, Toronto and Baltimore. My votes would be Carolina and Las Vegas. If New Orleans didn't just have Katrina wipe out the city, my second votes would be for New Orleans and Portland.

The Cubs pitching staff was 5th in the major leagues with a .250 BAA. Figure out a way to reduce the walks, and it doesn't take as many runs to win more games. Figure out a way to improve your OBP, and you score more runs, therefore making life a little easier on the pitching staff.

If all they wanted was speed at the top, they could've stuck with Patterson in the leadoff role. In 2005, Patterson got in 18 games (3rd most on the team) as the #2 hitter .179/.220 and 32 games (2nd most on the team) as the lead off hitter .211/.263. If he hit .275 AVG (not OBP), I'm not so sure he ever would have lost that job. This team doesn't focus on OBP. They focus on speed and contact at the top of the order. Patterson got 441 out of 631 total at bats as the lead off hitter or #2 hitter in 2004. That's more than 2/3 of a season. Bellhorn was one of the best OBP guys to lead off that this team has seen in the 2000's. The day Baker took over, Bellhorn lost that job. He neither had speed or contact. He was all about OBP. Patterson has been in and out of games for the Cubs since 2000. He has a career .293 OBP. I rest my case.

People want to address obp yet bring back one of the biggest obp killers. If Nomar goes down again, the Cubs are stuck w/ a backup again. Yes, Cedeno could be alright, but as goony says, there's no guarantee of that. Who is the OBP killer you are talking about? The guy who posted an obp of .000 for 100 games this year. Let him go to LA and sit on their DL. Bonds had an OBP of .000 during that same stretch last year. I'd take him and Nomar next year. I'll take that gamble. I'll remember this discussion. If you're right I'll applaud you @ the end of next year. If wrong, I'll give you a some Dusty treatment. :) I take it you spend a lot of time @ Barona. ;) Never been there. Drove by it on my way through Cuyamaca National Park, but that's the closest I've been. I do my gambling in Vegas. :wink: But, I'm not the gambler you think I am. I personally see letting Nomar walk and gambling you can get Furcal as an even bigger gamble than Nomar possibly getting injured again next year. I'm not willing to gamble that Nomar walks, Furcal stays in Atlanta and Cedeno or Neifi is our everyday shortstop. That's the gamble I won't take.

Atlanta's farm system could be 17 light years ahead of the Cubs. What does that have to do with starting Cedeno over a crap veteran player? Dusty's philosophy is that rookies don't deserve to just step right in and produce. They have to take their lumps sitting on the bench and if they can produce in spot duty (which hardly few people can), then they can have another start. If they fail in that start, it's an I told you so. Cox gives those guys the opportunity to succeed. If he did it Dusty Baker's way, the Braves would have finished in 2nd place or worse running the horrible Raul Mondesi and Brian Jordan out there everyday.

Stop gaps and getting guys on the cheap is not the only way you can really screw up a team. Bad trades, releasing guys that shouldn't be released, devaluing players through the media, putting all your marbles in one sack, etc.....are other ways you can get in trouble. Nomar wants to be a Cub. He has already proven he would sign an incentive laden deal. If he gets hurt, he doesn't reach his incentives. Period. No real loss. I also said I'd be fine with going after Furcal. But, Giles needs to be the #1 priority.

People want to address obp yet bring back one of the biggest obp killers. If Nomar goes down again, the Cubs are stuck w/ a backup again. Yes, Cedeno could be alright, but as goony says, there's no guarantee of that. Who is the OBP killer you are talking about? The guy who posted an obp of .000 for 100 games this year. Let him go to LA and sit on their DL. Bonds had an OBP of .000 during that same stretch last year. I'd take him and Nomar next year. I'll take that gamble.

Lawton bombed, but as bad as he bombed as the Cubs lead off hitter, he wasn't any worse than Patterson, Perez and Macias. Between the 4, they had OBP's of .263, .263, .269 and .270. Lawton had the .269. This horrible combination accounted for 354 at bats in the lead off spot. The only thing that salvaged what might have been the all time worst OBP from a lead off spot from any team in the history of baseball was Jerry Hairston Jr. The Cubs waited too long to try and do something about the glaring hole at the top of the line up. What's worse is they had in house candidates that either sat on the bench or played at the bottom. I applauded the effort to fix the problem in going after Lawton, but they were basically already done by that point anyway. When Lawton didn't work out, they could have kept searching (Murton, Murton, Murton), but went back to has beens and never was's in Perez and Macias. Perhaps Murton was better off batting 6th and 7th. There's not as much pressure as batting 2nd. Perhaps you just like to argue for no particular reason. Check Murton's OBP when hitting at the top of the order. He didn't get many at bats, but the few he did were WAY, WAY, WAY better than Neifi, Macias, Lawton and Patterson. Also, look at how well Neifi does at the bottom of the order. Some people are just better suited to hit at the top of the order and others are better suited to hit at the bottom. It's a manager's job to find each guys niche. Most of Dusty's homework was already done for him, however. Neifi has never been a good candidate to hit at the top of the order. Yet, he did it anyway. Our best lead off option never hit lead off all year. Todd Walker. He had 2 lead off at bats in 2005, compared to 100 in the 6 hole. I don't mind you wishing to argue with me, as it helps me further my point. But, some of these arguments are getting a bit lame. You can either show some patience at the plate or you can't. Murton can, Neifi can't. By that deduction alone, Murton is a better candidate to hit at the top of the order. Period! Just to point out how wrong you are about how much more difficult it is for a rookie to hit at the top of the order, Cedeno got 24 at bats in the 2 hole this year, and he hit .292 with a .346 OBP. Once again, way better than Macias, Neifi, Patterson or Lawton. Was Dusty so magical that he could pick the spots that these guys would succeed? If he were that magical, why did this team suck so bad last year? He had his opportunities to try something new (like giving the rookies more top of the order at bats for Lee), but Cedeno and Murton were slid aside for the wonderfully talented at nothing, Jose Macias. PERHAPS, I'm just more willing to give Baker & Hendry the benefit of the doubt from time to time. They've been around the game for a long time. I'm just a mere armchair coach. I know it's in vogue to rip Baker for everything, but I respect that he played the game, and maybe it is a good idea not to throw a prospect into the deep end of the pool. Perhaps it's a good idea for Baker to watch and learn how Bobby Cox threw all 17 of his rookies last year into the deep end of the pool, on their way to another 1st place finish. Different coaching philosophies. One worked quite well. One doesn't. One even has the opportunity to CORRECT his flawed thinking after the 3rd or 4th day in a row of 1-8 .125 OBP from the top two spots in the line up (Macias/Perez) while Lee went 4-4 again. I've made mistakes a 2nd or 3rd time before. I'm human. But, he does them over and over and sits there scratching his head wondering what the problem is. THE PROBLEM IS LETTING BAD HITTERS HIT.