nilodnayr

it's one year after the day he signs I believe He signed Aug 15th, but can be included in a trade as a PTBNL.

Yeah, and guess who pitched that day...Doc.

Well that should be the very reason why you should learn sabermetics, not shun them. With sabermetrics you learn about sample size that explains that series.

I think what is meant is that in the vein of OPS, OBP and SLG are weighed equally, but they do not have equal value. Its been said that a true value would need to multiply OBP by 1.8. So Theriot, being a 402/383 (784 OPS) guy compared to say, Peralta who is a 307/486 (793 OPS) is actually better than Peralta despite his OPS being worse. If you multiply OBP by 1.8, Theriot has a 1107 adjusted OPS, and Peralta has a 1039 adjusted OPS. Tango created wOBA that does a better job than OPS by using run values of events. Comparing the two, Theriot has a 355 wOBA, whereas Peralta has a 336 wOBA. Slugging is really important, don't get me wrong, and I've been railing against Theriot for having a terrible terrible terrible IsoP (worst in the league before yesterday, thanks Gregor Blanco!), but that doesn't mean he hasn't been an above average player. Now, that doesn't mean that he'll be able to continue to produce above average results.

Heres a good one for hot stove time...try to figure out who is going to be a Type A and Type B free agent. Its increasingly been a big piece of the puzzle in determining a player's value and how apt a team might be to trading him. The formulas have never been published but, theres some info here. I think USA today publishes the final scores, so I'm thinking a math mind like yourself could approximate the formula. http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2007/10/stats-used-for.html

Hence the Based on his LD% and GB%, hes probably pretty close to where his eBABIP is. Shandler says a true 300 hitter has at least an 86% contact rate and 11% walk rate. Theriot is pretty much there, but as I said earlier, even a dip from 325 to 300 and his numbers will go from looking great to below average. Since Theriot doesn't hit for any power and doesn't have a great walk rate (he has a good walk rate), he is really dependent upon the ball falling for hits when he puts it into play. He is hitting the ball with authority right now, but he could be doing exactly the same thing next month and with a streak of semi-bad luck put up a sub 700 OPS.

Aww, the other thread got locked...I was going to reply to the OBP comment with "guess who has the highest babip?". Is Theriot producing? Yes, absolutely if I thought he is really a consistant 325/400/375 guy, then I wouldn't have a problem with it. The problem is that he is utterly and completely dependent on babip. He has hit a lot of liners and grounders so I'm not necessarily saying hes getting "lucky" now, but I am saying that he is extremely subject to luck. Bad luck and his numbers will tank. Hes got good K and BB rates, but he could really easily turn that 325/400/375 into 300/375/350 or 280/355/330 or worse with bad luck. I guess my point is that Theriots numbers are subject to a lot of fluctuation being dependent on variables he does not have control over. That makes him more risky than a normal player.

I'm confused as to why. The only two years he was optioned were 2005 and 2007. In 2006 he stayed with the major league club all year. I thought it was a similar situation to Corey Patterson who was in the minors and majors in 2001 and 2002, but spent the entire 2002, 2003, and 2004 years with the major league club and still was able to be optioned down in 2005. Is it because 2001 was just a September call up? So then you only get 2 options for players that spend at least a full year on the major league club? Damnit, I thought I had this all figured out. Ronny Cedeno was optioned to the minor leagues during spring training, 2004. Why would a team do this? Was he on the 40 man for a certain amount of time and they had to option him to keep him or something? I don't recall the exact details, but I do remember that when they added Cedeno to the 40-man roster it seemed to be an entirely unnecessary move, as there was little to no chance anybody would select him in the rule 5 and keep him all year. He was not the least bit productive at the time. It seemed at the time to serve only to start his option clock. He was added to the 40-man roster in November of 2003. As jersey says, it was almost certainly a foolish and unnecessary move. Regardless, when he was sent to the minors in March or April of 2004, he burned his first option year. But did they have to burn an option in 2004?

Heres a question. Who is last in the league (among qualified players) in IsoP? I'll give you one guess...

Its true, Theriot took full advantage of getting the starting gig last year to put up OPS of 668 and 520 in August and September. And those are MAJOR league stats!

Meh, go out and get Corpas and Zumaya if they are still available in your league first.

I'm confused as to why. The only two years he was optioned were 2005 and 2007. In 2006 he stayed with the major league club all year. I thought it was a similar situation to Corey Patterson who was in the minors and majors in 2001 and 2002, but spent the entire 2002, 2003, and 2004 years with the major league club and still was able to be optioned down in 2005. Is it because 2001 was just a September call up? So then you only get 2 options for players that spend at least a full year on the major league club? Damnit, I thought I had this all figured out. Ronny Cedeno was optioned to the minor leagues during spring training, 2004. Why would a team do this? Was he on the 40 man for a certain amount of time and they had to option him to keep him or something?

I'm confused as to why. The only two years he was optioned were 2005 and 2007. In 2006 he stayed with the major league club all year. I thought it was a similar situation to Corey Patterson who was in the minors and majors in 2001 and 2002, but spent the entire 2002, 2003, and 2004 years with the major league club and still was able to be optioned down in 2005. Is it because 2001 was just a September call up? So then you only get 2 options for players that spend at least a full year on the major league club? Damnit, I thought I had this all figured out.

Cedeno is out of options and would almost certainly be claimed if you tried to send him down. Are you sure? He was never optioned in 2006.

Topprospectalert.com had him as the Astros #7 prospect.

Chad Reineke 100/35 K/B rate in 112.1 IP in AAA this year. 15 HRs though...he appears to be a FB pitcher, perfect for Petco.

Is Wolf going to net any draft picks after this year?

I wouldn't rule out adding a bat. It would have to be a significant upgrade though, which limits the options and eliminates names like Rich Aurilia. Where though? He's not going to supplant Lee, Ramirez, Soriano, or Kosuke with their production and contracts. Theriot, DeRosa, and Soto are about as good as it gets for their position, and two of those are young guys with the other being under contract for another year(not to mention Fonteneaux's capabilities behind DeRo). That leaves the Edmonds/Johnson platoon, which like I mentioned is torching the ball better than anyone on the team(save for the aforementioned Fonteneaux). I just don't see where it could happen. The cubs could play merry go round with Cedeno and Fontenot, or the back end of the pen. Unless theres a DL roster move, you can't call a guy up until 10 days after you send him down, but they could still play the merry go round until September. I think its stupid, but its not impossible.

I'm kinda confused how they make the connection with Burnett considering he didn't start yesterday. Maybe we were looking at Eckstein. He didn't play yesterday either. I'd imagine if we were going to look at a specific player we'd find out if he was going to play or not.

http://www.thestar.com/Sports/Baseball/article/463960 I'm kinda confused how they make the connection with Burnett considering he didn't start yesterday.

I don't like this.

PULL HIM

He knew he shouldn't have said it immediately after he said it. crap, i missed it don't you have dvr, cant you rewind?

Are you kidding me? Are you watching the game? The old "watch the games" retort... :lol: They're getting Khalil Greened out there!!!

Gotta love Len's comments about the middrift.