PECOTA isn't very bullish on Ankiel's offense. But let's say he reaches his 75th percentile projection of .272/.335/.534, pretty awesome for a CF, right? Especially compared with Crisp's .270/.334/.414. Those work out to about a 20-run difference in VORP, not even enough to make up what Ankiel gives back in CF. I get what you are saying in the general sense, but I think you massively underestimate the range of potential values from defense in center field. It was once trendy to dismiss defense when looking at things sabermetrically because defense was poorly understood and generally saying a guy was good defensively was a proxy for saying "Stats say he sucks but I like him." The Cubs lead the league in defensive efficiency, one of three stats most linked to overperformance in the postseason. I'd like to keep it that way. I'll grant that Edmonds/Reed Johnson is a pretty mediocre platoon out there and we should be improving it, but raping our outfield defense isn't the way to do it. Playing Pie is. yeah, defense went from being overrated to underrated in a few years, to the point where everyone thinks a player like adam everett is worthless because he isn't a good hitter. (note - this year his hitting has been SO bad that he really has been terrible, but most years his hitting is enough to make him an acceptable option at SS given that he's an elite defender)