Did Miguel Amaya Do Enough in 2026 to Be Cubs' Main Catcher in 2027?

[Randy Holt]

Image courtesy of Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

At any given time, only a handful of big-league catchers are on solid ground as unquestioned starters. The rest exist in a peculiar purgatory, wherein they're either a quasi-backup (whom a team might trust to play two of every three games for a few weeks, but only if forced to) or a true one who only grabs 15 percent of the starts behind the plate. Even at this point in his career, it's difficult to pinpoint exactly where Chicago Cubs catcher Miguel Amaya falls on that spectrum. 

Amaya has spent the last two seasons as a complement to Carson Kelly, and sometimes as his backup. After getting his most extended run as the No. 1 in 2024, he started 2025 in an equal timeshare with Kelly, but after an oblique injury essentially ended his season in late May, he entered 2026 with a reduced role. Kelly is an impending free agent, though, and Amaya is under team control for another three years. The 2026 campaign was an opportunity for him to showcase his chops and get another shot at the top gig come 2027. Did he manage it? 

Kelly caught 105 games (94 starts) in 2026, to Amaya's 70 (63 starts). Within a much larger sample of work than we saw in 2025, Amaya finished with a .237/.340/.377 line; a bloated 26.4% strikeout rate against a 9.1% walk rate; and a 106 wRC+ that reveals the broader offensive picture. There were some things that Amaya did better than in 2025, and some things he did worse. He took more walks than we'd seen, but the strikeouts also piled up. His power, measured by ISO, fell from .219 in 2025 to only .140 in 2026. Before this year, Amaya had shown at least average feel for contact, which made him above-average for a catcher in that regard. That was much less true in 2026, and he didn't make up for it by hitting for big power.

A couple of caveats are worth keeping in mind, though. First is the fact that Amaya took more walks because he took more pitches. His 4.00 pitches per plate appearance were easily the most of his three full seasons (or facsimiles thereof). He swung far less overall, but was unable to parlay that into much more than an average walk rate. That's not surprising, because his bat speed was way down—about 2 miles per hour. That left pitchers little reason to fear him. When they fell behind, they just gave in and filled up the zone against him; he had little ability to punish them.

From a defensive standpoint, Amaya has proven to be a perfectly acceptable backstop. He's gone from below-average in 2024 in Statcast's all-encompassing Catching Runs (-2) to slightly above (1) in each of the past two seasons. In 2026, he graded out as slightly above-average in framing and ABS run value (1 each) and exactly average in throwing and blocking (0 each). Average offensive production and roughly average defense adds up to a useful player, though once you account for the limited role he played, Amaya is probably a bit below average on each side of the ledger.

As Kelly hits the market, he's positioned for a multi-year deal, and given his age, it would be unwise for the Cubs to be the ones who give it to him. Yet, they're also unlikely to feel comfortable making Amaya the full-fledged starting catcher. If the Cubs were to go into 2027 with (say) Amaya and top catching prospect Owen Ayers as their two behind the dish, Amaya may maintain the playing time edge early, but Ayers would be likely to take more of the playing time over the course of the campaign.

Amaya's 2026 didn't disqualify him from a long-term role on the team, but nor did it solidify one for him. He's probably too good to be a pure backup, but he lacks the offensive upside to be a true No. 1 behind the plate. Be it Kelly or someone else, then, the Cubs probably need to add a catcher this winter.

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