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  • September Call Ups: Bring Me Canario


    Brandon Glick

    In September, the Cubs roster will expand to 28 players. What should the Cubs do with those precious extra roster spots in the heat of a playoff race?

    Image courtesy of © Bryon Houlgrave/The Register / USA TODAY NETWORK

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    Right off the bat, we should note that the Cubs will add one pitcher and one hitter once the calendar flips to September. Among the possibilities, there are some high-profile players currently on the injured list who may be healthy enough to return in time for the stretch run. That group is highlighted by a quintet of pitchers: Marcus Stroman, Brandon Hughes, Brad Boxberger, Nick Burdi, and prospect Ben Brown. The middle three in that list could prove exceptionally valuable to a bullpen that is already overtaxing its best arms, while Stroman and Brown have a chance to make some critical starts in the final series or two of the season. 

    However, the 14th pitcher on the roster is not the focus for today. Instead, I want to hone in on the extra bat the Cubs will be able to add. Miraculously, the Cubs have no positional prospects on the injured list with any proximity to the major leagues at the moment, meaning that they should be able to choose among their treasure trove of talented bats at Triple-A Iowa (Brennen Davis is on the 40-man roster and currently on a rehab assignment, but he’s lightyears away from his MLB debut as he tries to overcome the injuries that have plagued him this year and last). 

    The case for Pete Crow-Armstrong has already been made (and in the comments on that article, the case for Matt Mervis was debated as well), and indeed, I do think PCA is the best option for the Cubs at the moment, given his elite defense, speed, and red-hot bat. However, this Cubs team isn’t lacking in those departments: they rank 6th in stolen bases in the majors and have numerous gold glovers patrolling spots in both the infield and outfield. 

    What these Cubs need is power. The team ranks 13th in home runs and 11th in slugging, though even those middling rankings are boosted by the 22-12 stretch the team has had since the All-Star break (which has featured more than a couple of pseudo-batting practices against opposing position players on the mound in blowouts). Assuming Mervis isn’t getting the call with Jeimer Candelario blocking his path at first base, the Cubs will have a few options from among whom to pick. 

    Both Yonathan Perlaza and Jake Slaughter lead the Iowa Cubs with 19 home runs, and Perlaza especially deserves a look following his breakout year (and .945 OPS). But what if the Cubs want to go for broke, throwing caution to the wind as they hunt down a Wild Card spot? I rise to speak for Alexander Canario, he of true 60-grade (or better) power and hitter of 37 home runs (across three levels) last season. 

    If you’ve kept up at all with the farm system over the last 12 months, you know Canario’s deal. He was engaged in a wicked race with Mervis for the home run crown among all minor leaguers last season, before a devastating injury in winter ball shelved him until the middle of July. There were myriad questions regarding how he’d look upon his return, as he tried to maintain the elite athleticism that generated so much easy torque and power in his swing while recovering from upper- and lower-body injuries. 

    Those questions are still there, but there have been positive signs recently. Though he’s posted a meager .753 OPS in 28 games (~125 at-bats) at Iowa, he’s hit four homers, and they have certainly not been cheap ones. His power--his true carrying tool--is still there, even if he’s working through plenty of rust and understandable timing issues. And the work he’s putting in is already paying dividends: In August, Canario has hit three of his home runs and posted an .848 OPS in just 62 at-bats. 

    Canario, like Perlaza, is a true corner outfielder, though his 60-grade arm (his other high-end tool) makes him better suited for right field than his Iowa teammate. PCA, meanwhile, is a center fielder through and through, though his immaculate glove will play well anywhere there’s grass. 

    The final consideration to this whole equation is the 40-man roster crunch: the Cubs currently have 38 players on the roster, with five more players (all pitchers) on the 60-day IL (who do not account for a spot on 40-man until they are activated off of the Injured List). Want to guess which of the three outfielders listed above is already on the 40-man? It’s Canario. 

    It may seem haphazard and a little short-sighted to bring a prospect who’s only just returning from a career-threatening injury up to the big leagues in the midst of a playoff push, but come on. Have you seen what this guy does to baseballs? Even if only as a right-handed power bat off the bench, or a platoon or matchup protection for one of the everyday starters, Canario can offer this Cubs team some value in a space in which it’s not particularly dominant. The Cubs already blew our minds by electing to buy at the deadline; why not keep the good times rolling? 

    And by “good times”, I mean bring moonshots like these to Clark and Addison.

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    I'm not sure about this. Canario is just another high strikeout, boom or bust bat. The lineup needs more consistency. 

    But the team definitely needs more power. So I see where you're coming from. Not sure if they can get it this time of year.

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    Canario is struggling.  He's got some big power, but the swing and the miss issues he seemingly remedied last year have come charging back.  I'm not writing him off, but I'm not bringing him up right now, either.  PCA is a definite yes, and they already have a 4 man shuffling OF in Bellinger-Suzuki-Happ-Tauchman.  Canario needs PA's in AAA to make up for missed time.  Maybe later in September when Iowa is done, but I want  him playing as much as possible right now.

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    11 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

    Why not both? 

    I suspect they're going to want to use some of the spots to add to the bullpen. Though, now that I think about it, I believe basically all the realistic options already are on the 40 man. 

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    1 hour ago, Derek_Lee_Truther said:

    I'm not sure about this. Canario is just another high strikeout, boom or bust bat. The lineup needs more consistency. 

    But the team definitely needs more power. So I see where you're coming from. Not sure if they can get it this time of year.

    He certainly has high strikeout numbers - it's just a part of his game no doubt. But this Cubs team actually won't be burned by that. All of Madrigal, Happ, Hoerner, Swanson, Bellinger and even Seiya have above-average contact rates. A little trade-off for some extra pop (like Morel is) could balance out the lineup.

    Plus the team is just horrendous against lefties right now, and Canario crushes them. 

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    1 hour ago, Tryptamine said:

    If I'm bringing someone other than Mervis, it's Perlaza

    I tend to think this is what the Cubs will actually do. It's really just a question of if the Cubs want Perlaza on the 40-man all offseason (as opposed to taking the chance and trying to resign him as a priority minor league free agent). 

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    1 hour ago, 1908_Cubs said:

    Canario is struggling.  He's got some big power, but the swing and the miss issues he seemingly remedied last year have come charging back.  I'm not writing him off, but I'm not bringing him up right now, either.  PCA is a definite yes, and they already have a 4 man shuffling OF in Bellinger-Suzuki-Happ-Tauchman.  Canario needs PA's in AAA to make up for missed time.  Maybe later in September when Iowa is done, but I want  him playing as much as possible right now.

    Absolutely valid take on Canario. His development is the most important factor in play. 

    But the Cubs stink against left-handed pitching (they have a 90 wRC+ against them since the all-star break). Canario could platoon/pinch-hit and still draw enough playing time to learn the ins-and-outs of the majors. And his position of already being on the 40-man is a huge leg up in his favor. 

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    33 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

    Why not both? 

    They only get two extra roster spots in September, and only one of which can be a pitcher. There is no way the Cubs don't add to the pen, especially with how taxed all their arms currently are. 

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    PCA has one of the best flyball rate in professional baseball this year. He's going to hit for plenty of power and adding another high level athlete like that, to strengthen a strength, is not a bad thing, IMO.

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    12 minutes ago, Brandon Glick said:

    Absolutely valid take on Canario. His development is the most important factor in play. 

    But the Cubs stink against left-handed pitching (they have a 90 wRC+ against them since the all-star break). Canario could platoon/pinch-hit and still draw enough playing time to learn the ins-and-outs of the majors. And his position of already being on the 40-man is a huge leg up in his favor. 

    Yeah, that's a good counter point.  I'm still on team "let Canario feast in AAA" but there's an argument for him being a useful platoon bench bat for sure.

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    Of course I horsefeathers talk Canario again and all he does is have 3 hits and a monster home run.  Maybe I'm an idiot.

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    2 hours ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

    PCA has one of the best flyball rate in professional baseball this year. He's going to hit for plenty of power and adding another high level athlete like that, to strengthen a strength, is not a bad thing, IMO.

    Oh absolutely PCA is as ready as anyone - I think Canario might just fit better as a lefty-masher. But PCA is the guy I'll clamor for most

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    9 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

    Of course I horsefeathers talk Canario again and all he does is have 3 hits and a monster home run.  Maybe I'm an idiot.

    Maybe you should keep talking bad about him - he's using you as motivation😅

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    43 minutes ago, Brandon Glick said:

    Maybe you should keep talking bad about him - he's using you as motivation😅

    Man, maybe I should start talking horsefeathers about Michael McAvene and Casey Opitz.  HoF here they come!

    Edited by 1908_Cubs
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    I'll happily continue to trash talk him.  I know we have pixels to fill here and that's fine, but we're not seriously talking about bringing up a guy with a .784 OPS in a hitters' park in a hitters' league when there's a half-dozen significantly better options sitting in Iowa.

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    15 hours ago, Hairyducked Idiot said:

    I'll happily continue to trash talk him.  I know we have pixels to fill here and that's fine, but we're not seriously talking about bringing up a guy with a .784 OPS in a hitters' park in a hitters' league when there's a half-dozen significantly better options sitting in Iowa.

    I actually sort of changed my mind since yesterday. I did a deeper dive on him and he's crushing it right now.

    Coming back from a devastating injury, he was always gonna struggle. But in the last 12 games his OPS is over .900. He's back to where he was at the end of last year. And that was a damn good player.

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    15 hours ago, Hairyducked Idiot said:

    I'll happily continue to trash talk him.  I know we have pixels to fill here and that's fine, but we're not seriously talking about bringing up a guy with a .784 OPS in a hitters' park in a hitters' league when there's a half-dozen significantly better options sitting in Iowa.

    I don't want Canario called up, but the additional context is Canario had a .924 OPS in Iowa last year in limited time, and has been rehabbing a significant injury where rust is a big component in his 2023 numbers.  As a simple illustration, he has a .986 OPS in August after a .636 OPS in his first 2 weeks at Iowa in July.

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    12 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

    I don't want Canario called up, but the additional context is Canario had a .924 OPS in Iowa last year in limited time, and has been rehabbing a significant injury where rust is a big component in his 2023 numbers.  As a simple illustration, he has a .986 OPS in August after a .636 OPS in his first 2 weeks at Iowa in July.

    He should change his handle to "No Context Kyle"

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    My issue remains that the swing and the miss is just massive.  The ISO is fun, the power is fun, the OPS/wRC+ is good, but none of these correlate to MLB success like contact ability (which remains the best indicator of next level success).  There was a really cool study done recently (tweet embedded below) that that talks about bat speed, bat to ball, and swing decisions and how they relate to dealing with better and better stuff.  

    As you can see from the chart, bat to ball matters more and more when we get to a point of elite stuff.  Canario, even over his strong run, has a whopping 33.8% K%.  His bat to ball skills right now, aren't there.  Is it rust from the injury?  Is it a step backwards in development?  I don't have an answer to either question, but I do know that he's probably going to struggle until that goes back to what we saw in 2022 (if it ever does).  

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    1 minute ago, 1908_Cubs said:

    My issue remains that the swing and the miss is just massive.  The ISO is fun, the power is fun, the OPS/wRC+ is good, but none of these correlate to MLB success like contact ability (which remains the best indicator of next level success).  There was a really cool study done recently (tweet embedded below) that that talks about bat speed, bat to ball, and swing decisions and how they relate to dealing with better and better stuff.  

    As you can see from the chart, bat to ball matters more and more when we get to a point of elite stuff.  Canario, even over his strong run, has a whopping 33.8% K%.  His bat to ball skills right now, aren't there.  Is it rust from the injury?  Is it a step backwards in development?  I don't have an answer to either question, but I do know that he's probably going to struggle until that goes back to what we saw in 2022 (if it ever does).  

    Agreed, the person in me who likes shiny things could see him taking the minimal playing time that Wisdom currently has, but also the swing and miss is severe enough at AAA that I don't really have any confidence he'd be better than the current version of Wisdom.  Maybe you could get a bounce where he can rip a bunch of XBH in the few weeks it takes MLB teams to dial in their plan of attack against him, but 'hopefully his inevitable struggles happen after we've snuck in some good performance first' isn't good process for a call up.

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    26 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

    I don't want Canario called up, but the additional context is Canario had a .924 OPS in Iowa last year in limited time, and has been rehabbing a significant injury where rust is a big component in his 2023 numbers.  As a simple illustration, he has a .986 OPS in August after a .636 OPS in his first 2 weeks at Iowa in July.

     

    34 minutes ago, Derek_Lee_Truther said:

    I actually sort of changed my mind since yesterday. I did a deeper dive on him and he's crushing it right now.

    Coming back from a devastating injury, he was always gonna struggle. But in the last 12 games his OPS is over .900. He's back to where he was at the end of last year. And that was a damn good player.

    This is mostly what I've been getting at - Canario still has a ton of development left in the minors, but he's hitting right now. The Cubs chose to buy at the deadline and need to reinforce this team however they can, even if their chances of winning the world series remain marginally slim. If Canario is the hottest hitter in the system in two weeks time, and the lineup is continuing to be desperate for power, there's a case to be made for someone with his skillset as a bench/platoon option. 

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    9 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

    My issue remains that the swing and the miss is just massive.  The ISO is fun, the power is fun, the OPS/wRC+ is good, but none of these correlate to MLB success like contact ability (which remains the best indicator of next level success).  There was a really cool study done recently (tweet embedded below) that that talks about bat speed, bat to ball, and swing decisions and how they relate to dealing with better and better stuff.  

    As you can see from the chart, bat to ball matters more and more when we get to a point of elite stuff.  Canario, even over his strong run, has a whopping 33.8% K%.  His bat to ball skills right now, aren't there.  Is it rust from the injury?  Is it a step backwards in development?  I don't have an answer to either question, but I do know that he's probably going to struggle until that goes back to what we saw in 2022 (if it ever does).  

    Any idea what kind of contact rate PCA has been running? I'm thinking he's probably low-mid 70s?

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    8 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

    My issue remains that the swing and the miss is just massive.  The ISO is fun, the power is fun, the OPS/wRC+ is good, but none of these correlate to MLB success like contact ability (which remains the best indicator of next level success).  There was a really cool study done recently (tweet embedded below) that that talks about bat speed, bat to ball, and swing decisions and how they relate to dealing with better and better stuff.  

    As you can see from the chart, bat to ball matters more and more when we get to a point of elite stuff.  Canario, even over his strong run, has a whopping 33.8% K%.  His bat to ball skills right now, aren't there.  Is it rust from the injury?  Is it a step backwards in development?  I don't have an answer to either question, but I do know that he's probably going to struggle until that goes back to what we saw in 2022 (if it ever does).  

    This is an awesome analysis and a great point about Canario's skillset. 

    What I want to be sure is clear is that IF Canario were to come up, he would be HEAVILY match-up protected, much in the same way Wisdom has been the last 2+ months. He'd almost never be in the lineup against righties, and lefties with good changeups (a pitch Canario has struggled with for some time) would probably keep him on the bench too. 

    Calling up the 28th man in September during a playoff race isn't about finding the next every day starter - it's about finding someone who fills a very specific need on a roster already built to compete. There are plenty of options at Iowa, PCA among them. But if the issue with PCA (in general) is that he's redundant on a team with great outfield defense and good speed, Canario fits the mold being a slugger with a great eye. 

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    2 hours ago, Brandon Glick said:

    This is an awesome analysis and a great point about Canario's skillset. 

    What I want to be sure is clear is that IF Canario were to come up, he would be HEAVILY match-up protected, much in the same way Wisdom has been the last 2+ months. He'd almost never be in the lineup against righties, and lefties with good changeups (a pitch Canario has struggled with for some time) would probably keep him on the bench too. 

    Calling up the 28th man in September during a playoff race isn't about finding the next every day starter - it's about finding someone who fills a very specific need on a roster already built to compete. There are plenty of options at Iowa, PCA among them. But if the issue with PCA (in general) is that he's redundant on a team with great outfield defense and good speed, Canario fits the mold being a slugger with a great eye. 

    Yeah, like I said, I can see the argument.  I'm not sure I'm on that side of the argument (though it has merits).  Mostly showing the bat-to-ball skills here remain...questionable regardless of the good results.  I'm more of a "process" person when I scout MiLB talents (where and when possible) and less of a "result" driven person (though sometimes it's just a necessity).  The process behind Canario is going about his impressive results scare me.  Though I could see an argument as to why he might have a handful of useful PA's in him between now and the playoffs at the MLB level as well.

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