CubinNY

I think you're over-estimating Murton's trade value. There simply aren't all that many teams that can afford his lack of power at a corner OF spot, and especially if he is going to play LF. I'm not sure of too many teams who would give up a decent return for him at all. Now, the sad thing is that Murton definitely does have quite a bit of value to a team, and the way the Cubs are constructed with power at scarce spots they don't really need a huge power bat in LF. So Murton with his high OBP would have quite a bit of value to a team like the Cubs (and any team built like them) but apparently not right now with this team. Cosign. Corner outfielders that post .800 OPSes aren't exactly in short supply. If you believe he reached his ceiling in his first full year. I think he'll be much closer to 875 in the coming years. PECOTA disagrees. 875 is not out of the question but it would be in the upper ranges. Onlty CHONE projects Murton to be below 800 (.792) ops for this year. Bill James has him at 864 (high mark). http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=6307&position=OF

I think you're over-estimating Murton's trade value. There simply aren't all that many teams that can afford his lack of power at a corner OF spot, and especially if he is going to play LF. I'm not sure of too many teams who would give up a decent return for him at all. Now, the sad thing is that Murton definitely does have quite a bit of value to a team, and the way the Cubs are constructed with power at scarce spots they don't really need a huge power bat in LF. So Murton with his high OBP would have quite a bit of value to a team like the Cubs (and any team built like them) but apparently not right now with this team. Cosign. Corner outfielders that post .800 OPSes aren't exactly in short supply. Really? Right now, there are 22 ML corner OF's with an OBP higher than Murton's career OBP. And there are currently 24 ML corner OFs with an OPS of .800 or higher. Last year 14 corner OFs had an OBP higher than Murton's and 21 corner OFs had an OPS higher than Murton's. Since there are 60 corner OFs in MLB, that leaves a lot of guys who would be worse than Murton's career numbers (and he's just entering his prime, so it wouldn't surprise anyone if those numbers got better). Come to think of it, the Cubs could use an OF with a .370 OBP and .800 OPS. Currently, we don't have any of those. Murton would have value to any organization that had a competent management system in place. The question is what would he fetch in a trade? The Cubs are currently killing whatever trade value he might potentially have.

I predicted this a long time ago and took lots of heat. The worst thing for me is that Murton has the ability to at least get on base. LIke I said in another thread, he doesn't hit for enough power for traditionalists like Lou and Hendry.

It's Cubs or bust for me. I hate AL baseball.

In what world is 50% good? When you add that to their other losses it makes for a bad team.

The only people talking about their 1-run record are the people who keep blaming their struggle on luck and blindly expecting things to just even out. Pythagorean record doesn't mean things will even out. You have proof that it won't? Teams underpreform their pythagorean record all the time. The measure is used to determine if teams underperform or overperform based on their RS and RA. It has no basis in reality, it's simply a nominal measure.

That's the point. And there have been quite a few more examples of dumb play that cost the Cubs this year. Luck probably plays a role, but so does poor decision making and poor execution. I conceded this point before I even argued anything else. What I'm arguing against is your contention that that run cost us the game, when there is absolutely no way you can say that the run would have scored had things gone differently. D-Lee as a runner on base when Aramis hit that HR is your own hypothetical. You're accusing me of (and ridiculing me for) coming up with hypotheticals when the situation you're trying to present is just as much of a hypothetical. Him getting thrown out and then the following pitch being thrown and hit out of the park is what actually happened. Him being on base for that pitch, that's entirely hypothetical. Neither you nor I know what would have happend had Lee been standing on second base. I'm going by what actually happend. Lee got CS. Aramis hits a HR. Maybe things would have been different, maybe they wouldn't. It's not luck or fate that is hurting the Cubs, it is stupid plays and lack of execution. "Bad" teams lose close games, "good" teams win close games. That's how they get the label.

That's the point. And there have been quite a few more examples of dumb play that cost the Cubs this year. Luck probably plays a role, but so does poor decision making and poor execution.

Yes, and we all know that pitching from the stretch is so much more effective than pitching from the windup. While, I bet you he would have just blown it past Aramis had he been in the stretch. Or better yet, if Lee is safe a butterfly would have landed on a dandelion and distracted Jenkins just enough that Aramis would have been able to hit an inside the park HR on liner.

That's asinine. Aramis hit a freaking HR. That HR was the difference in the ball game if Lee doesn't try to steal. For the life of me, I cannot understand Cub fans. ITS NOT BAD LUCK THAT IS KEEPING THE CUBS FROM WINNING Tell me, what exactly is asinine about what I said? Asinine:" You cannot really Aramis would've hit that HR if Lee had been called safe or hadn't tried to steal at all." Aramis did hit a HR and Lee did get called out. This isn't chaos theory nor is it the butterfly effect. All we have to go on is exactly what happened. And what happend was a dumb play followed by a HR that should have been the difference in the ball game. So you are trying to argue that the catcher would've called the exact same pitch, the pitcher would've made the exact same pitch in the exact same location, and Aramis would've made the exact same swing had the attempted steal never happened? The play may have been dumb, but you can't just say that it cost us a run because Aramis hit a HR on the next pitch. It just doesn't work that way. You're the one making asinine statements. No. You are trying to argue that there would have been a different outcome in some hypothetical universe where Lee's stupid play went the other way. I'm going on what actually happened. The problem is, it very likely wouldn't have actually happened had Lee still been on base. How in the wide, wide world of sports can you possibly say that?

That's asinine. Aramis hit a freaking HR. That HR was the difference in the ball game if Lee doesn't try to steal. For the life of me, I cannot understand Cub fans. ITS NOT BAD LUCK THAT IS KEEPING THE CUBS FROM WINNING Tell me, what exactly is asinine about what I said? Asinine:" You cannot really Aramis would've hit that HR if Lee had been called safe or hadn't tried to steal at all." Aramis did hit a HR and Lee did get called out. This isn't chaos theory nor is it the butterfly effect. All we have to go on is exactly what happened. And what happend was a dumb play followed by a HR that should have been the difference in the ball game. So you are trying to argue that the catcher would've called the exact same pitch, the pitcher would've made the exact same pitch in the exact same location, and Aramis would've made the exact same swing had the attempted steal never happened? The play may have been dumb, but you can't just say that it cost us a run because Aramis hit a HR on the next pitch. It just doesn't work that way. You're the one making asinine statements. No. You are trying to argue that there would have been a different outcome in some hypothetical universe where Lee's stupid play went the other way. I'm going on what actually happened.

That's asinine. Aramis hit a freaking HR. That HR was the difference in the ball game if Lee doesn't try to steal. For the life of me, I cannot understand Cub fans. ITS NOT BAD LUCK THAT IS KEEPING THE CUBS FROM WINNING Tell me, what exactly is asinine about what I said? Asinine:" You cannot really assume Aramis would've hit that HR if Lee had been called safe or hadn't tried to steal at all." Aramis did hit a HR and Lee did get called out. This isn't chaos theory nor is it the butterfly effect. All we have to go on is exactly what happened. And what happend was a dumb play followed by a HR that should have been the difference in the ball game. EDIT> I do not think the season is over, but at this point in time the Cubs are not a good team. But with the mediocrity that is the NL Central they still have a shot.

That's asinine. Aramis hit a freaking HR. That HR was the difference in the ball game if Lee doesn't try to steal. For the life of me, I cannot understand Cub fans. ITS NOT BAD LUCK THAT IS KEEPING THE CUBS FROM WINNING

Pyth is worthless at this stage. It looks good thanks to a couple high scoring games. I've never liked its inability to account for feast or famine offenses like the Cubs, and that is just exasperated this early in the season. Take out the Cubs 2 highest and 2 lowest scoring games, and their average runs scored drops from about 4.6 to 4.3. The Cubs aren't having bad luck. They are a flawed team having all its weaknesses exposed. People keep talking about the 1 and 2 run losses, but the Cubs have lost by 3, 4 and 5 runs as well. When you are a bad team with a bad record, your record is going to be bad in just about every split. The Cubs need to drastically improve their play, not hope for luck to start going there way. So you think their 0-9 mark in close games is indicative of their true ability? They've lost close games with no scoring, with lots of scoring, and in between. CCP has shown that they aren't losing a ton of games by other deficits. Unless you can point to a specific reason why they'll continue to be mind bendingly bad in close games, then there's no reason to assume they won't correct that, and that's the difference right now between last place and first place, never mind what's in between. Perhaps things will even out. But last night's loss was not bad luck. D-Lee tried to steal 3rd and got called out just before Aramis hit a HR. Even if Lee was safe (which appearently most people think he was), it's still dumb. Cubs win 5-4. Against the Cards stupid Henry Blanco can't get a bunt down then a couple of innings later Cedeno overslides second base on a freaking ball 4. That is not bad luck. In many of those close games the Cubs have done something stupid that contributed to the loss. Not to mention Marquis has 2 pinch hit ABs.

Nice!

Hendry is responsible for each and every reason why they suck. He's the GM. He puts together the team. You don't diregard the poor record because a couple of the guys he got are doing well. So I guess whichever team wins the world title, no credit should be given to the players or manager, but just to the GM for "putting the team together." Hendry is not totally to blame. Yes, this is a flawed roster, and for that he incurs blame. Lou incurs blame for a few questionable decisions (none of them last night IMO) and the fact that he told Hendry repeatedly to not bring anyone else in. The players get blame for under performing what people like Hendry or everybody else would expect of them. There's too much blame here to put it on one person. The Cubs started this season with 3 LFers 0 CFers and 1 RFer. They are starting a guy at 2nd who has played exactly 1 full season in 9 big league season. They have two SS who have demonstrated they cannot hit. The starting pitching has been decent for the most part but he gave long contracts to guys that have mediocre track records and failed to sign the staff ace in the offseason. Thank the stars for Hill, whom Hendry and Dusty tried to ruin. He's paid big money to bullpen pitchers whose one common characteristic is that they are inconsistent. There is plenty of blame to go around but the one common denominator since 2003 has been James Hendry.

I don't think so. I never understood why people were fired up about the season. I think the Cubs are a better than their record but not by much.

It's not necessarily a bad idea as long as things aren't going well. The biggest problem I see is that Lou is in a chess game and Hendry has taken away some of his pieces or not given him the right pieces. He can move them around the board as much as he wants but at the end of the game he still doesn't have the right pieces in position to win becuase they were never there to begin with. How is that for a metaphore?

Because blue will blow the call? no, because it's dumb. why? Because he is already in scoring position and you have a slugger at the plate. Heros is on, I'm out.

Damn you Lee. Yea Aramis!

Lee has been hitting the ball real hard, he just hasn't been elevating.

Yes, Z has had a rough April for a couple years now. Maybe he has too much rest in the offseason. Maybe he's like a good desiel engine that needs to be ran to run right.

Millwaukee beer is much better than St. Louis beer. Pabst Blue Ribbon in a bottle is about the best mass produced "American" style beer around.

I don't know any of those people on this board. I think it's more of a running joke. The one thing I'd like to see is the reference to the thread after the IBL so I can go to that thread.

They're going to need them.