Showdown: 2026 Chicago Cubs vs. 2016 World Series Champion Cubs

[matto1233]

Image courtesy of © Matt Marton-Imagn Images

Something that has struck me, as I have listened to David Ross and Anthony Rizzo’s podcast, The Lovable Reunion (where they reminisce with those that were a part of that team), is how inevitable that 2016 Cubs group felt. I feel like I live and die with every pitch of the 2026 Cubs, because I have to. If they lose three or four in a row, that could easily be devastating to their playoff chances.

The 2016 team, though, was different. With 103 wins, they finished with the best record in the National League by a full eight wins. They won the division by 17.5 games, and were never less than 6.5 games up on second place during the second half of the season. They started 25-6, for crying out loud—and they didn't follow it up with some 10-game losing skein.

All of this is to say, the 2026 Cubs are probably a good baseball team, but the 2016 Cubs were an elite baseball team. How would the 2026 Cubs fare if they faced the 2016 Cubs? With the new baseball simulation tool at FanGraphs, we can figure this out!

First, we have to decide on our lineups. I thought we’d simulate one game with lefties on the mound for both teams, and then another with righties on the mound. We’re going to use the Marcel projection system, since it is one of the only systems that will project back in time, which is necessary for the 2016 team. I’ve also disabled home-field advantage. These games are played at Wrigley Field, in theory, where fans are cheering for both teams. 

Game 1 Lineups

2026 Cubs

1. Pete Crow-Armstrong
2. Seiya Suzuki
3. Alex Bregman
4. Carson Kelly
5. Michael Busch
6. Ian Happ
7. Nico Hoerner
8. Matt Shaw
9. Dansby Swanson

Pitchers - Matthew Boyd, Ryan Rolison, Hoby Milner, Jacob Webb, Daniel Palencia

2016 Cubs

1. Dexter Fowler
2. Kris Bryant
3. Anthony Rizzo
4. Ben Zobrist
5. Addison Russell
6. Willson Contreras
7. Jorge Soler
8. Javier Báez
9. Kyle Schwarber

Pitchers - Jon Lester, Carl Edwards Jr., Héctor Rondón, Pedro Strop, Aroldis Chapman

Here's how it went down.

The 2016 Cubs, of course, win this matchup much more often than the 2026 Cubs. However, I was shocked to discover that they win the matchup 65.3% of the time. On any given day in MLB, it’s hard to find any team that has almost a two-in-three chance of winning. 

Some of this is probably accounted for by the fact that the league-average hitter in 2016 was better than the league-average hitter in 2026. That was just a better offensive environment, and that might make this slightly unfair—although the difference should be counterbalanced by the easier pitching environment, right?

Indeed, the lion's share of the difference, in my opinion—and this won’t shock you—is in the pitching. Cubs hitters this year have a 109 wRC+. The 2016 Cubs had a 106 wRC+. Cubs pitchers in 2016 had an ERA- of 76. That figure is at 104 this year. 

ERA- is basically wRC+ for pitchers. It’s adjusted for league average and park factors, and 100 is average. Unlike wRC+ (and more like ERA), you want this number to be below 100. In other terms, Cubs pitchers were 24 percent better than league average in 2016. In 2026, they are 4 percent worse than average. 

The simulation bears this out. The 2016 Cubs crush to the tune of a .274/.353/.465 slash line, while the 2026 Cubs manage a line of just .233/.300/.384. This gives the 2016 Cubs 5.35 average runs scored, and the 2026 Cubs just an average of 3.92.

Fun fact: when I first tried this simulation with Shota Imanaga pitching instead of Boyd, I noticed that Kris Bryant projects to hit a home run off of Imanaga in 7.3 percent of plate appearances. That didn’t seem very fair, but it also does bring back a smile, doesn't it? Bryant, especially against a pitcher prone to fly balls anyway, was that kind of lethal in his MVP-winning season. 

Will the 2026 squad fare any better with right-handed starters?

Game 2 Lineups

2026 Cubs

1. Crow-Armstrong
2. Bregman
3. Busch
4. Suzuki
5. Happ
6. Michael Conforto
7. Kelly
8. Hoerner
9. Swanson

Pitchers - Ben Brown, Rolison, Milner, Webb, Palencia

2016 Cubs

1. Fowler
2. Schwarber
3. Bryant
4. Rizzo
5. Zobrist
6. Russell
7. Contreras
8. Jason Heyward
9. Báez

Pitchers - Kyle Hendricks, Edwards Jr., Rondón, Strop, Chapman

It, uh, didn't get any better for the current Men in Blue.

Having Brown on the mound instead of Boyd certainly helps the present day iteration of the Cubs. (Alas: we might even be giving the 2026 squad an unfair advantage here. Brown might be out for the year.) The 2016 group hits for a slash line of .266/.346/.443 and scores 4.99 runs per game in this one, over a third of a run less. Having Hendricks on the mound instead of Lester, though, is of no help. The 2026 Cubs hit a paltry .228/.296/.375 and score only 3.77 runs per game. It turns out, the 2016 team still wins this 64.4 percent of the time. 

Crow-Armstrong does what he can for the 2026 Cubs: he pops a home run in 17 percent of the games in this simulation. That pales in comparison to the middle of the 2016 lineup, though: Schwarber homers in 20 percent of the games, Bryant 21 percent, and Rizzo 19 percent. 

This brings me all the way back to my original point: the 2016 Cubs were inevitable. The 2026 team has been fun, at times, and frustrating at others. The 2016 team was an unstoppable force. And if these projections are any indication, they would demolish the Cubs that we see playing baseball just 10 years later. If that seems to augur ill for the current club's playoff chances, well, yeah. It does. But it also highlights the historic thunder of that drought-snapping team.

View full article