How Cubs Can Keep Their Season Alive Against Nick Pivetta and Push Padres To Game 3

[Sam Caulder]

Image courtesy of David Banks-Imagn Images

Game 1 of the Wild Card Round is in the books. Let's just say I'm thankful that Game 2 is right around the corner.

If the Chicago Cubs are going to force a Game 3 and remain alive in the Wild Card Round, they’re going to need a much more inspired performance than what we saw from them last night. Chicago was shut out, managed just six hard-hit balls, and struck out 11 times. Now, their season is officially on the line.

So, with that in mind, here are a few specific things the Cubs will have to do differently tonight if they want to remain afloat and force a rubber match.

Cubs Must Be More Aggressive Early In Game 2

For one, I think the Cubs need to be more aggressive early in counts. The Padres’ pitching staff, and Michael King specifically, was challenging hitters with a lot of fastballs during the first couple of pitches of at-bats. And Chicago didn’t offer at them.

That’s not to say I don’t understand the approach. There’s certainly value in making the opposing starter work. Running up his pitch count and forcing the Padres to get into their bullpen earlier than they’d prefer can be a good strategy, especially in a playoff game. But that concept wound up failing as King took a no-hitter into the seventh inning, and the Cubs never really made him uncomfortable. Now, with their season on the line, they have to adjust.

I’m looking for Chicago to be more aggressive early in counts tonight, especially if Padres starter Nick Pivetta gives them something to hit. And, frankly, with a fresh Padres bullpen regardless, running up Pivetta’s pitch count doesn’t matter nearly as much as it did coming into Game 1. This team needs to make something happen early in at-bats.

Kevin Gausman Needs to Give Cubs Length

Another thing that absolutely needs to happen is that the Cubs need to get a strong start out of Kevin Gausman. Matthew Boyd made it through just four innings in Game 1, forcing four different relievers to throw at least 16 pitches. Even with a deeper bullpen than they had during the regular season, Chicago can't afford to ask that group to cover another significant chunk of a game tonight.

If Gausman can’t make it more than four innings, that’s a problem. Now, his workload could be monitored regardless; the right-hander is coming off a left shoulder injury he suffered last week, so the Cubs may have a limit in mind before he even takes the mound. But even if he’s capped at five or six innings, they need to be quality frames that limit chaos on the basepaths.

There are still plenty of options available in the bullpen. Daniel Palencia and Ryan Zeferjahn are both available, and it wouldn’t shock me to see someone like Clay Holmes or Shota Imanaga work in relief in an elimination game. But those guys need a lead to work with. What Gausman gives the Cubs tonight will have a big part in determining whether they have one.

Cubs Can't Let Nick Pivetta Get Settled

And then, lastly, the Cubs need to jump on Nick Pivetta. I mean, my gosh. King was no-hitting this lineup through six innings last night, and the Padres’ pitching staff ultimately shut Chicago out. As I noted, the Cubs struck out 11 times as a team in Game 1, and just six of the 20 balls they put in play were hard-hit. That’s obviously not exactly a recipe for success, particularly against a Padres team just dying to get to the back end of their dominant bullpen.

That last part is especially important because of what awaits Chicago if the game is close. San Diego has some fresh high-leverage arms available after Mason Miller, Adrián Morejón and Bradgley Rodriguez all avoided pitching in Game 1. That means the Cubs are likely to see at least a couple of those guys tonight. And if those relievers are entering the game with a lead, that’s not exactly promising for our hopes of extending the series. The Cubs need to create some separation before San Diego can turn things over to its best relievers.

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