CubinNY

I don't know about statistical noise. ERA gives you exactly the target value that it purports to. That happens to be a poor estimation of true talent and how a pitcher has pitched. It gets better the larger the sample. define "true talent" He shouldn't have to define "true talent." You know damn well what he means. No I don't.

I don't know about statistical noise. ERA gives you exactly the target value that it purports to. That happens to be a poor estimation of true talent and how a pitcher has pitched. It gets better the larger the sample. define "true talent"

I would hope he might have been able to fetch someone better than a part time player for 6 weeks. I don't really care about this trade. Rapada was no great shakes and Monroe is and has been utterly useless this year, I could give a rip about his "career" numbers. If the Cubs resign him for next it may just be the dumbest thing they've done since singing Neifi and Blanco.

Does Wood throw enough strikes to be a bullpen pitcher?

Too soon to tell. He did have 3 errors in less than 10 games though. I am no expert so I don't understand this stuff at all. The Cubs draft a guy like Vitter then both sides wait until the middle of August to get a deal done. Why? or if they are going to wait to sign him, wait until the fall instructional league to let him play. I guess it's all scrimages anyway until the player reaches the bigs. It just seems so odd. The kid hasn't played baseball for months there is no way he can handle the talent he seeing now.

I might add he never really tore the cover off the ball when using an aluminum bat either. Not saying, just saying.

I don't think the Cubs would "collapse into awfulness" as quickly as the White Sox. The core of the Cubs are still in their "prime" years and the pitching staff has lots of young arms waiting to replace someone who falters. Obviously, the Cubs could regress after winning big, but not to the extent of the White Sox. I think they might whether they win the WS this year or not. I don't know why people think Soriano, Lee, and Aramis will be in their prime in 1, 2, or 3 years down the road. The difference is that the Cubs seem to play with a lot more payroll flexibility than do the White Sox. Money can solve a lot of problems.

The Matt Morris trade is one of the most inexplicable trades in recent history. If Littlefield doesn't get fired in the offseason for that trade alone, he might very well be GM for life out there. There is precedence. For some strange reason, Matt Millen has yet to be fired by the Lions. He's far worse than Littlefield could ever hope to be. the reason is that william clay ford can't fire anybody. He also let wayne fontes coach the lions for 9 years, and everyone thought he was going to be fired in at least 7 of those years. Fontes was found with cocaine in his car when he was an assit. coach for the Lions, and Ford still didn't fire him. It's a true story.

why? Not sure if this is a serious question or not. Generally, it has to do with who has the last opportunity to win the game. If you play it safe at home and get a tie, you guarantee yourself another opportunity to bat. I think the point is why ever play for a tie?

Jinx :x :D

to learn how to pitch?

And why do you think that is? They're in the business of driving up ratings and making money. Put a Blue Jays vs. Devil Rays/Royals game on Sunday night and you'll get awful ratings. You can definitely argue that ESPN and FOX have driven this Red Sox/Yankees mania. But the Red Sox and Yankees deliver higher ratings than anyone else. It annoys me too, but it's not going to change. Self fulfilling prophecy. Red Sox-Yankees draw the best ratings because they're all that's ever hyped. If you tell people the Red Sox and Yankees are the only teams that matter, then people will think they're the only teams that matter. But you all have it wrong for the NL, cause we'd definitely be one of the teams they'd include. We could have it a lot worse. Red Sox/Yankees draw the most audience b/c about 1/6 of the US lives between Mid New Jersey and Maine. They don't need the hype.

I know. They went from a pretty good GM to a terrible one. Hopefully he won't land in Chicago once Hendry gets canned at the end of the season.

Except that the Red Sox still lead by 7.5. While the Brewers have, in fact, collapsed. I mentioned this in another thread: Ned Yost has to fired at the end of the season.

[Russian accent]We must burry them. [/Russian accent]

Done

Does anyone really like the soul patch? I mean does Davis look in the mirror in the morning and say, "damn, that's a good look for me." It looks like dried chew spit.

Me too Dave, me too.

yummy?

are they doing a system evaluation or something? So, if I read that right, Tennessee is in with a win. I think it is mostly a coincidence. Bialas was with us in Wisconsin. With the Cubs on the road its an easy drive down for Hughes and Fleita to see all the new guys (Barney, JOhnson, Russell, Hempy, Wright, Smith, Siegfried) How frequently are they there out of curiosity? I know it's a lot of travel, but I couldn't imagine a better job.

I'd settle for Derrek Lee circa 2005. http://www.tedwilliams.com/_data/images/1941s/title3.jpg a walk per game and only 27 (!!) strikeouts Sweet Jesus, he only struck out 27 times at that point?!? What the hell was up with him that year? Doesn't he average like 3 times that many strikeouts otherwise? After he returned from WWII, he never struck out even 50 times in a season. His career high was 64, the only time he was ever 55 or higher. Wow, I really thought Williams struck out around 60-70 times a season. I have no idea why. The fracking dude had X-Ray vision. What do you expect?

That's great, hahahaha :D Bobby Cox does not mess around. To me, he is the best manager in baseball and it isn't even close.

Becuase they have a lot of real good pitchers in the league. Said another way, JS doing well in AA is a real good sign. Some players insist the biggest jump in baseball is from A to AA.

isn't outperforming the expected record based on runs scored/allowed pretty close to the definition of luck? usually when that term is thrown about around here it is to summarize phenomena that can't be proven through various statistical methods. so based on your assertion that it is not luck, does the inverse apply? is there any explanation for this phenomena besides luck? the Cards in the standings posted above are already outside the measurement error. if you consider the rate that all three teams are going, the Cubs and Cards will both be well outside of the measurement error upon completing 162 games, the Brewers on the cusp. edit - I don't think I saw there was a second page of posts before writing this, but I'm still not clear on what you were saying here. Lets say a team over-preforms and that over-preformance is far beyond measurement error. From the standpoint of science, one could to say, "the team over-prefermed the PR and I don't know why. It may be due to luck or it may be due some variable that PM hasn't accounted for." I would think the closer the team is to the measurement error (+/-4) the more likely the results are to luck. Be that as it may, enough games have been played that I suspect the Cardinals, the Cubs, and Brewers will finsih pretty close to their PR. It makes me optimisitic about the Cubs chances.

I'm as numbers oriented as anyone. Heck I'm a scientist. That's why qoutes like the below drive me up the freaking wall. No scientist worth his salt would make such a statement. There is measurement error in any model. And variation is not the same as luck. One does not call everything that cannot be explained by a model luck. I'm glad that the author took the time to invistigate when and why the model can breakdown. The point is to see how well a model fits reality, not the other way around. Aren't we arguing semantics here? Some people would call variation "luck" others would not. Some might, I wouldn't unless I could rule out all other variables (like this article has done). Either way, PM is a pretty accurate molar model of Ws and Ls. It breaksdown at the local level of analysis (game by game).