BigbadB

As far as how much more productive a guy with a higher OBP can be, it is rather minute in the big picture. A team needs to value OBP throughout the line up. 21 more times on base at one position isn't much. 21 more times on base at every spot in the line up is massively significant. Cubs batting average in 2006: .268 Phils batting average in 2006: .267 Cubs times on base via hit or walk: 1891 Phils times on base via hit or walk: 2144 Cubs runs scored: 716 Phils runs scored: 865 8 position players x 21 extra hits or walks = 168 times on base Add 168 to the Cubs times on base in 2006= 2059 That still doesn't equal the amount of times on base for the Phillies in 2006. Brian Giles would not fix the OBP issues the Cubs have. But, adding a Brian Giles or JD Drew and several other replacement players that provide an exceptional OBP above what the Cubs players did in 2006 is how the Cubs can score more runs. Only a small handful of teams had a higher batting average than the Cubs last year. That's it. A small handful. However, EVERY SINGLE team in the NL walked more than the Cubs. The 2nd worst team in the league at drawing walks last year (Pittsburgh) drew 64 more walks than the Cubs. The SECOND WORST team. If you look at the top teams in runs scored each year, you'll see a consistency there. The higher OBP teams tend to score more runs. Couple in a respectable OBP with some timely hitting and you really score a lot of runs. AVG isn't nearly as good as a predictor of runs scored.

Where are you getting the .375 OBP vs. the .345 OBP? Who do these OBP's belong to? Jones last year: .334 Jones career: .328 Giles last year: .374 Giles career: .408 I wouldn't have an issue discussing the difference in OBP if you were using numbers that closely resemble both players. Jones and the .345 OBP is a number he's never accomplished in a single major league season, let alone for his career. The .375 OBP for Giles is the worst he's ever put up in a major league season.

Someone explain that logic to me please. Yeah, Scott Moore and his 15 something HR's and 60 something RBI's and his 24/7 media availability would be much better. This would be a good place for :roll:

Scott Eyre, Carlos Marmol and Glendon Rusch for Bonderman? Holy Cow! Are you sure you meant Bonderman? The Tigers would probably take that deal if you threw in one more player. Derrek Lee

I'm glad Kerry is back and I appreciate that he's willing to take a huge discount to stay. However, I do have my concerns about Kerry in a reliever role. He's always had control issues, which is not something that you want to see a reliever have. More than anything, I'm hoping in time he can put it all back together and be a starter again. By keeping him in a Cub uniform, the likelihood is more favorable, IMO, that if that were to happen, it would happen as a Cub.

Chris Harris should be shot for his little dance as well.

I would definitely take him. Jacque Jones is a San Diego native. He's younger and can cover more ground defensively. But, I'm not sure I'd offer up much more than that. I watch Giles quite a bit being here in San Diego. His power isn't really as sapped as people tend to believe. The park effect has really impacted Giles' offensive numbers in a huge way. But, getting Brian Giles might work out well to get Marcus too. :wink:

I've seen this written more than once and I have to disagree. Izturis at SS, Theriot (unknown production level) or Cedeno at 2nd, Pie in CF? An outfield of Murton, Pie, Jones wouldn't be creating any buzz. Zambrano, Hill and what? Prior? Miller? Marshall? Guzman? Marmol? The only strength this team has right now is the bullpen. You are welcome to disagree. You just won't convince me that the team they have now is anything more than a .500 team at best. I do believe that there are players available this offseason that would make this team the best in the NL Central on paper, but Hendry has a lot of work to do to make that happen. I wish him the best of luck and I hope he makes it happen. I wasn't always a pessimist with this team/organization. It was only recently (within the last few years) that I lost my faith. If Hendry can land Drew or Soriano, one of the 3 big FA pitchers and a couple of solid role players (Durham/Loretta/Lugo, etc...), he would restore some of my lost optimism.

With Boras as an agent, you can expect he'll hold out as long as necessary to get his clients top dollar.

Do the Yankees have room on their 25 man roster to add all those guys? I doubt it. How about sending Pie, Marshall, Mateo and Moore to Florida for Cabrera. If they won't do that deal, how about the same offer to send Dontrelle Willis to the Yankees and A-Rod to the Cubs? Maybe the Cubs offer up Wuertz to the Yankees as an added incentive?

One free agent signing will not set the tone. While your numbers are probably close to what these players will receive, what will really set the bar is how much teams are willing to pay for a player's services. If two big market teams are bidding back and forth, the money could go much higher. Furcal got way more than he deserved last year. That's because a team swooped in with a ridiculous offer to ensure that they were the team that landed him.

I mentioned the coaching staff. I also agreed that this isn't a 66 win team as it is currently constructed. I've been one of his biggest critics, as you are well aware. However, it's not a team that can finish over .500 as it is currently constructed. To be fair, I realize the offseason is just beginning and I'm willing to see where this offseason takes us. If he lost Ramirez, nothing he could have done this offseason would have been able to gain my support. Even if Hendry does manage to put together an excellent offseason, I can't simply ignore his faults that put this team in the toilet the past few years. I could forgive him, but it will take a complete turnabout to make that happen. The poor decisions to give players like Neifi and Rusch big money, the poor decision to not replace Dusty and his horrible coaching staff before 2006, let alone at some point during 2006, the failure to make the moves necessary to be a competitive team, his inability to recognize the true weaknesses of the team, trading prospects for a non-difference making 1 year rental like Juan Pierre, etc...

Hendry can't build this team like he's built the last several teams if he wants to be competitive. He MUST provide depth. When a guy like Lee goes down for a significant amount of time, there has to be someone more significant than Todd Walker to stick at 1b. He has to assume that someone could miss a little action. Freddie Bynum and John Mabry don't cut it. He MUST recognize the weaknesses of the team and strengthen them. WALKS Walks in the two most important aspects of the game. They walked less than 400 times last year. Pathetic. The pitching staff walked 687 guys last year. Pathetic. This must be addressed. A long-standing weakness has also been a failure to provide quality hitters in front of the big offensive production guys. Less than .350 OBP guys at the top of the order need not apply. He MUST improve fundamentals. Hopefully, that's already been addressed with a new manager. He MUST rebuild the farm system. This coming July, if it's apparent that they aren't going to make the playoffs, screw the win/loss column. Get some value from players who are not going to be part of the long term solutions. There are other things he must do, but that's a pretty good start. I agree with CubsWin that this is not a 66 win team. They improved on that number by replacing Dusty with Piniella. A healthy Lee improves that number. A full season of Murton likely improves that number. No Neifi batting 2nd improves that number. But, they aren't only an Aramis or Lee injury away from being that 66 win team again. So now, it's time to add some talent and some depth.

Does a posted Japanese player count as a FA signing?

I would like one of: Iwamura Soriano Durham Loretta Giles Lugo Belliard at 2b in no particular order JD Drew in CF Matsuzaka or Schmidt at SP

Wha??? It's his first article in eons. He can't take it down without a replacement. I'm sure he had a victory speech written up for this monumental occasion. Right, Tim?

I'm glad you were right. But, we reserve the right to disagree with you on all future free agent dealings, trades, signings, promotions, firings, etc.... And he reserves the right to disagree with us, in turn. ;) So, how many people went and got drunk for naught last night? Not I. And I'm glad I didn't sit here waiting it out. I admit that I read every post in this thread, but I would have gone nuts sitting there waiting for the final hour. The wife and I went furniture shopping and then we watched the Star Wars marathon on Skinemax.

I'm glad you were right. But, we reserve the right to disagree with you on all future free agent dealings, trades, signings, promotions, firings, etc....

They should be able to provide some sort of evidence that they agreed to this deal prior to the deadline to save the extra free agent signing. If not, Hendry is an idiot. :D

I guess Tim and I can continue this discussion in 5 or 6 years. :D

Let us all hope that Tree did not already shoot heroin into his forehead. Edit: I was about 30 seconds too late on this post.

Cool. Back to just being horrible rather than despicable. Now, get to work and get JD Drew, Durham and some pitching Hendry.

I have never known A-Rod to be a guy that would want to play on a bad team. When he was traded to Texas, they had a very good offense. They didn't win enough for him, so he demanded to be traded to a team that did win more often. I know A-Rod said something before about Chicago being a possible destination, but the Cubs are going backwards in a furious way. I can't see A-Rod waiving his NTC to go to a perennial loser.

Yeah, we can go back and forth on this all day, but we pretty much agree that this Aramis deal isn't the deal breaker with Hendry. It started well before this. And the list of failures is way too long to bother with right now.

I'm not comparing Aram to Manny, per se. I'm just giving an example of a guy I considered to have comparable issues as Aram, yet has continued to stay productive in his mid 30's. Mike Lowell isn't enough of a comparison for me to label Aramis as a lock to drop offensive production significantly. Just as Mike Lowell's recovery from cancer isn't a lock that all baseball players can lead a productive baseball career after a major recovery from cancer.