nilodnayr

Skewed numbers is exactly the point. yeah thats exactly my point, if you are evaluating soriano by runs and rbis these things need to be taken into consideration. I just love Sorianos monster 236/274/404/678 outside of ameriquest line. Ohh and Penquin, he only has 21 RBIs compared to 48 at home.

JHJR OBP/Roberts OPB 2005 341/334 2004 378/340 2003 353/330 Career numbers for guys who have been in the league as long as both JHJR and Roberts are skewed. Look at their last 3 years and tell me Roberts is the same.

I bolded the parts I found interesting. I'm glad that neither Hill nor Pie would be given up. And, hmmm, Lawton and Delucci for Mitre and some other prospect? Or maybe just one of them for Mitre? Is Hendry bringing in the Rangers in a 3-way deal to land Lawton or Delucci or both? Looks like that means that theyd be keeping lawton and moving some one else...I'd trade Mitre for mench!!!

I guess that would be true if...um, it werent wrong. The Rangers offense is SIGNIFICANTLY better than ours. They are #3 in MLB in runs, only 9 out of first and we are #16 only 1 out of 18th. They are scoring nearly a run more a game than us. So if you are using runs and rbis to evaluate a ranger player, take it within the context of their lineup.

Thats just what san diego was missing... a 7th second baseman on their team.

:pukel:

Yeah, and Adam Dunn has 125 advantage in OPS but has nearly the same about of runs and rbis as soriano, are they equal players? Runs and RBIs are nearly worthless stats that are not indicative of a players production because they are extremely heavily dependent on the other players in the lineup. Just like wins are for a pitcher. Again, I love Adam Dunn, but what if we can't trade for him? I didnt mean anything about trading for dunn, i was just saying using your stats to evaluate the hitter, you would say dunn and soriano are equal hitters which is one of the more ridiculous arguments posted here. If you cant believe taht runs and rbis are nearly useless stats then I think you need to realize exactly what nees to ocurr for a player to score a run or bat a run in. Unless its a home run, ANOTHER PLAYER NEEDS TO DO SOMETHING. Frankly, when evaluating players I'd like to use stats that they actually have some control over. Thats like saying Kerry Wood sucks because when he pitches the cubs don't score a lot of runs. Dunn and Soriano are both greatly productive for different reasons. What I don't understand is why everyone thinks that our lineup is so far inferior to the Rangers'. Todd Walker wouldn't be any more productive playing for Texas and Soriano wouldn't be any less productive batting sixth for the Cubs. Is that such a stretch? http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/aggregate?statType=batting&group=9 Um, because our lineup is inferior to the Rangers. They score a ton more runs than we do, hence Sorianos runs and rbis.

RBI's and runs don't dictate production No they display it. Production of the guys hitting infront of and behind soriano

Yeah, and Adam Dunn has 125 advantage in OPS but has nearly the same about of runs and rbis as soriano, are they equal players? Runs and RBIs are nearly worthless stats that are not indicative of a players production because they are extremely heavily dependent on the other players in the lineup. Just like wins are for a pitcher. Again, I love Adam Dunn, but what if we can't trade for him? I didnt mean anything about trading for dunn, i was just saying using your stats to evaluate the hitter, you would say dunn and soriano are equal hitters which is one of the more ridiculous arguments posted here. If you cant believe taht runs and rbis are nearly useless stats then I think you need to realize exactly what nees to ocurr for a player to score a run or bat a run in. Unless its a home run, ANOTHER PLAYER NEEDS TO DO SOMETHING. Frankly, when evaluating players I'd like to use stats that they actually have some control over. Thats like saying Kerry Wood sucks because when he pitches the cubs don't score a lot of runs.

Wuertz could also be an option to send down. I agree with Weurtz being sent down. He's having a hard time right now and needs to get his confidence back. Ok, we could send Wuertz along with Novoa, Cedeno, and Mitre. If we send all four down, I want Jermaine Van Buren and David Aardsma called up. I want to see David Aardsma's awesome knucklecurve! JVB isnt on the 40 man. Which brings up the point of what we are goign to do when Nomar and Williamson come off the 60 day DL. By my count that puts us at 41 on the roster.

Yeah, and Adam Dunn has 125 advantage in OPS but has nearly the same about of runs and rbis as soriano, are they equal players? Runs and RBIs are nearly worthless stats that are not indicative of a players production because they are extremely heavily dependent on the other players in the lineup. Just like wins are for a pitcher.

thats outlandish...wed have to throw in Neifi too :D actually considering bowden that could be serious

If we don't make a trade, maybe Rich Hill, or maybe Novoa. Hill? Whos gonna start?

I would. Walker's been one of my favorite players the past few years but I'll take the guy who can go 40/100 while scoring 120 runs in a heartbeat. Runs and RBIs are largely dependent not only on your own production but on the production of those infront of and in back of you in the lineup. Yes, Soriano has the power, but thats not what this team needs. We need guys who can get on base. Soriano and hs 314 OBP (275 away) can stay in Texas, not to mention him costing 3-4 times as much as walker.

I do, but not for soriano.

I wouldnt trade Walker for Soriano straight up.

Ahh, gotcha. Yeah I'd much rather pay in dollars to have him in the offseason than in prospects to have flukey Kearns now. I'm sure Giles loves San Diego, who doesn't, but he absolutely rakes in Chicago and many players chose us despite the weather. But you are right, it doesn't make any sense to sign him to more than 2 years. However, it doesnt make sense for really any team to sign him for more than two years so at least we have that. I'd be very happy to have him man a corner opening day 2006.

Why dont we ask for Kendry as well? :D Yeah, Rusch would be perfect for the Angels, and this year starting pitching is almost as difficult to come by as relievers. I've been all for a big left fielder, but I really think this trade would help the team more and especially in the future as Donnelly doesnt become a FA until after 2007. Plus if I was either team we are looking at for a corner bat (Cinci, TB) I wouldnt be looking for Patterson back, I'd be looking to restock the farm with a near ready and a high reward lower ball pitching prospect. We have plenty of guys who have become expendable in the acquisitions of Williams, Aardsma, and Novoa. Welly and/or Ice need to be moved. This is Wellys last year of options (I believe) so like Francis Beltran, he should be moved at the deadline. Ice has another year still(and hes sucking this year so he probably has little value). So I'd be for putting a package of Welly, Marshall/Nolasco, Greive for Huff, whos been on fire (as expected) in the second half. And he doesn't become a FA until after 2006.

The only problem with Giles is I dont see the padres trading him.

Donnelly was the first thing that popped into my mind when the Angels were brought up. Some how I dont think we would be able to get Brandon Wood :D With K-Rod healthy moving Shields into the set up role, Donnelly is back to the 7th inning and less valuable. That would be a big improvement for this year as well as the future. We've seen how effective and intimidating the Lidge/Dotel/Wagner can be in the NL central, and how pathetic our bullpen has been this year. With Williamson/Donnelly/Dempster being supported by Wood, Wuertz, and Novoa that would be a studly pen (and I guess Remmy if Baker wants to go with 12 pitchers). Send Mitre down to AAA to get steady work and be ready to come up should Hill falter. Send Rusch along with Patterson to the Angels, maybe throw in a pitching prospects for one of their position prospects. I guess depending how good we give up we might be able to get someone decent. Nick Gourneault looks interesting, pretty similar numbers to Dubois but isn't one of their highly sought after prospects. Since relievers are had to come by we will have to overpay but Donnelly is some one who can turn be a stud set up man in the NL for years to come(and specificallyu in Wrigley, IIRC hes a ground ball pitcher). And if we can get another Dubois, who hasn't even used one year of options yet, bonus.

Based on the comments lately and Bruce telling us that Hendry wouldn't do a Dunn for Hill straight up trade, I'm not sure we do anything. TSN said we were looking for a righty which means Kearns, but he just had one lucky year, I dont think hes an upgrade over what we have and getting a righty makes no sense. We should get a lefty to platoon with Murton. Huff (as expected) has been tearing it up in the second half (in July 314/352/616) near his with his post ASB numbers from 2002-2004 of 327/378/566. His OPS vs righties is 70 points higher against righties. We dont know how Nomar is going to do coming back, we do know he will be an upgrade over Neifi, but this team still needs a big bat to protect ARAM and Lee. Williamson looks like hes at top form so that will be a big boost. Wuertz, Novoa, and Williamson can split the 7th and the 8th and if Wood can come back thats becomes a really deep pen. Its been said by almost all in the game, its nearly impossible this year to improve your bullpen. Its a sellers market big time and anything we pick up for the pen is going to cost more than its worth.

Also, as years and money come off of Mannys contract he becomes more attractive, 3 years, 52M (or whatever it is) is much better than 4 years 70M.

Fixing the bullpen huh? Give Baker a $140 mil roster and he could possibly win it all. You must be a big Billy Beane fan then, huh? Seriously, though, exactly how do you believe RC overvalues the walk? (And I'd prefer a quantative explaination w/respect to the RC formula to the generic "walks don't drive in runs" variety.) This isn't a trick question as RC really isn't a theoretically sound model for run production. In actual practice, however, it has proven to be a decent measure of overall production in 95% of all cases. (This would include a comparison of Soriano to Walker...) You think a walk and single should have equal value?? Also, since a home run is a sure run, it's value should be more than 4. I like haveing some guys who can take walks, but I'm sick of the obsession w/ the walk. If the Cubs had a budget of 250 million, perhaps they could find 8 guys who can walk and hit for power. A walk is a lot more valuable than a ball put into play. Just as a win for a pitcher is subject to actions outside of his control so is a hit (unless it is a home run). A home run's a ball in play. Hate to break this but single > walk. hate to break it to you but i said a walk > than a ball put into play...im pretty sure that homers arent counted in balls put into play (at least not when i calculate it) but i could be wrong...lets look at Lee from 2002-2004... When reaching 3 balls in a count he has 249 walks and 86 strike outs. Now since we are talking about walks here lets eliminate striking out by a swing since the batters intention in those situations is to put the ball into play. Now I have no clue if that stat is kept anywhere but I will making the assumption that half of his Ks were looking. Anectodally I think that well less than half are looking, but until I can find a stat to prove me wrong I'll give it the benefit of the doubt. So that means that with 3 balls, Lee has taken 292 pitches, 43 of them resulted in outs, 249 in walks, which if we count walks as bases that would be .853 bases per 3 ball count. Lee has 1725 ABs in the same time period. Hes struck out 423 times so he has put the ball into play 1302 times. 1x his singles (266) + 2x his doubles (105) + 3x his triples (10) + 4x his homers (90) (which I will count as balls put into play here) = 866. So out of 1302 times he put the ball into play he garnered 866 bases for himself or .665 bases per ball put into play. So CLEARLY a walk is more valuable than a ball put into play in terms of total bases (at least in Lees case). Now there is definitely something to be said about the value of moving guys over and driving them in, but just looking at total bases thats a base a game, which is pretty significant. Now feel free for all to tear apart my late night dabble in statistics. There are a lot of other things to take into consideration as well, baseball doesnt function in a bubble so feel free to point them out.

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/btf/scholars/furtado/articles/NewRC.html

Fixing the bullpen huh? Give Baker a $140 mil roster and he could possibly win it all. You must be a big Billy Beane fan then, huh? Seriously, though, exactly how do you believe RC overvalues the walk? (And I'd prefer a quantative explaination w/respect to the RC formula to the generic "walks don't drive in runs" variety.) This isn't a trick question as RC really isn't a theoretically sound model for run production. In actual practice, however, it has proven to be a decent measure of overall production in 95% of all cases. (This would include a comparison of Soriano to Walker...) You think a walk and single should have equal value?? Also, since a home run is a sure run, it's value should be more than 4. I like haveing some guys who can take walks, but I'm sick of the obsession w/ the walk. If the Cubs had a budget of 250 million, perhaps they could find 8 guys who can walk and hit for power. A walk is a lot more valuable than a ball put into play. Just as a win for a pitcher is subject to actions outside of his control so is a hit (unless it is a home run).