Yeah I got $56m from Sportrac which has their estimated luxury tax number at $176.8m compared to the $233m luxury tax threshold. https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/chicago-cubs/payroll/ To answer your first reply, how do you see $56m vanishing quickly without Swanson? Yeah Fangraphs has right around 55 too, I guess the disconnect that I can see is they have 14 million for pre-arb contracts(not including 40-man minor leaguers) and I'm not sure how they come to that considering they have 7 players in that bucket. Even doubling it for the likelihood of Estrada, Wesneski, Mastrobuoni, etc being major leaguers, there's only so many slots considering those minor leaguers + guaranteed + arb salaries. One other thing to consider is the major league IL. If a big leaguer is on the IL and replaced by a minor leaguer, you're paying an extra $800k.