nilodnayr

Evidently the A's aren't going to be making any more trades. Unfortunately though we don't have anyone near the level of Street that we can afford to deal. The Sox are looking for a top bullpen arm. And we know there was bad blood between Eyre and the Sox (and he has a limited NTC). I'd love to get Swisher, but we'd need a 3rd team to get him. With Sherrill and Fuentes apparently staying, suddenly the RP market is thin. Rumors this morning were that Putz might be available. Anyway, where did the Swisher for Street rumor come from? Did someone pull that out of their butt?

I wonder if the Sox will have to pay his $4M buy out. Richar and Massett aren't really useful players, and Griffey is bad, but if the Sox have to pay that $4M buy out, then wow its a terrible terrible deal.

I don't remember, is DeJesus a plus defender? I wonder what Moore wants in return for him. That contract is nice for his production. I get confused - the new CBA did away with a player's right to demand a trade the following season after having been traded in the middle of a long term contract, but some contracts are grandfathered in. Would DeJesus have that right or not? If he would, I'd say there's virtually zero chance of acquiring him. He'd have far, far, far more value to the Royals than he would to the Cubs. I don't see how that would substantially change his value. Especially to the point where the Royals would value him far more. Are you kidding? The Royals have him for the next three years at $14.05 total. With the Cubs, he'd effectively opt out and you'd have to either trade him with zero leverage or else sign him to a market-price deal. I wasn't thinking for a second. For some reason I thought he could ask for a trade from the Royals too. What happens if he asks for the trade and the Cubs don't do it? Does it wipe out the contract? DeJesus won't have the service time for free agency until after 2010. Well either he would go to arbi or it might be like when you DFA a guy and hes a FA.

he signed his deal in March 06 before the new CBA so he should still have that right Do players who don't have 6 years of service time still have that right? That'd be a pretty interesting loophole...maybe thats why since the CBA, we've seen so many arbi/pre-arbi guys get signed to long term deals.

Giles hasn't been with the Padres for 5 years so hes not a 10/5 guy (he was traded Aug 26, 2003 to the Padres). He has a limited NTC to 8 teams. If the Cubs were one of those teams I'd assume he'd approve the trade if the Cubs agreed to decline his 2009 option so he could resign with the Padres. I thought I heard him say somewhere that he'd approve a trade if it improve the Padres.

I think that DePo blog posting was more posturing than anything.

So are the Pirates if any of the prospects they're supposed to get are any good. Exactly. Bay to Hermida is probably a lateral move, with Hermida being cheaper and having more upside. If they get a decent arm or 2 on top of that, they've made out. Florida is really getting screwed in this deal. Hermida and Tucker for 2 months of Manny? boston would be making out great in that trade. i don't know why any team would allow them to really win a manny trade when they're the ones in the corner. I agree and not only that Florida can't offer Manny arb either so they won't be able to get picks? I don't understand the Marlins in this deal at all. Was that part of the agreement that they wouldn't offer Manny arbi? I hadn't heard that. That'd be crazy. I just thought it was that they had to turn down his option. The bit I heard yesterday was that they couldn't pick up the options and they couldn't offer arby. That's what I heard as well. Wow, well thats a bad deal for the Marlins, especially if they are giving up either of those minor leaguers, then it will be a REALLY bad deal.

So are the Pirates if any of the prospects they're supposed to get are any good. Exactly. Bay to Hermida is probably a lateral move, with Hermida being cheaper and having more upside. If they get a decent arm or 2 on top of that, they've made out. Florida is really getting screwed in this deal. Hermida and Tucker for 2 months of Manny? boston would be making out great in that trade. i don't know why any team would allow them to really win a manny trade when they're the ones in the corner. I agree and not only that Florida can't offer Manny arb either so they won't be able to get picks? I don't understand the Marlins in this deal at all. Was that part of the agreement that they wouldn't offer Manny arbi? I hadn't heard that. That'd be crazy. I just thought it was that they had to turn down his option.

Whats the point of Richar? Can he play SS?

I think there is reason to be optimistic but with the injuries negating his speed thats one aspect of his game that is gone (not to mention an injury concern). I wouldn't throw out all of his stats, that 652 home OPS and 104 OPS+ for the year ain't pretty for a corner OF. His 2007 looks pretty sweet, but a lot of that was luck with a 356 BABIP. A guy who K's 25% of the time isn't going to have a consistant 300 BA. Hes young so he has room to grow, but IMO his stock has dropped a decent amount over the last 2 years from certain above average corner OF/occassional all-star to average corner OF.

Then we would have to send a Jason Bay like player to the BoSox... Unless there were a third team involved with a Bay type player and we sent prospects to the third team involved. Don't you mean 4th team? The only guy I can think of that is Bay-like is Dunn. DeJesus and Giles are a step below. Frankly, I think Hermida's stock has fallen to the point where I question whether or not he can be an average corner OF (despite what he did against the cubs).

Then we would have to send a Jason Bay like player to the BoSox...

meh, if you can play left you can play right In Wrigley? From all accounts of many OF's that have ever played the corners there, that isn't true. RF is much harder to play than LF in that ballpark. I'm not exactly sure why they say that, other then that the sun is much worse on the RF than the LF. Usually Wrigley is seen as a spot where it is RF that is the hardest, CF the second hardest, and LF the easiest to play. As for Ibanez, I would be somewhat interested, but not enough to cover the price. I also don't see those two picks as a guarantee. In fact, the best thing for him personally would be to be a type B free agent, because I'm not sure he's going to receive much interest as a type A. I definitely think in Wrigley RF is harder to play than LF, but that doesnt mean that if you are a LF you cant play RF. RF in Wrigley is much much bigger than LF and the well is really deep. The sun really shouldnt be an issue because it sets over the 3rd baseline so unless you take a weird route you shouldn't be looking into it.

But there's a real difference between an 85% chance and a 95% chance. No reason to pin ourselves down to broad phrases such as "likely." Or, look at it this way: Assuming a 1/8 chance for every playoff team for simplicity's sake, going from 85% to 95% chance to make the playoffs increases our odds of winning the World Series by 18%. Or 1.25%. 1.25 percentage points, 18% of the original odds. .85/8=.10625 .95/8=.11875 An increase of 1.25% Are you trying to divide percents by percents? If thats the case then .11875/.10625-1=11.7647% Where are you getting 18% from?

Be careful, it's pretty windy out on that limb. the Braves are 7.5 games back with 3 very good teams ahead of them. Hudsons done for the season, Chippers back to the DL, and now Tex is gone. I think its pretty safe to say they're done. I think he was being sarcastic. As in "way to go out on a limb" with that obvious statement. woosh what does woosh mean anyway? I've seen it posted from time to time, but with little context to help me figure out what the hell it is. And while we're at it, what does FTH mean? From what I've gathered, it's means like "what the hell", but what's the F for? Thanks in advance for your help in curing my internet illiteracy. woosh is the sound something makes when it goes right over your head...such as when some one makes a joke that you don't get or is being sarcastic but you dont catch it and respond with a post that takes what they said seriously

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/8391628?MSNHPHMA Yes, but since if we acquired him, we would get the compensation picks. When throwing around names that we might send to them it has to be better than what they would get in the first couple rounds but we need to think about guys that might be taking up spots on the 40 man or are eligible and might be taken in the Rule V draft.

Over the last two games the Cubs have increased their playoff odds 4.6276% (according to BP) for a current playoff chance of 91.88265%. The last 7 days they have increased their chances by 8.76627%, which is their biggest 7 day increase in over a month. They peaked at 95.49675% on July 11th, but will eclipse that if they sweep the Brewers! Cubs chances are even better if you look at the PECOTA adjusted playoff odds. We are currently at 93.31497%. Interestingly, again looking at PECOTA adjusted, the Brewers dropped 11.3761% over the last 2 games and 16.4197 over their last 3.

I wouldn't say Dunn will come cheaply, but it sounds like there is very little interest in him. While we'd obviously have to give up something better than what the Reds will get back in draft compensation, but that'd sure be worth it for the stretch run (and our draft compensation). Frankly, I don't buy the whole "intradivision" pricetag in a situation like this where one team is way out and the player will be a rental. If the Reds like what we're offering more than 2 draft picks, then why should they hurt their team by turning us down? They aren't competing against us for the rest of the year. Given that Ibanez has some teams very intersted in him with the M's having a big asking price, I really don't think the cost will be that different for the two players. And definitely nowhere near the difference value. I'd agree with this if it was a guarantee that he was only a rental player. But, with Cub's ownership currently in flux, that isn't a guarantee. If Mark Cuban bought the team, there is always the possibility that he could give Dunn a lengthy contract. Are the Reds willing to trade Dunn to a team in their division and then face him for the next 5 some odd years? Unless they plan on signing him to an extention then theres no difference between them trading him to us now and letting him walk in the offseason. If there's absolutely zero market for him, I'd agree. But, if they've got two offers on the table with one from the Cubs and one from the Rangers, they'll demand more from the Cubs than Texas - simply so that if they have to face him constantly for the next five years, they'll get a really good haul from the intradivison team. HES A FREE AGENT AFTER THIS YEAR. Regardless of whether or not they keep him, trade him to the Cubs or any other team, the odds are most likely relatively the same that he will be a cub in 2009 and beyond. Unfortunately, those odds are slim to none, but the point is, tradin him to us now does not mean he will be with us for the next 5 years.

meh, if you can play left you can play right

And crap the years before it. Kotsay hasn't put up a decent season since 2004 and hasn't been healthy the last few years.

Would it make that big of a difference for them? Swisher's numbers aren't really all that outstanding this year either. They wouldn't be replacing Konerko with Swisher (hes already in the lineup on a daily basis), they'd be replacing Konerko with a Wise/Anderson platoon. How sweet it would be to end that Godawful "PAULY" chant.

I wouldn't say Dunn will come cheaply, but it sounds like there is very little interest in him. While we'd obviously have to give up something better than what the Reds will get back in draft compensation, but that'd sure be worth it for the stretch run (and our draft compensation). Frankly, I don't buy the whole "intradivision" pricetag in a situation like this where one team is way out and the player will be a rental. If the Reds like what we're offering more than 2 draft picks, then why should they hurt their team by turning us down? They aren't competing against us for the rest of the year. Given that Ibanez has some teams very intersted in him with the M's having a big asking price, I really don't think the cost will be that different for the two players. And definitely nowhere near the difference value. I'd agree with this if it was a guarantee that he was only a rental player. But, with Cub's ownership currently in flux, that isn't a guarantee. If Mark Cuban bought the team, there is always the possibility that he could give Dunn a lengthy contract. Are the Reds willing to trade Dunn to a team in their division and then face him for the next 5 some odd years? Unless they plan on signing him to an extention then theres no difference between them trading him to us now and letting him walk in the offseason.

OR that lots of baseball teams don't value him correctly. Naw, that couldn't be it. I'd bet its about 75% that, 25% asking price too high.

I would because it would allow us out from Soriano's contract and Manny will be a FA at the end of the year. We'd have our bat for the stretch and then sign Dunn in the offseason. :D Topping the worst OF defensively of Manny and Soriano....adding Dunn! Imagine that of, yikes! I wonder what type of money Dunn is going to get. Well, under my scenario Dunn would play LF, Fukudome in RF, and a yet to be determined player in CF. I know vance but the thought of it made me want to buy season tickets just for the entertainment value in the OF alone! Imagine how fun it would be to watch Dunn launch balls out of Wrigley that might land on the roof tops across the street. It would be nice. So you'd basically trade Dunn for Soriano? yes, because I think you could get Dunn for less dollars and less years than we committed to Soriano. I think while they are different types of hitters, they bring basically the same value as a hitter. Really? I think Dunn brings much more value as a hitter. Not sure how much is offset by the defense, but I don't think it's enough. And Soriano seems to be breaking down quickly. Manny is a career .312 hitter. He is a .320 hitter with runners in scoring position and scoring position with 2 outs. Dunn in no way bring much more value as a hitter. Dunn's best season isn't even as good as Manny's career avg's. A)The comparison was Dunn and Soriano B)Batting Average? Seriously?

In last offseasons rankings Ibanez was solidly an "A". However, dropping off his 2006 season and replacing it with his 2008 season puts him much closer to the A/B threshold. Unless he picks it up in the home stretch, I don't think he'll make it...but it will be close. I would think a move to the NC Central from the AL West would be advantageous to his overall offensive output. Seattle, Oakland and Anaheim aren't great hitter's parks, even though Arlington is paradise. Not to mention the fact that Seattle's line up has been pretty horrific this year. Yeah, I would agree and definitely hope, I'm just saying that he'll probably be on the fence.