nilodnayr

You really think Hairston will be back? The current braintrust doesn't seem to like him too much. I'd guess he's gone, regardless of what I'd do. Outside of that, I agree with everything you said and hope the Cubs management does as well. He's under contract for 2006, so unless we deal him, he's ours. Hairston was a super-two, so I believe he's a free agent. I'm not positive how that works though. I don't know either, but I do expect Hairston to be traded if he isn't gone by his own choice via free agency. A super two doesnt enable you to enter free agency sooner, it only allows you to get an extra year of arbi, hes ours. Hairston isnt the problem, Dusty is.

I would resign Lawton to a Burnitz contract (5M w/ a team option), sign Giles (and most likely have to overpay) to a two year deal probably 18M or so, sign BJ Ryan to a 3 year deal for about 24M, resign Nomar to a 5M base incentive laden deal, resign Walker. SP (30.5) Prior (3.55) Z (5.5) Wood (12) Maddux (9) Williams (.45) RP (11.25) Ryan (8_) Williamson (1?) Wuertz (.45) Novoa (.45) Ohman (.45) Welley (.45) Mitre (.45) vs. RHP (47.67) Lawton (5) Walker (2.5) Lee (8.67) Giles (9) Aram (10.5) Nomar (5) CPatt (3) Barrett (4) vs. LHP (2.35 additional) Hairston (2) Murton (.35) Lee Giles Aram Nomar CPatt Barrett Non-platoon bench players (2.2) Blanco (1.5) Cedeno (.35) Fontenot (.35) People are probably going to frown on the 12 pitchers, but leaving Dusty with a bench of Blanco, Cedeno, Fontenot, Hairston, and Murton forces him to play the young guys. Hairston is really the key because of his ability to back up at 2B as well as be the 5th OF. Plus I believe Mitre and Welley are out of options with not a ton of trade value right now. Im hoping Rusch doesnt pick up his option but if he does, trade him. Financially, by my count that puts us at ~94M according to Cots plus Arbi estimates. The only buyout is .5M for Burnitz, but Nomar and Prior would have somewhat substantial incentive laden deals (talking about realistic 1M +). So that means we should have a few million to work with midseason/next offseason. It'd be nice to sign Milwood, but assuming he finishes the year healthy he will be given a pretty meaty multiyear deal from one of the richer teams that needs pitching help. I would like to resign Dempster to set up Ryan and act as insurance for Wood, but his market is unknown and it seems as though he wishes to start so he too might go to another team that needs starting pitching.

This is what I was referencing: Just seemed a little weird. When I read that for the first time I thought he was going to reference to ummm "gastrointestinal issues". I dont know how medicing tearing his blank would have to do with steroids.

He won't be winning the CY if he tests positive. well then all of us will feel like the 3 day fight with K-whatever over in rivalries was for naught.

How reliable is that website?

WOOHOO, go Washington, they are by far the worst team ahead of us.

Who exactly can we upgrade to? Walker is one of the best offensive secondbasemen in the game and among FA eligible players by far the best value. His defense is average, definitely way underrated. Unfortunately because dusty is a baffoon, none of us can really pretend to know. He absolutely had a 100 game chance to see if Cedeno could step up and man the starting position for 2006. His numbers the past two years suggest he just might be, but for the cubs thats too big of a risk to take. You have to resign nomar and work cedeno into the lineup as much as possible to see if the starting job can be handed over to him in 2007. What do people think about platooning him with Walker and having him sub for Nomar once a week. Get him about 75 starts or so. Would playing him at second screw him up defensively? He definitely is not worth the salary he earns and thats why hes been traded twice this season. However, his contract is up at the end of this year and he will have to sign a contract with much less value. I'd sign him to a contract the same as Burnitz, 1 yr 5M with a 7M club option. Lawton is one of the better leadoff men in the NL and that is something this team has sorely been lacking. OBP is such a concern and Lawton at the top of the order definitely adresses that. I love Matt Murton too but am very suspect of his ability to come close to what he is doing now over a full season at this point in his career. I would love to sign Giles to a 2 yr contract and would outbid the card and stros to do so. With all the money coming off the books, I wouldnt mind overpaying a bit for a guy like Giles. Yes he is getting up there in age, but has shown that he definitely still has it. A 1.024 road OPS is... well just plain :shock: Platoon Murton and Lawton and bat Murton leadoff when he plays. Given the FA class I would not advocate going out and overpaying for a pitcher this winter in such a weak class. If wood is back and can start then we have a very very good starter, if not then we have a very very very good reliever. Either way we are done with him after 2006 and can either resign him for less money or decide to use it elsewhere. Prior, Z, Maddux and Williams are definites. At this point I would say Wood is probable. If everything looks like it goes OK with Wood during surgery and in his immediate recovery then I would not try to sign another pitcher. We have a slew of young guys who should be fine in the roles. Wuertz if not overused is extremely good. Novoa has shown he could be quite effective. Welly is out of options and has been doing well in AAA, Ohman will be a fine LOOGY, Williamson will be an extremely good 8th inning guy and I think Dempster will be resigned as a closer. Hopefully he actually wants that role, otherwise he will most likely go elsewhere. Thats 7, more than enough. Thats a 2.5M middle relief...very nice. And I just realized that Rusch has a 2M PLAYER option. Hopefully he doesnt opt for it, but he probably will, can we waive him? He could be our plan B for Wood. Also forgot about Mitre, does he still have another year of options? I guess too many players isnt a bad problem. I think in 2 or 3 years its going to be very difficult for the cubs unless some of their Golden arms in the minor really step it up. Thats when Z and Prior start to become extremely expensive as well as all the cornerstones (Lee, ARAM, Barrett) contracts run out. I think the cubs window is 2003-2007. After that its impossible to predict.

I only find one post that says "evaluating a pitcher on Wins is just plain ignorant". That's attacking the argument, not you. Yeah that was me and I 100% stand by that statement. By ignorant I meant that evaluating a pitcher by wins is ignoring what actually goes into a win. In order to win a game, the offense actually has to score runs. Which the astros have not done this year for clemens. Top and bottom half of innings are played in baseball and the pitcher (other than of course when they come up to bat) only have control over half of the game. And even then they dont have full control, as they must rely on their defense at least some of the time. Thats why we like to use stats that a pitcher has more control over to evaluate them. I dont mean any of this in a condescending manner, I am just trying to justify the use of the term ignorant.

Most likely they will keep Welly because Dusty will want to go into Coors field with 12 pitchers.

Incase that team falls out of contention and is ready to deal...

I think we will win tomorrow. I was worried about tonight but Maddux really looked good. I expect Carlos to dominate tomorrow and they'll get three or four runs off Roy. Ryan in the 9th still scares the hell out of me even though the save record is good. I'll also pull for Philadelphia to take 2 of the next 3. I'm rooting for Washington to sweep. Philly scares me more than Washington. Washington hasn't been good since the All Star break. They played way over their heads early in the year. Hopefully, they play over their head's tomorrow and sweep the doubleheader. I absolutely agree. Washington is a far inferior team who got insanely lucky in the first half with all the one run wins. If Abreu gets hot again Philly will be really tough.

I'm holding out hope cause, Houston, Florida, Washington & Philly don't look too hot. Houston could really use Kent, Beltran and Bagwell. Just be blunt: Houston's lineup sucks. I'm ashamed - as a fan - that the Cubs got trounced 12-4 last night. Pathetic, when every game counts when playing the WC leader, and a divsional rival. Ensberg IS Houston's offense recently and their whole lineup tee'd off on Rusch and Wellemeyer last night. Yeah that lineup isn't very, but almost any teams can get 12 @ Minute Maid. It's nice to see some off days coming up. Dusty can skip Williams or Rusch. It was announced tonight during the game taht he will be skipping Williams.

FYI #9 and #10 on that list have scores of 88. Clemens last game was an 87. Carp has 11 games that rank 70 or higher, Clemens has 13. Now Clemens may not have pitched as many insanely dominant games but a line of 7IP, 4H, 0R, 0ER, 5BB, 6K (an example of a 70 score line) is pretty darn dominating. Arguably depending on what you consider dominating Clemens has been more dominating.

Well if the Cy Young was going to a team, it would go to the cards...unfortunatley its supposed to go to a pitcher (I acknowledge that often wins are considered although we all obviously know little stock should be put in them). What you dont mention that against playoff teams, Clemens ERA is 1.89 and Carps is 2.47. And against winning teams Clemens ERA is 1.2 and Carps is 2.6....hmmmm. Why dont you stop quoting team statistics and start quoting something the pitcher has quite a bit of control over. Because it didn't seem to matter what the pitcher (Randy Johnson, Jake Peavy, etc.) did last year when Clemens won. Why should it matter this year? Clemens' ERA is lower because he's being coddled, plain and simple. Because evaluating a pitcher on wins is just plain ignorant and I do not condone the continuation of ignorance among voters. If you do, so be it. The unit should have won last year and Pedro should have won it the year before.

Renterias been an absolute hack in the field this year. Leads the league in errors and is .003 away from being in the cellar in fielding percentage among qualified shortstops. Mueller is still one of the better thirdbasemen in the league. Millar is garbage. Walker is just as good as Horny. I wouldnt say that Theo went for D in his infield at all. Renteria wasn't considered really good in the field before he got there?? Why would Theo sign him for such money then?? Doubtful it was for his bat. He was the best offensive SS FA (other than Nomar). He was the best offensive shortstop in 2003 and behind only Nomar and Miggy in 2002. I never said he wasn't good in the field, but you didnt see Theo show interest in Alex Gonzalez, did you?

Renterias been an absolute hack in the field this year. Leads the league in errors and is .003 away from being in the cellar in fielding percentage among qualified shortstops. Mueller is still one of the better thirdbasemen in the league. Millar is garbage. Walker is just as good as Horny. I wouldnt say that Theo went for D in his infield at all.

Wow. Neifi got claimed and Walker didn't. Bit of a shocker. Does anyone think that this means Walker has already vested for 2006? Walker doesn't vest until 525 Plate Appearances, he's not going to vest. Thanks, Cots didnt have the # and roto said it was unknown so I thought it wasnt reported...if he vests at 525, how many PAs would he have needed to vest at 2.75?

I believe in the analysis Matt postulates he goes over 2M, which is a pretty expensive utility man.

Wow. Neifi got claimed and Walker didn't. Bit of a shocker. Does anyone think that this means Walker has already vested for 2006?

And on what basis do you make this claim? He's been hurt the past two season, and he'll be 33 next yr. I'd rather have some younger legs out there, and the Cub defense is pretty brutal. Walker didn't go on the DL last year, what did he injure? He missed some game's last year. Think he was banged up some. Lee, Walker, Nomar and ARam give the Cubs one of the best hitting infields in baseball, but they have to be near the bottom in fielding. Lee saves them from being the worse. Lee is very good, Ramirez is bad, Walker is average, and Nomar is an unknown, although admittedly his skills are deteriorating. Cedeno is an above average fielder, having him around to spell in the middle infield or even start at SS in '06 makes more sense than displacing a good, cheap option in Walker. Good point, if you combine Nomar and Cedeno, worst case scenario we get average defense from ss. So bad+average+average+ really good=average defense.

And on what basis do you make this claim? He's been hurt the past two season, and he'll be 33 next yr. I'd rather have some younger legs out there, and the Cub defense is pretty brutal. Walker didn't go on the DL last year, what did he injure? He missed some game's last year. Think he was banged up some. Lee, Walker, Nomar and ARam give the Cubs one of the best hitting infields in baseball, but they have to be near the bottom in fielding. Lee saves them from being the worse. Definitely not one of the best defensively, probably towards the bottom, but their offensive prowess way more than makes up for it.

I sincerely doubt that the difference between Soriano and Walker is worth 6.5 games. How about six weeks of Jerry Hairston and Jose Macias (and LOTS of Neifi) while Walker was hurt? Good point. Thank you. If Nomar's back, I'd rather go for a defensive 2b like Orlando Hudson. Walker's a good hitter, but he doesn't have much range and his durability isn't that great. Walker will never win a gold glove, but his defense has been right about average(97 rate, 2 runs below average) to go with his bat that is well above average. Add in the fact he's very cheap for next season and I'll definitely take him. Why do you say that Walker's durability isn't that great? This year marked his first year on the disabled list in memory. He hasn't been on the DL from 2001 on, and he played 143 games exactly the 3 years prior to that. Seems to me that he's been quite durable over his career. He has a team option and vesting option correct? Could he end up making more than 2.75 mil. next year?? With Nomar not looking good at all in the field, I want someone who's really good up the middle of the diamond. They can make up some of Walker's loss of production by getting Giles for right, which would be a HUGE upgrade over Burnitz. Cot's According to Cot's he has a 2.5M club option that may vest at 2.5M or 2.75M depending on plate appearances that have not been disclosed. So he can't make more than 2.75M. Most likley being out for a month he may not vest, but probably will at 2.5M.

And on what basis do you make this claim? He's been hurt the past two season, and he'll be 33 next yr. I'd rather have some younger legs out there, and the Cub defense is pretty brutal. I dont exactly remember him being hurt so much, maybe a little bit here and there. According to his game log he went one stretch where he didn't play in 4 games. Other than 2000 hes always played 140+ games. And as mentioned, Walkers defense is not the problem, hes been average. In fact this year hes been above average.

And on what basis do you make this claim?

I sincerely doubt that the difference between Soriano and Walker is worth 6.5 games. How about six weeks of Jerry Hairston and Jose Macias (and LOTS of Neifi) while Walker was hurt? Well in those 29 games from April 11th to May 14th we went 13 and 16. I think you are confused because LOTS of Neifi was because Nomar was hurt, not Walker. So we would have had to have gone 20 and 9, a record of which the cubs have not even come close to during any 29 game stretch this year. Your argument might hold some merit if we actually thought Walker was going to get hurt next year (as far as I know none of us have a time machine), but obviously we dont.