Defense Wins Games: How the 2026 Cubs Are Proving An Old Sports Adage True

[RandallPnkFloyd]

Image courtesy of © Jonathan Hui-Imagn Images

Despite dropping two of three games to the Los Angeles Dodgers over the weekend, things look much better for the Chicago Cubs now than they did a couple of weeks ago. The offense has experienced positive regression, and the pitching staff has held together in the wake of an abnormal number of injuries to the bullpen. What we shouldn't do, however, is underrate the role of defense in this early season turnaround. 

Defense has been a sort of hallmark of the current front office regime. In 2023, the Cubs ranked eighth as a team in Outs Above Average (16) and ninth in Defensive Runs Saved (33). They followed that up in 2024 with the seventh-ranked OAA (21) and ninth-ranked DRS (37) before shooting up the leaderboard last season, largely courtesy of the addition of Pete Crow-Armstrong to the everyday lineup. Their OAA ranked fourth (29) and their 84 DRS trailed only the Texas Rangers for the top spot. When you consider the roster configuration this season, it's not a surprise that they're on their way to replicating last season's results in 2026. 

By Outs Above Average, no team has a higher mark than the Cubs' 14 thus far. Their Defensive Runs Saved figure, at 16, reads as the fourth-best. The best way to support a pitching staff navigating as much attrition as the Cubs' is by playing sound defense behind them. Of course, the fact that this is happening isn't something that should ring as too much of a surprise given the names on the roster.

Two of the top three spots for individual players in Outs Above Average are occupied by members of the Cubs. Pete Crow-Armstrong and Nico Hoerner each have an OAA of seven to date, a figure which trails only Bobby Witt Jr.'s eight. Crow-Armstrong has a 95 percent success rate against an 87 percent estimated success rate, with the leftover eight percent also trailing only Witt as the league's best. Hoerner isn't far behind there, with a seven percent success rate added. 

Of the two, Crow-Armstrong has made things look characteristically simple given his first-by-a-mile outfield jump (5.5 feet vs. average). Hoerner, meanwhile, has been a human highlight reel, contributing things like this: 

And this: 

And that was just in a single weekend.

Those two serving as the linchpins of the Cubs' defensive game certainly tracks. What's somewhat more remarkable about the defense the team is providing, though, is the fact that five other regulars feature, at worst, average OAA numbers. Michael Busch has an OAA of three. Only Willson Contreras has been better at a position that defensive metrics don't particularly love. Likewise, Matt Shaw is at two, with each of Ian Happ, Alex Bregman, and Seiya Suzuki coming in at average (zero OAA).

Of the team's regular starting nine, the only member of the group to check in below average defensively (by OAA) is Dansby Swanson. His -1 OAA currently sits at the bottom, which feels somewhat surprising when you consider that he was able to unlock something like this in LA this weekend: 

It's important to remember that Swanson got off to a bit of a slow start defensively last season. He ended up posting an OAA of four before year's end. Even if the defense has regressed a bit from his peak, it's not as if he's serving as some weak link here. There's been the odd misplay or difficult read pinning his production down a bit to date, but things should even out to be more in line with his defensive counterparts. That Swanson is even at the bottom of the leaderboard for the Cubs speaks to how strong this group has been.

Even if we wanted to throw catchers in the mix, the Cubs have a tandem in Miguel Amaya & Carson Kelly that rank 32nd and 34th, respectively, in Catching Runs. The ranking itself isn't favorable given that only 45 catchers qualify for that leaderboard, but the only area where the two check in even slightly below average (-1) is framing. They're otherwise exactly average in the other components of the position (throwing & blocking). 

When you're able to supplement steady offensive production and a pitching staff that is hanging in there despite a myriad of injuries with defense at this level, you get things like a 10-game winning streak in April. While those other phases of the game have the tendency to wax and wane as a season progresses, defense is one thing that has the ability to remain consistent. 

So, while we're operating within a small sample for a collection of metrics that notoriously need larger ones, it feels like the defense is as dependable a unit as exists in the league. Even as the lineup and pitching staff regress and rebound according to their nature, the collective defensive effort of the Cubs should help to stabilize things regularly as we approach the summer months.

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