The Cubs Need to Find the Next Carson Kelly, But This Winter, That Player Doesn't Exist

[Matthew Trueblood]

Image courtesy of Patrick Gorski-Imagn Images

 

Catcher is a position fraught with uncertainty for the Cubs this offseason. Carson Kelly's contract contains a mutual option for 2027, but Kelly is in position to earn more than the $6 million in new money that triggering that option would give him, so he'll turn down his side thereof and become a free agent. The Cubs would be interested in having Kelly back at that price, but once they face the specter of paying market value for him (in all likelihood, a two-year deal worth at least $15 million), they're likely to quail a bit.

However, they can't plunge forward without replacing Kelly, who's been a stalwart backstop for them over the last two seasons. Miguel Amaya's 2026 season was fine, but no more than that, and it's fairly clear that his body will never allow him to be a first-division regular at the most demanding position on the diamond. He played only about 40% of the time in 2026, and even then, he struggled to produce any meaningful pop. He's a solid defender, but he needs to be kept in the role he had this season; making him the true starter would mean accepting a downgrade at the spot.

The natural alternative is close at hand, though. Top prospect Owen Ayers, who caught huge helium as he climbed from the bottom of the minor-league ladder to the top this year. After spending all of 2025 with Low-A Myrtle Beach, Ayers took just a fortnight to solve the Midwest League this spring, and was promoted that quickly to Double-A Knoxville. By late July, he'd forced the team's hand, and he got another bump, to Triple-A Iowa. For the year, he batted .289/.403/.526, with 25 home runs in 538 plate appearances. That produced lots of excitement among those who follow Cubs prospects closely. Ayers even broke into some national top-100 prospect lists.

Count me as a skeptic. It was a distortionary season for hitter evaluation throughout the minors. Batters put up huge numbers at all levels below the majors. Ayers rode that wave, but that means that his numbers need some air taken out of them. He also saw a major degradation in his performance when he went from Knoxville to Des Moines, which doesn't feel like a coincidence: they use the big-league ball at Triple-A.

• High-A South Bend: 151 DRC+, 224 wRC+, 1.156 SLGCON
• Double-A Knoxville: 145 DRC+, 165 wRC+, .845 SLGCON
• Triple-A Iowa: 99 DRC+, 92 wRC+, .481 SLGCON

If Ayers were a 22-year-old making a rapid but on-time ascent through the minors, those splits would be no great cause for concern. He wasn't. The 2024 19th-round pick turned 25 in June. He only became age-appropriate for a prospect when he reached Iowa, where he looked lost at the plate.

Reports on Ayers's defense behind the plate are mixed. He draws good reviews for athleticism and for his throwing arm, but he's not a finished product as a receiver. Again, that's no problem if a player is 22 or 23 years old, but it's much more of a concern if they're still unrefined as a defender at the most important defensive position as they pass the halfway point of their 20s.

The Cubs shouldn't plan on having Ayers play a major role early in 2027. My own opinion is that they should have traded him at the deadline, when his value was higher than it is now—and perhaps higher than it will ever be again. It's fine to keep him around, and even hold out considerable hope for him as (if nothing else) a replacement for Amaya in 2028, but to be as good at the catcher spot as they were in 2026, they need to find this year's version of the player they signed ahead of the 2025 season, on an affordable two-year deal.

Bad news: no such catcher is available this winter. Kelly was a unique opportunity, in that he became a free agent younger than most catchers do; he had just turned 30 in July 2024. He had also just completed a season in which he significantly reduced his strikeout rate, not by trading power for contact, but by getting more aggressive within the strike zone and avoiding two-strike counts better. He was, at that moment, a clear plus on defense, although he was a bit worse late in his Cubs tenure. The Cubs would, ideally, replace him with a player who'll be 30 or younger for at least half of 2027; saw their key performance indicators move in the right direction in 2026; and is clearly big league-caliber defensively, if not actively helpful on the run prevention side. That guy's just not out there this winter.

Projects aplenty are available. Ryan Jeffers is young enough to fit the mold, and he's an even better hitter than Kelly. There are two problems with him: 

1. He's a subpar defensive catcher; and
2. Unlike Kelly, he's highly valued by the market and clearly the best catcher available in free agency. He'll make something like five times what Kelly got two years ago, over a longer term. He might even get a qualifying offer from the Minnesota Twins.

Tyler Stephenson is closer to being the same situation. He had a rough enough 2026 to keep his asking price from ballooning alongside that of Jeffers. He did trim his strikeout rate this season, and though he's extremely messy as a defender, the pieces of a good catcher are there. He's a more reasonable target, with real upside if he can get to just a bit more of his power. The team would have to place major trust in its catching department to help him along defensively, though.

Every other free-agent catcher with any meaningful track record is at least Kelly's age. Buying into a catcher at that age—including Kelly itself—is never a good idea; those players decline too rapidly. Two or three more interesting players might hit free agency after being non-tendered next month, and trades are always an option, but the reality is that the Cubs will have a hard time maintaining what they got from their catchers in 2026.

In an array of imperfect options, signing Stephenson might be the most appealing, if his price tag doesn't get unexpectedly unmanageable. Retaining Kelly or promoting Ayers might turn out to be solid alternatives, not because they actually figure to be good next year, but because they might be the smartest and/or easiest ways to make the best of a bad situation. Ideally, the Cubs would find the surprising but legitimate good solution in the midst of the dreck. They got very lucky that Kelly was available when he was, though, and they're not getting that lucky again this time.

 

View full article