Jump to content
North Side Baseball
  • Cubs News & Analysis

    Padres-Cubs Wild Card Game One Thread, By The Numbers

    How have Padres hitters fared against Matthew Boyd, and how have the Cubs done against Nick Pivetta?
    Brandon Glick

    By Brandon Glick

    Image courtesy of © Matt Marton-Imagn Images

    Cubs Video

    The Cubs host the Padres at Wrigley Field for game one of the best-of-three National League Wild Card Series; San Diego has tabbed Nick Pivetta as their game one starter, and the series will be played entirely at Wrigley Field.  

    Cubs hitters vs Nick Pivetta
    Pivetta, a right-hander, showed reverse splits in 2025: he allowed a .239 wOBA to left-handed batters and a .272 wOBA to right-handed batters. Chicago’s September production offers a few specific matchups to watch. Michael Busch (LHB) posted a .244/.337/.634 (.971 OPS) in September (95 PA). Ian Happ (switch-hitter) produced a .287/.382/.511 (.893 OPS) in September (110 PA). Seiya Suzuki (RHB) logged a .232/.333/.478 (.811 OPS) in September (81 PA).  

    Nick Pivetta vs. Chicago Cubs: Current Batters Table
    Rk Player B PA AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS SH SF IBB HBP GIDP
    1 Dansby Swanson R 35 34 10 1 0 2 5 1 11 .294 .314 .500 .814 0 0 0 0 0
    2 Kyle Tucker L 12 10 2 1 0 0 2 1 2 .200 .250 .300 .550 0 1 0 0 0
    3 Ian Happ B 11 10 3 1 0 0 0 1 6 .300 .364 .400 .764 0 0 0 0 0
    4 Justin Turner R 9 8 5 2 0 2 3 1 0 .625 .667 1.625 2.292 0 0 0 0 0
    5 Reese McGuire L 7 6 2 0 0 0 0 1 2 .333 .429 .333 .762 0 0 0 0 0
    6 Carson Kelly R 6 6 3 0 1 0 1 0 3 .500 .500 .833 1.333 0 0 0 0 0
    7 Michael Busch L 5 4 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 .000 .200 .000 .200 0 0 0 0 0
    8 Seiya Suzuki R 5 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 2 .200 .200 .200 .400 0 0 0 0 1
    9 Willi Castro B 4 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 .500 .500 .500 1.000 0 0 0 0 0
    10 Nico Hoerner R 4 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0 0 0
    11 Pete Crow-Armstrong L 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 .333 .500 .333 .833 0 0 0 0 0
    12 Matt Shaw R 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 .500 .500 .500 1.000 0 0 0 0 0
    Provided by Stathead.com: Found with Stathead. See Full Results.
    Generated 9/29/2025.

    Padres hitters vs Matthew Boyd
    Left-hander Matthew Boyd draws the Game 1 start for Chicago, nudging past Shota Imanaga to open the Cubs’ postseason. In 2025, Boyd held left-handed batters to a .258 wOBA and right-handed batters to a .297 wOBA. Manny Machado finished September with a .207/.250/.425 (.675 OPS), while Fernando Tatis Jr. finished the regular season with a .293/.352/.549 (.900 OPS) slash in September.  

    Matthew Boyd vs. San Diego Padres: Current Batters Table
    Rk Player B PA AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS SH SF IBB HBP GIDP
    1 Xander Bogaerts R 18 16 3 0 0 1 3 2 3 .188 .278 .375 .653 0 0 0 0 1
    2 Manny Machado R 14 13 5 2 0 0 3 0 3 .385 .357 .538 .896 0 1 0 0 0
    3 Luis Arráez L 9 7 3 1 0 0 0 1 1 .429 .556 .571 1.127 0 0 0 1 0
    4 Freddy Fermin R 7 7 2 1 0 0 2 0 3 .286 .286 .429 .714 0 0 0 0 0
    5 Elias Díaz R 6 5 2 0 0 0 0 1 0 .400 .500 .400 .900 0 0 0 0 0
    6 Fernando Tatis Jr. R 6 6 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 .167 .167 .167 .333 0 0 0 0 0
    7 Jackson Merrill L 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0 0 0
    8 Jose Iglesias R 3 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 .333 .333 .333 .667 0 0 0 0 0
    9 Jake Cronenworth L 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0 0 0
    Provided by Stathead.com: Found with Stathead. See Full Results.
    Generated 9/29/2025.

    Defensive context
    Outs on contact could swing this game. Chicago’s center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong ranks among MLB’s 2025 leaders with +21 Outs Above Average, providing elite gap coverage behind any starter the Cubs deploy. At shortstop, Dansby Swanson is again a positive in Statcast’s range metrics (+1 OAA at SS in 2025), a drop from previous seasons but still capable. For San Diego, Fernando Tatis Jr. brings plus defense in right field (+7 OAA), a notable factor against Wrigley’s alley-driven extra-base profile.  

    Notes On Key Matchups

    • Cubs LHB (Busch, etc.) vs Pivetta (R): Pivetta’s 2025 wOBA allowed to LHB was .239; Busch carried a .971 OPS in September.
    • Cubs RHB (Suzuki, etc.) vs Pivetta: Pivetta allowed a .272 wOBA to RHB; Suzuki posted an .811 OPS in September.  
    • Padres RHB (Tatis, Machado) vs Boyd (L): Boyd allowed a .297 wOBA to RHB; Machado logged a .675 OPS in September; Tatis finished with a .353 season wOBA

    Writer | Director | Author

    Short Film: Path of Two Minds
    Novel: The Great, Horrible Tragedy

    Follow Brandon Glick on Twitter: brandonglick (on BlueSky)

    Follow North Side Baseball For Chicago Cubs News & Analysis

     Share
     Share
    Go to articles

    Recent Cubs Articles

    Recent Cubs Videos


    User Feedback

    Recommended Comments



    Featured Comments

    gflore34

    gflore34 966

    Posted

    1 minute ago, mul21 said:

    Man, Boyd wiggling out of that jam early was just absolutely huge.

    Dansby was a huge reason why Boyd wiggled out of those jams.

    • Like 2
    Bertz

    Bertz 2,652

    Posted

    Really fun game

    - I didn't love Craig going with Palencia when he did, very happy to be wrong.  Similarly I was a bit surprised at Pomeranz over Thielbar

    - Mike Shildt didn't do anything wrong per se, but using your top 3 relievers in a loss in a series this short *hurts*

    - I hope Dansby being the player of the game gets him a little bit of grace from the fans going forward.  I don't suspect it will, but I'm hoping

    - Speaking of, did Tucker get booed after his K in the first inning or did I hear things?

    WhyCantWeWin

    WhyCantWeWin 333

    Posted

    Pathetic it took them this long to win a playoff game again, but hopefully they can make a deep run

    UMFan83

    UMFan83 3,016

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, Post Count Padder said:

    4.2 perfect innings from the bullpen. Incredible work.

    Padres need to fear our superpen

    • Love 1
    mul21

    mul21 1,135

    Posted

    Just now, UMFan83 said:

    7 combined runs scored in the first 2 games lol

    That doesn't feel that unusual when teams have their aces lined up.

    • Like 1
    UMFan83

    UMFan83 3,016

    Posted

    Very interested to see who is starting tomorrow now that we won.  Do we give Shota the bulk of the innings knowing that he has the highest ceiling and we have at least a little buffer if he gets blown up (but should still treat it like our backs are to the wall).  Or do we patch together a bullpen game and risk being down a couple arms in Game 3 if we don't win?

    I think opener + Shota is the best option.  

    The other thing is, if it goes 3 games and we start Taillon on Thursday, you are looking at Rea likely starting Game 1 of the NLDS against his former team.

    Outshined_One

    Outshined_One 847

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, Bertz said:

    - Speaking of, did Tucker get booed after his K in the first inning or did I hear things?

    Boo Urns GIFs | Tenor

    • Like 2
    • Haha 1
    Rex Buckingham

    Rex Buckingham 702

    Posted

    Counsell pushed all the right buttons today

    • Like 1
    BKHoo

    BKHoo 197

    Posted (edited)

    Did Shota pitch versus the Padres this year? 

    Edited by BKHoo
    Tangled Up in Plaid

    Tangled Up in Plaid 409

    Posted

    1 minute ago, UMFan83 said:

    Very interested to see who is starting tomorrow now that we won.  Do we give Shota the bulk of the innings knowing that he has the highest ceiling and we have at least a little buffer if he gets blown up (but should still treat it like our backs are to the wall).  Or do we patch together a bullpen game and risk being down a couple arms in Game 3 if we don't win?

    I think opener + Shota is the best option.  

    The other thing is, if it goes 3 games and we start Taillon on Thursday, you are looking at Rea likely starting Game 1 of the NLDS against his former team.

    Soroka/Rea for two, Shota, then the other of Soroka/Rea if Shota starts giving up home runs.

    cubfansince77

    cubfansince77 79

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, mul21 said:

    That doesn't feel that unusual when teams have their aces lined up.

    Correct 21...some damn nice arms on display today. Man, what an effort by Boyd. To think he's our #3/4 next year but got thrust into starting today is wild. Helluva effort and helluva year from him. 

    Tangled Up in Plaid

    Tangled Up in Plaid 409

    Posted

    1 minute ago, BKHoo said:

    Did Shota Mitch versus the Padres this year? 

    Yes, 5 innings, 1 solo homer, 7 K.

    mul21

    mul21 1,135

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

    Very interested to see who is starting tomorrow now that we won.  Do we give Shota the bulk of the innings knowing that he has the highest ceiling and we have at least a little buffer if he gets blown up (but should still treat it like our backs are to the wall).  Or do we patch together a bullpen game and risk being down a couple arms in Game 3 if we don't win?

    I think opener + Shota is the best option.  

    The other thing is, if it goes 3 games and we start Taillon on Thursday, you are looking at Rea likely starting Game 1 of the NLDS against his former team.

    I think you have to start Shota given the ceiling and how much worse the Padres are against LHP. 

    • Like 4
    Rcal10

    Rcal10 1,541

    Posted

    54 minutes ago, PeanutPunch33 said:

    It was still the right thing to do though even if it didn't work out.  Jackson Merrill is 3x the player Happ is and he laid down a bunt just a few innings before, it's time to play winning baseball 

    Merrill bunting was god awful baseball. 

    Rex Buckingham

    Rex Buckingham 702

    Posted

    Yeah, let Shota start. Stick with the routine, but be ready to make a move just like you were today. Thankfully, they've got a win banked, so there is far less pressure on them. 

    UMFan83

    UMFan83 3,016

    Posted

    It had been 1,259 days since the last "Big 5" Chicago playoff victory

    Connor McConnor

    Connor McConnor 58

    Posted

    Site Mods online right now.   

     

     

    • Like 2
    • Love 1
    Rcal10

    Rcal10 1,541

    Posted

    53 minutes ago, PeanutPunch33 said:

    Yes, he's been hurt a lot this year.  His stats as a 21 year old rookie last year are better than Happ's best season.  He's a way, way better player.  That isn't even an insult to Happ.  Merrill is an up and coming star 

    And in any event, if you think they are the "same" player, then one of them shouldn't be so selfish as to not play winning baseball and do the little things needed to win 

    Since Merrill bunting is showing how to play winning baseball, can you tell me if they scored that inning with that successful bunt? 

    BigSlick

    BigSlick 700

    Posted

    cubbies!!! yes!!! 

    gflore34

    gflore34 966

    Posted

    Early game today, terrible base running by a really good base runner.  With Vest on the mound, infield in, Guardians would managed to at least tie the game.

    Rcal10

    Rcal10 1,541

    Posted (edited)

    20 minutes ago, Bertz said:

    Really fun game

    - I didn't love Craig going with Palencia when he did, very happy to be wrong.  Similarly I was a bit surprised at Pomeranz over Thielbar

    - Mike Shildt didn't do anything wrong per se, but using your top 3 relievers in a loss in a series this short *hurts*

    - I hope Dansby being the player of the game gets him a little bit of grace from the fans going forward.  I don't suspect it will, but I'm hoping

    - Speaking of, did Tucker get booed after his K in the first inning or did I hear things?

    I think bunting with Merrill was a dumb move by Shildt. That is so 70’s baseball and proven not to be the right move. 
     

    Edited by Rcal10
    • Like 2
    imb

    imb 3,544

    Posted

    19 minutes ago, mul21 said:

    That doesn't feel that unusual when teams have their aces lined up.

    And don’t forget about Matthew Boyd

    • Haha 3
    Rcal10

    Rcal10 1,541

    Posted

    1 minute ago, gflore34 said:

    Early game today, terrible base running by a really good base runner.  With Vest on the mound, infield in, Guardians would managed to at least tie the game.

    It was the contact play. Ramirez is running as soon as the ball is hit, period. It isn’t bad baserunning. Besides that, playing out. If he doesn’t run they get the guy at 1st. Then the next batter grounds out and they don’t score. 
     

    Tangled Up in Plaid

    Tangled Up in Plaid 409

    Posted

    1 minute ago, Rcal10 said:

    It was the contact play. Ramirez is running as soon as the ball is hit, period. It isn’t bad baserunning. Besides that, playing out. If he doesn’t run they get the guy at 1st. Then the next batter grounds out and they don’t score. 
     

    So the contact play with a guy on third doesn't work for other teams either apparently.



    Create an account or sign in to comment

    You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

    Create an account

    Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

    Register a new account

    Sign in

    Already have an account? Sign in here.

    Sign In Now

×
×
  • Create New...