The Leaders of the Cubs' Pitching Staff Are All New Faces. The Problems Are Familiar.

[Randy Holt]

Image courtesy of Michael McLoone-Imagn Images

As good as the Chicago Cubs have been at the plate and in the field in 2026, their pitching staff has consistently set them back. Decimated by injury in both the rotation and the bullpen early, the team has had to navigate continued Injured List trips and questionable performance as the season progressed. Jed Hoyer addressed the team's needs much more robustly and directly than we're accustomed to seeing, within a season—not so much because he wanted to, as because the circumstances left him no choice.

Given how dire things were, particularly on the starting side, the work began early. Former New York Met David Peterson was acquired at the end of June. The team added Kevin Gausman, Clay Holmes, and Ryan Zeferjahn closer to the August 3 deadline. There was also an Aaron Civale pickup in the mix there somewhere; he arrived after the Athletics designated him for assignment in mid-July. 

That's five arms serving a significant role for the 2026 Cubs who were not in the organization when the season began, or even on Memorial Day. The most notable thing about that group, though, is how four of them specifically shape the team's fWAR leaderboard in the second half of the season. 

Among Cubs pitchers who have thrown at all in the second half (of which there are 24), this is the top four in fWAR: 

1. David Peterson (0.6)
2. Kevin Gausman (0.6)
3. Clay Holmes (0.5)
4. Aaron Civale (0.4)

It's a small sample, and it's not as if these are the only four arms on the team's staff who have provided value in the second half, but it does indicate a couple of things about the construction of the Cubs' 2026 staff. 

First, the positive: The front office targeted the right arms as the season wore on. Peterson and his 54.9% groundball rate have benefited from playing in front of a much better defense in Chicago, on his way to a 4.41 ERA. Holmes is a similar case with an even higher groundball rate (66.0%). Gausman has averaged nearly six innings per start (5.8), through some tough luck that indicates his actual production should be a touch better than we've seen (4.37 ERA vs. 3.70 xERA through six starts). Civale and his 1.27 ERA have stabilized the relief corps over a number of multi-inning outings. 

These are all, objectively, good things. But that the Cubs have had to rely almost exclusively on outside additions to derive value out of their staff at this stage of a playoff race speaks to two looming negatives.  Obviously, that includes the injuries with which the Cubs have had to contend. Shota Imanaga is the only pitcher with enough work to qualify for the league's leaderboards, as seemingly every arm (starter or reliever) has had to spend at least a bit of time on the shelf. That part, at least, makes the recovery provided by the new arms that much more essential. 

But this is also an indictment of the group the front office assembled in the first place. Even if we take away the injuries, the combination of the team's marquee additions and mainstays—the likes of Edward Cabrera, Phil Maton, Hunter Harvey, Caleb Thielbar, and Jameson Taillon (prior to his DFA)—have underperformed and underwhelmed. Even with perfect health, it's not clear that this group would be good enough. It doesn't look like this organization has caught up to the pack in terms of pitching development and evaluation. That's a major problem.

The good news is that, at least for now, they can take solace in the work being done by the reinforcements. The bad news is that this state of affairs feels likely to stop them from playing deep into October, and that they still have a lot of work to do in building a good pitching infrastructure.

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