My Breakout Pick for the 2025 Chicago Cubs Might Be Their Least-Discussed Starting Pitching Option

I was surprised at how much I liked Birdsell when I deep dove into him for the prospect rankings. I always kind of thought of him as a #5 guy who could stick, but I just couldn't find many flags in his game and came away with the idea that there's some juice to squeeze there. Glad I'm not alone!

Probably a good place to post this

I think there's a decent chance he gets smacked around by big league lefties (I know he hasn't had issues to this point), but essentially everything else is there already.

One kind of weird thing is that ZiPS hates him.  For a guy who is a data darling I expected the opposite and to need to go "woah woah woah pump the brakes buddy" to the projections.  I am curious what the hell it sees that has it throwing up the red flag.

26 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Probably a good place to post this

I think there's a decent chance he gets smacked around by big league lefties (I know he hasn't had issues to this point), but essentially everything else is there already.

One kind of weird thing is that ZiPS hates him.  For a guy who is a data darling I expected the opposite and to need to go "woah woah woah pump the brakes buddy" to the projections.  I am curious what the hell it sees that has it throwing up the red flag.

PECOTA (111 DRA-, -0.1 WARP, 18.6% K, 34% GB) hates him, too, doesn't think he'll miss enough bats and that he'll give up too many fly balls. I think there's a case to be made that his pitch mix changes altered that even within this season, in a way the projections won't catch because of the noise created by older results info? But yeah. There's a chance I'm on an island here, or that me and Jason are, at least. Haha.

6 minutes ago, Matthew Trueblood said:

PECOTA (111 DRA-, -0.1 WARP, 18.6% K, 34% GB) hates him, too, doesn't think he'll miss enough bats and that he'll give up too many fly balls. I think there's a case to be made that his pitch mix changes altered that even within this season, in a way the projections won't catch because of the noise created by older results info? But yeah. There's a chance I'm on an island here, or that me and Jason are, at least. Haha.

I do think the flyball thing is a bit of a concern. What I really liked was the chase% he had on the slider and that the fastball generated higher than league average in-zone whiff. It gives him a few different ways of missing bats - fastball in the zone, and the slider as a chase pitch. And as you pointed out - with the arm angle, allows him to hide the two a bit better (maybe why we see that data to begin with?). 

Great supplemental data and insights . 

2 hours ago, 1908_Cubs said:

I do think the flyball thing is a bit of a concern. What I really liked was the chase% he had on the slider and that the fastball generated higher than league average in-zone whiff. It gives him a few different ways of missing bats - fastball in the zone, and the slider as a chase pitch. And as you pointed out - with the arm angle, allows him to hide the two a bit better (maybe why we see that data to begin with?). 

Do you have a strong opinion on how his pitches should be classified? I keep circling back to that, and I suspect not even he is sure right now, because the shapes and speeds have changed so much since he entered the org. There's even a fairly legit case for classifying his fastball as a cutter, which I guess would push the harder breaker to slider and the other to curve..? It's weird.

59 minutes ago, Matthew Trueblood said:

Do you have a strong opinion on how his pitches should be classified? I keep circling back to that, and I suspect not even he is sure right now, because the shapes and speeds have changed so much since he entered the org. There's even a fairly legit case for classifying his fastball as a cutter, which I guess would push the harder breaker to slider and the other to curve..? It's weird.

I've really waffled. I think I sit in calling it both? I think he's got a fastball and a cutter he's been playing with. I'm just playing the eye test here, but here's a start from September 22nd - 

https://www.mlb.com/video/brandon-birdsell-s-stellar-seven-inning-start

The first strikeout? That's a fastball to me. That second strikeout? That looks like a cutter with how it look a bit like it dances down and out. Then he gets two K's on what looks like a fastball again...and then...hard sliders? Cutters? IDK, what those next two are. Then what is clearly a backdoor slider and seems much softer then those things I'm thinking is a cutter. 

There feels like a lot of iteration and shape play. Or maybe I'm just a terrible visual scout - there's always that!

I snagged him in a couple dynasty leagues with deep minor league rosters. Cub fans know who he is, but many don't. 

This is a very interesting point and interesting topic. 
Birdsell has a #2 slot potential by 2027, but as long as he's a 3- pitch guy, I see him as a #4 slot guy. His rapid development surprised many people, me included.

I have him slated as a competitor for the crowded 2026 rotation, and an injury sub for 2025. I'm guessing he gets 2-4 starts in 2025. Maybe he makes a post-season roster as a long reliever, if he is fantastic right away. 

We have so much pitching depth right now, its wild to see fans or press be so negative about our pitching trajectory.

Also: why has everyone forgotten about Keegan Thompson? Now that the injuries are behind him, he could easily throw a sub 4 ERA season as a starter. I expected some team to trade form him as a starter by now - he'd immediately improve the White Sox rotation!