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  • Do The Cubs Have a Rookie of the Year Curse?


    Jeff Ward

    But many who are first will be last, and many who are last will be first. – Matthew 19:30

    Image courtesy of © Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

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    Had social media been around in 1961 when former FCC chairman Newton Minow infamously described television as a “vast wasteland,” I can only imagine the adjectives he would’ve applied to Facebook. As a fascinating aside, Sherwood Schwartz and his production team had a little fun with Newton by naming Gilligan’s Island’s S.S. Minnow tour boat after him.

    But since social media is a must for independent journalists, I’ve learned to endure it and finally figured out that joining some fun Facebook groups tends to drown out the unbridled stupidity. “No, my friend. The world is not flat! Haven’t you ever flown anywhere?”

    And my favorite group is called “Vintage Baseball,” where you can almost always find some fascinating but generally civil conversation. The most recent topic was eventual Rookie of the Year busts, to which I responded “Jerome Walton,” a critical element in the North Sider’s 1989 playoff drive, but his numbers fell off sharply after that season.

    That’s when another member mentioned that Walton’s teammate, Dwight Smith, the 1989 RoY runner-up, had better numbers than Walton, inciting a third commenter to note that Mr. Smith died of congestive heart and lung failure last year at the too-young age of 58. He also enjoyed a stellar 1989 season, only to watch his production fade over his eight-year career.

    For reference purposes, the ’89 Cubs were one of just eight teams that could lay claim to the first and second-place Rookie of the Year candidates.

    Of course, the Dwight Smith revelation incited me into reviewing all of the Wrigley Field Rookie of the Years, and aside from Hall of Famer Billy Williams, who ran away with the award in 1961, that halcyon list quickly turned into a rather sad tale. I’m not nearly superstitious, but it does seem like there is some sort of curse – as if the Cubs haven’t been subjected to enough already.

    Whatever became of Ron Santo’s black cat?

    Moving in descending order, we’ll start with the ultimate bust, Kris Bryant, who was the NL Rookie of the Year in 2015, and then he managed to win MVP honors the next year. But despite a more than reasonable 2017, 2019, and 2021 season, persistent injuries have relegated Kris to “what might’ve been” status. He played in just 42 games for the Rockies last season, and as a result of another HBP, it looks like he’ll top out at 66 games this year.

    The Cubs clearly dodged a bullet when they decided not to sign him to a pricey long-term free-agent contract.

    That brings us to 2008’s catcher supreme, Geovany Soto, a man whom I firmly believed would be a battery mainstay for years to come. But after his glorious 23 home run, .285 batting average, .364 OBP rookie season, he never came close to those numbers again. By 2012 he was shipped off to the Texas Rangers for a no-name “prospect,” he played for three more teams before he retired after appearing in just 13 games for the South Siders in 2017.

    But the most difficult Cub Rookie of the Year candidate to consider has to be Kerry Wood, who squeaked by Todd Helton for the 1998 National League title. That magical May 6th twenty-strikeout game against the Astros had me salivating about future possibilities in a way that Pavlov’s dogs could never have imagined. But alas, Wood only surpassed his inaugural 13 victories in 2003 (by just one), and then it was an injury-instigated downhill slide from there.

    I can’t help but think that had he listened to then-Cub’s color man Steve Stone regarding his terrible mechanics; Wood would’ve joined the ranks of the Ryans, Seavers, and Clemens. And Stone, who admitted that he blew out his arm in 1980 to win the Cy Young Award, knew exactly what he was talking about, but Wood essentially told him to mind his own business. Ah well!

    We’ve already discussed Mr. Walton, which takes us to our last tragic Cubs Rookie of the Year winner, 1962’s Ken Hubbs, who died when the private plane he was piloting crashed near Provo, Utah, in 1964.

    Considering the mountain of curse evidence presented here, I’m thrilled that, according to the sports books, no North Sider has a shot at the 2023 award. The massive odds-on favorite is Arizona outfielder Corbin Carroll, which would make him the first D’back to win that title.

    All curse kidding aside, I can’t help but wonder if winning Rookie of the Year ratchets up the internal expectations just enough for the winner to become his own worst enemy.

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    Can't believe my dad never told me about Ken Hubbs. What a tragedy. ROY at 20 and dead at 22. Dang. Like that would crush a young fan. 

     

    I don't think I have ever heard anybody describe Kris Bryant as a bust. This is so far from the truth. This dude blazed through the minors, won ROY and put up an MVP worthy season in his first 3 seasons, one of which was culled by an organizational philosophy and may have cost them a 100 win season and division title. He won the MVP in his 2nd season, made the final assist to break the most daunting curse in sports history, and went on to make 4 All-Star games. I don't think he is a bust despite the fact that his prime was shorter than expected. Bust in that you expected a Hall of Famer? Or was that all tongue-in-cheek?

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    While looking up ROY winners, I had no idea that the Dodgers had 5 ROY winners in a row. That is absolutely incredible. 

     

    1992: Eric Karros

    1993: Mike Piazza

    1994: Raul Mondesi

    1995: Hideo Nomo

    1996: Todd Hollandsworth

     

    The Dodgers also had a stretch of 4 in a row

     

    1979: Rick Sutcliffe

    1980: Steve Howe

    1981: Fernando Valenzuela

    1982: Steve Sax

     

    No other NL team has more than 2 in a row.

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    always found the dodgers ROTY stuff to be fascinating:

    *even with those 5 players from 92-96, they won a total of ZERO playoff games (swept in the division series in 95 vs the reds and 96 vs the braves). 

    * late 70s/early 80s dodgers: sutcliffe wasn't on the 81 playoff roster (they beat the yankees in the world series), sax was a call-up in 81 (included on the playoff roster) and signed with the yankees after the 88 championship season, howe was dealing with drug problems in 88 and fernando wasn't on the 88 playoff roster. 

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    I have a sincerely hard time seeing Kris Bryant as a bust.  Yes, he's been abjectly bad with the Rockies since signing with them, but the guy put up 30+ WAR over 5 and a half years with the Cubs.

    By way of comparison, Ian Happ's nearly completed six full seasons with the team and has *only* managed to post a career WAR of 13.2.

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    28 minutes ago, Outshined_One said:

    I have a sincerely hard time seeing Kris Bryant as a bust.  Yes, he's been abjectly bad with the Rockies since signing with them, but the guy put up 30+ WAR over 5 and a half years with the Cubs.

    By way of comparison, Ian Happ's nearly completed six full seasons with the team and has *only* managed to post a career WAR of 13.2.

    This got me thinking, it's really weird that the Cubs have basically had no hall of famers, who will enter the hall of fame as a Cub and also played for the Cubs in the last nearly 30 years. Sammy Should but he wont, Maddux didn't wear the Cub hat and none of the 2016 squad is going to the hof. Lester is probably the closest and he'd definitely be wearing a Red Sox cap. Is Ryne Sandberg seriously the one who played most recently ending in career in 1997. This seems like a crazy long time.

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    Please note that I called Kris Bryant a "bust" because he never plays! This is a man who got plantar fasciitis from standing around in the outfield. I run 5ks and I've never gotten plantar fasciitis. 

    In the 2018 season he played 102 games. Then it was 34 in 2020,  42 in 2022, and 65 this year. And he's getting paid $26 million NOT to play, which in my mind, makes him a bust!

    Jeff 

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    30 minutes ago, Jeff Ward said:

    Please note that I called Kris Bryant a "bust" because he never plays! This is a man who got plantar fasciitis from standing around in the outfield. I run 5ks and I've never gotten plantar fasciitis. 

    In the 2018 season he played 102 games. Then it was 34 in 2020,  42 in 2022, and 65 this year. And he's getting paid $26 million NOT to play, which in my mind, makes him a bust!

    Jeff 

    still not a bust

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    In hindsight, being told to shut up there was nothing wrong with Wood and Prior's workload in 2003 is the exact moment I realized I hate other sports fans and want them to suffer, even if we root for the same team.

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    4 hours ago, Tryptamine said:

    This got me thinking, it's really weird that the Cubs have basically had no hall of famers, who will enter the hall of fame as a Cub and also played for the Cubs in the last nearly 30 years. Sammy Should but he wont, Maddux didn't wear the Cub hat and none of the 2016 squad is going to the hof. Lester is probably the closest and he'd definitely be wearing a Red Sox cap. Is Ryne Sandberg seriously the one who played most recently ending in career in 1997. This seems like a crazy long time.

    I was writing this post in a defense that it's not that weird to wait that long and wrote that the Twins and Brewers haven't had that many elections during that time.

    Except the Twins had Puckett and Blyleven while the Brewers had Yount and Molitor.

    But I mean if you add Sosa - which should have happened years ago - that seems far less weird.

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    50 minutes ago, Jeff Ward said:

    Dear Jersey,

    I love the word "umbrage." But did you get your plantar fasciitis from standing around in the outfield?

    Pretty sure you are educated enough not to reduce playing Major League Baseball to this. 

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    I can't find the original article on the issue, but at the time Mr. Bryant did, indeed, say he got plantar fasciitis from standing around too much. Meanwhile, runners get plantar fasciitis from running multiple marathons. 

    Put more simply, anyone who can't play more than 70 games a season when they're getting paid 26 million a year for the privilege to do so, IS A BUST!

    Jeff

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    It’s too bad KB has been sidelined by injuries the last few years, but he was the best player on the most successful stretch of Cubs baseball of any of our lifetimes. He has the stats and the hardware to back it up. Not a bust. Terrible take.

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    37 minutes ago, Jeff Ward said:

    I can't find the original article on the issue, but at the time Mr. Bryant did, indeed, say he got plantar fasciitis from standing around too much. Meanwhile, runners get plantar fasciitis from running multiple marathons. 

    Put more simply, anyone who can't play more than 70 games a season when they're getting paid 26 million a year for the privilege to do so, IS A BUST!

    Jeff

    Bait GIFs - Get the best GIF on GIPHY

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    44 minutes ago, Jeff Ward said:

    I can't find the original article on the issue, but at the time Mr. Bryant did, indeed, say he got plantar fasciitis from standing around too much. Meanwhile, runners get plantar fasciitis from running multiple marathons. 

    Put more simply, anyone who can't play more than 70 games a season when they're getting paid 26 million a year for the privilege to do so, IS A BUST!

    Jeff

    In the context of 'do the Cubs have a curse with their ROY winners', it doesn't seem to make much difference if Bryant has injury issues 6 years later playing for another team.  He was enormously successful as a Cub even after his ROY year, and won an MVP when they won the world series.  Sure he's been a bust as a Rockie due to injuries, but calling that another instance of the 'Cubs ROY curse' that laid dormant for a half decade and manifested after he left the Cubs makes the whole idea silly.

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    Dear Outshined,

    I am INSULTED that you could possibly think a 17.5-year opinion columnist would EVER bait Anyone. My word!

    That said, Kris Bryant is still a bust!

    Jeff 

    Edited by Jeff Ward
    adding a sentence
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    Bryant’s just taking a couple years to recover from dragging this franchise, which ballooned from $800 million to say $5 billion in Value while he was busting here, out of over a century of mud. Puts a strain on body, mind, and sole to be around something so depressed, depressing, and dedicated to Losing is Winning as strategy

    Edited by TomtheBombadil
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