Jaxon Wiggins Remains A Frustratingly Polarizing Prospect

[Sam Caulder]

Image courtesy of © Cody Scanlan/The Register / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Jaxon Wiggins has long been a polarizing name within the Chicago Cubs organization, and that was true even before he ever threw a professional pitch.

The Cubs selected Wiggins with the 68th overall pick in the 2023 MLB Draft, taking a chance on a pitcher who had missed the entire season at the University of Arkansas while recovering from Tommy John surgery. There was plenty to like about the selection, though. Wiggins’ raw stuff was — and still is — extremely impressive, and the Cubs were betting that his upside would ultimately outweigh the risk that came with his injury history and inconsistent command. Since making his professional debut in 2024, there have been plenty of highs and plenty of lows. Unfortunately, the lows have become increasingly difficult to ignore.

The pure stuff with Wiggins is electric. Standing at 6-foot-6, the right-hander has an upper-90s fastball with elite life, giving hitters an extremely difficult pitch to square up when he’s able to locate it. He also has a hard slider that generates plenty of swings and misses, particularly when he gets it out of the strike zone. Those two pitches are a big reason why Wiggins is currently ranked as the Cubs’ top pitching prospect, according to North Side Baseball. There’s a legitimate major-league starter hiding somewhere in that arsenal. The problem is finding him consistently.

Through 23 innings at Triple-A Iowa this season, Wiggins owns an ugly 9.39 ERA and a 2.09 WHIP. He has allowed more than a hit per inning while also averaging more than a walk per inning, which paints a pretty clear picture of the biggest issue holding him back. Wiggins simply isn't throwing enough strikes, and this isn't exactly a new problem.

Even going back to his college career at Arkansas, Wiggins struggled to consistently command the strike zone. Across 89 innings over two collegiate seasons, he walked 57 batters. That spotty control has followed him into professional baseball. His walk rate at Triple-A this season has skyrocketed to 20.4%. That’s comfortably higher than where he’s been throughout the rest of his professional career, but it’s worth noting that Wiggins has generally hovered around an 11-14% walk rate.

Young pitchers obviously can struggle with command as they work their way through the minor leagues. Learning how to consistently locate a fastball, especially while also developing secondary pitches, is one of the more difficult parts of becoming a successful major-league starter. But Wiggins isn't a 20-year-old trying to figure everything out in his first professional season. He's 24 years old and will turn 25 during the postseason. That changes the conversation quite a bit.

I think a lot of people, myself included, went into this season assuming Wiggins would make his MLB debut at some point during the summer. The stuff has always been good enough to make that possibility enticing, and his development had reached the point where the Cubs could reasonably have been expected to give him an opportunity if he showed he was ready. At this point, though, the odds of that happening are considerably slimmer.

The Cubs made that pretty clear at the trade deadline. They added added three starting pitchers in Kevin Gausman, Clay Holmes and Braxton Garrett. Injuries to the rotation obviously played a major role in those decisions, and it would be unfair to suggest that the Cubs simply went out and acquired three starters because they had no faith in Wiggins. But it’s difficult to believe they would have been quite that aggressive if they felt confident that their top prospect could step into the rotation and provide meaningful innings down the stretch. The timing is particularly notable because Wiggins was already close enough to the majors that this was supposed to be a potential opportunity for him. Instead, the Cubs looked elsewhere for reinforcements.

There’s still a possibility that Wiggins could be brought up as a bullpen option at some point. His stuff would certainly play in a relief role, and moving to shorter outings could potentially allow him to attack hitters more aggressively without worrying as much about pacing himself through five or six innings. Even that path, however, isn't particularly straightforward. The Cubs currently have six right-handed relievers on their roster, and Daniel Palencia isn't far away from returning to the bullpen. Adding another right-handed arm to that mix would make an already crowded situation even tighter.

None of these additions necessarily change Wiggins' long-term outlook. The Cubs still have plenty of reasons to believe in what he can become. A 6-foot-6 right-hander who can throw an upper-90s fastball with elite movement and pair it with a nasty slider is going to get plenty of opportunities. But the moves made at the deadline do say something about where the organization believes Wiggins is right now. Clearly they don't think he's ready yet, and frankly, it's hard to blame them.

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