I don't think people have said they downgraded in three of the last six years. people said that about 2004, and with good reason. then Marquis, Suppan, Edmonds, Carpenter, Womack, Eldred, Tavarez, etc etc go on to have career years. I will give them the benefit of the doubt when they stop putting bottom feeders out there. I don't care if the bottom feeders always seem to come through, they are still bottom feeders and they are still flukes. see Hart, B.; Simontacchi, J.; Matthews, M.; Benes, A.; Smith, B.; Womack, T.; Tavarez, J.; Reyes, A.; Nunez, A; Rod, J. if you don't see the differences between the Cardinals downgrades this offseason and the moves they made in other seasons, I don't think you are looking carefully enough. the Cardinals have three big boppers, but other than that, where is the offense coming from? even if those three repeat their romp of 2004, there isn't another position on the team that will even approach league average production. they can expect much worse performance out of at least three slots in the rotation after Suppan and Carpenter both had career years and with the terrible Ponson replacing the average Morris. one of the biggest strengths of the team from last year, the bullpen, is decimated. they are probably the favorites, but bare in mind that all these statistical formulations that predict the finishes include accounting for injury risk. the Cardinals have been relatively injury free, save Rolen, the past couple years, and the Cubs have been injury riddled. that is worked into these equations, yet the Cubs still finish within a game or two in most of these analysis. the prognosticators are all making their predictions without Prior, Wood and Miller in the picture, and not taking our leftfielder as any kind of offensive threat or recognizing how much of an improvment Pierre will be over last year, even if he only repeats his career worst performance. I truly think the division comes down to which team is healthiest, which recent history suggests is not a good sign. the Cubs are off on the wrong foot, just like the past couple years. IF our big guns come back by mid May, the Cubs will give the Cards a run for their money in the division. while you don't want to count on it, there still is not a rotation in the major leagues that matches a healthy Z, Prior, and Wood. throw Miller into the mix with Maddux in a contract year, and you're back to the 'where does it rank among the all time best rotation' talk of pre-2004. if two of the three come back AND any Cards star misses significant time, or Rolen doesn't come back to form, or Edmonds slips a little more from what he did last year, the Cubs in my mind are clearly the favorites for the division.