nilodnayr

yeah, that's not true at all. after all, he's not playing for free. also, i'd rather have marshall out there than lieber. so i'd say the worst case scenario is lieber sucks, steals $3.5 mil and the cubs lose games because a better pitcher loses starts. or, the cubs could trade marquis/dempster, lieber (predictably) gets hurt, and the cubs are thin in the rotation. Lieber is better than Marshall.

That's funny, b/c I see this as a high risk, low reward type move. Whats the high risk, that you just flushed 3.5M down the toilet? Is that a high risk? Whats the low reward, that he'll be a healthy but decently below average pitcher all year long? I think hes a low risk, medium reward. The low risk is that hes injured and you flushed the money down the toilet, or that he only pitches a half of a year, but either way we have adequate depth in the high minors. The medium reward is that if hes healthy all year long you've got yourself a league average pitcher for 7.5M, which is pretty darn good in this market. Hes not going to be dominant, but league average at that rate and only for 1 year is a bargain I realize the fact that we have adequate depth in the minors is also a reason to not like this acquisition (or any acquisition outside of a truly above average pitcher), but pitching depth is important. On average, teams have to dip into their system for the 4th and 5th pitchers a significant amount of time due to injuries (although signing injury risks is partially due to this).

Vitters: Advanced hitter, good work ethic, well below avg defensively, but can improve to be adequate Veal:Trouble repeating delivery lead to walks, if he can fix his mechanics like in the second half has the size, velo, handedness and secondary pitches to live up to his hype last year. Ceda: See Bobby Jenks Donaldson: Offensive oriented, OBP machine, slightly above average power, but a lot of work to do defensively. Good athelete, good arm, only been catching for 2 years so still learning the position. Gallagher: Polished, at his ceiling, solid repitoire. Aggressive and confident. Colvin: "displaying both impressive athleticism and massive holes in his game" Average tools, solid gap hitter, good arm, but doesnt have the range for center. Can't buy a walk, sucks against lefties. Patterson: Solid all around good average, decent walks, decent power, opportune base stealer, but defensive issues caused the move to the OF Castillo: Seemed to describe a raw Geo. Great defensively, good calling and leadership, decent power, but still raw Thomas: Pretty much Patterson, but sounded like even worse of a defender. Samardzjia: "as right now he's much more of a thrower than a pitcher." His perfect world projection sums it up. Has the tools, but it doesnt translate to performance, fastball is a bit straight, changeup needs work, plus slider, above average command Ohh and Kyler Burke is their sleeper.

I'd love to hear the "Perfect World Projections" for each of the top 10 Actually, they do 11 this year...most of them are pretty lame, but here they are. Geo Vitters Veal Ceda Donaldson Gallagher Colvin Patterson Castillo Thomas Samardzjia

3.5M w/ $4M in incentives. So if hes healthy all year you get a league average pitcher for $7.5M for 1 year, while the going rate is about 4 years $12M per.

I wouldn't say high reward, because Lieber isn't going to be an above average starter for 200+ innings, but its definitely got medium reward possibilities.

Just be happy that he can raise his hand above his shoulder.

Assuming we offer him arbi, if the team who signs him is not picking 1-15, then we get their first rounder and a sandwich (unless the team signs a higher Type A, then we get their second rounder, which is highly unlikely since Elias ranked him in the top 20 of all players (FA and non-FA) this offseason). If the team is picking 1-15, then we get their second rounder and a sandwich. I'm pretty sure on that, someone correct me if I'm wrong.

Why? Why is it so upsetting to everyone to get 100 innings of league average production from the 5 spot as opposed to 200 innings of below average production? seriously? where are the other 100 innings that lieber can't go coming from? also, i don't think it's written in stone that a fat, oft-injured, 38 year old lieber is league average. Gallagher? Marshall? Hart? and are those guys going to be league average or better? you can't just say 100 average innings is better than 200 below average innings without taking into consideration the necessary 100 innings in the first scenario are probably going to be below average. You can't bash the alternatives for the "other" 100 IP as a reason not to get Lieber, because they're the ones going for 200 IP if we don't have him. not necessarily. i'm guessing it'd be 200 innings of dempster/marquis vs. 100 innings of lieber and 100 innings of hart/marshall/gallagher. So then you'll be trading dempster or moving him back to the bullpen, both would be good things.

I've always wondered about that... could we offer a PTBNL and then once the recent draftee is eligible for trade, send him along? Is there a loophole there? PTBNL would have to be settled before Donaldson would be eligible to be traded.

I agree, and if the price is as low as Hart and Veal, sign me up. I'm not enthralled in getting another reliever, but that is a darn good value trade considering the draft picks we'd get for Nathan after he walks.

So if he's a pretty good option for a 5th starter, what is Marquis? The whole basis for people supporting him seems to have been, "he's okay for a 5th starter". So I guess now we have two? I get what you're saying and don't necessarily disagree, but I don't care to see both Lieber and Marquis in the same rotation. Lieber's actually fine for a 4th starter. A good 4th starter is league average, and a lower end 4th starter is a little below league average. That's Lieber, and he's consistently there. Projecting him for a 4.75 ERA or so would put him as an average 4th starter. Marquis jumps around. Last year he was a #3 starter. He's had years where he shouldn't have been in a rotation at all. It's hard to project what Marquis is because of his huge inconsistency. Lieber and Marquis as the #4 and #5 will likely outproduce most of the #4's and #5's around the National League, unless 1 of 2 things happen: 1) Marquis absolutely collapses (another season above 5.50 ERA) 2) Lieber gets hurt, only pitches 70 innings again, and his replacement from the minors is awful. If #2 happens, then it would have happened anyway because the alternative is that replacement from the minors getting all 200 innings. We just have to hope #1 doesn't happen. As I said in another thread, the Cubs were #2 in the NL in their starting rotation last year. Their #5 spot had a combined 5.10 ERA (Miller, Guzman, Marshall, and Trachsel). Z is not likely to drop off much more and might improve back to numbers of a previous year. Lilly will drop off. Hill will likely get a little better. Marquis might stay the same, might drop off a little bit, might drop off significantly. Lieber and anybody who replaces him will likely do better than a 5.10 ERA, so the #5 spot will be better than last year. That makes this rotation of Z, Lilly, Hill, Marquis, and Lieber almost as good as last year. The rotation will likely be top 5 in the NL once again. But if you loop at Marquis' FIP he was a pretty good 5th starter last year, not a 3rd starter. This really is a deal banking on health. When Lieber is healthy hes a low to mid 4s FIP pitcher. Marquis is a high 4-5 FIP pitcher (save 2006). Seems like a low risk (3.5M or so, with adequate options if hes not healthy), medium reward type move. I don't mind it at all.

Ruptured tendon in his right foot, so its the pushoff foot.

Aside from the "I'm in favor of signing Lieber", this post is right on the money. Unless the cubs didn't believe Prior could pitch in the majors in 08.

I say yes because Veal, Marmol, Pie, and Colvin are vastly overrated.

Matt Cain should cost less than Tim Lincecum, correct? It'd be great to get him. Of course since our 2007 draftees can't be traded yet, and at this juncture we wouldn't be able to replace Geovany Soto, it would seem quite difficult. It sounded like in the Rios talks that the Giants preferred to deal Lincecum than Cain because of their worry about Lincecum's injury risk.

Cubs.com has us at 38.

Honestly it seemed like he was joking to me.

No, they gave me a scholarship and now Im a member of the alumni. Its pretty awesome.

The Brewers had the 3rd best FIP in the NL last year so it was really the fact they had the 3rd worst defense in the NL that held their pitching down. When you add in the fact they are in a hitters park vs an extreme pitchers park they had the 2nd or 3rd best pitching in the NL and they should be better this year. 2nd or 3rd best pitching in the NL? I think not. Well if you think not, thats all the rationale that i need

Ben Sheets, Yovani Gallardo, Dave Bush, Jeff Suppan, Chris Capuano, Claudio Vargas, Carlos Villanueva, and Manny Parra say "what the hell"?

Making an offer like that won't solve the Cubs problem at SS. The Marlins would laugh at our offer and hang up. Also, Hanley Ramirez is generally rated as the worst defensive SS in the majors. He'll be a 3b within 2 years, and we already have one of those. Why not just make him 3B now since Cabrera is gone? If he's not changing positions now, I don't think he's going to. Talk has never been about him moving to 3b, its about him moving to CF, which very very likely could happen. If anyone's moving to 3b its Uggla.

Asdrubal Cabrera could move to SS for the Tribe. Why though? I thought Peralta was pretty good. Hes about a win below average defensively. Shapiro called him out publicly a couple offseasons ago.

Will the offense be nice? They were the worst in the AL last year. Are Swisher and Cabrera really going to make up that much of a difference? Owens had 383 PAs of 636 OPS Erstad had 338 PAs of 645 OPS Pods had 225 PAs of 668 OPS Alex Gonzalez had 200 PAs of 529 OPS Thats 2 full time players of sub 650 OPS who are going to be replaced by Swisher, Quentin, and Uribe. And they were 3rd to last in OPS last year and 2nd to last in EQA, so albeit close, they weren't the worst offensive.

Move this to social as mods see fit. So, I got back from the Blackhawks Alumni Association meeting tonight and boy oh boy is McD a marketing man. He kept referring to the Hawks as a "brand" and then would correct himself and say organization or team or whatever. He said things like this all night, mentioned the actual team well after the "business" and the "brand". The entire front office was there, including Blunk. Things of note that are probably already out or coming out in press releases. The Hawks convention is going to be sometime in July. They haven't finalized a date. McD and Blunk are meeting with Gary Bettman in the next few weeks and topic #1 is trying to get the outdoor game. He flippantly said the he new a venue that could give him a good rate. :D April 7th (I think that was the date) is going to be a special tribute night to Bobby Hull and Stan Mikita. He said it was difficult getting Hull on board, there was a lot of bad blood between him and the org, but that he made it very clear to Hull that this was a very important thing for the organization. Other notes: He told the story about how he got hired. It was kinda interesting. Rocky pursued him extremely heavily. Just before the winter meetings, he got a call from someone representing Rocky saying all these nice things and that Rocky wanted to meet with him, etc, etc. He said that he was getting ready to go to Florida that week and he'd call him when he got back but he was very happy with the job he currently held. Well about 5 minutes later he got a call back saying that if possibly Rocky wanted to meet with him before he went to Florida. They had a 1 hour lunch at the Shaumburg Champps that turned into a 4 hour discussion. Rocky flatly came out and said, I want you to be the person to run this organization. After a couple more meetings, he accepted the job. Also, Pat Foley was there and McD had nothing but great things to say about him. Foley has always been heavily involved in Alumni Association anyway and everyone there (well everyone in the world) loves him.