Nico Hoerner Is Approaching Truly Elite Territory In Terms of Overall Value

[RandallPnkFloyd]

Image courtesy of © Patrick Gorski-Imagn Images

Anybody who's watched Chicago Cubs second baseman Nico Hoerner play baseball for even a fragment of time knows that he is as close to a complete player as one may find in the sport. "Perfectly solid" is how his blend of contact, defense, and baserunning might be described. You don't necessarily see screaming for him to be talking about in the same breath as the league's very elite, but he's spending time in their company in various parts of the leaderboard all the same. 

He did it in 2025, when he ranked 20th in the league in FanGraphs' Wins Above Replacement metric (4.8). He also had one of the eight-best batting averages (.297), a top-three strikeout rate (7.6 percent), and one of the dozen-best Outs Above Average figures (15) regardless of position. That's the kind of output that earns you a six-year contract extension, as Hoerner did just after Opening Day this season. And while the energy wrought by a sizable new place on the payroll helps to capture national attention in a certain way on its own, Hoerner's early performance might propel him up the list of players deemed "elite" in 2026. 

While we're still operating within a small sample, fWAR pegs Hoerner as one of the seven-most valuable position players in baseball up to this point. His 1.1 fWAR (as of the series opener against the Phillies) ranks third in the National League, trailing only Andy Pages and Jordan Walker. Much of his .308/.422/.481 line also checks in among the league's best, with an OAA figure that ranks eighth among all position players at present. 

It isn't so much that Hoerner's standing among the very best rings as surprising. He was in the top 20 in fWAR last year, so it stands to reason that even modest improvement combined with regression from others in that portion of the board could help him to ascend. What's a little more jarring in this case is what Hoerner is on pace to do and where that could land him among the game's position players by season's end. That idea can help to inform us as to what is driving Hoerner to look even more impressive as a baseball player thus far in 2026.

If he continued at his current pace, Hoerner would be in line for a .912 OPS finish. His wRC+ would check in at 160, with a dozen home runs and 58 steals. His fWAR would read a gaudy 11.5. Considering the relatively modest output he's posted on the offensive side — where he's been more of that solid rather than elite beyond his contact skills — most of this is unsustainable. However, such an astonishing fWAR pace at this point in the season speaks to where Hoerner has been thriving to this point in the year. 

FanGraphs' WAR metric is determined by the following: 

WAR = (Batting Runs + Base Running Runs + Fielding Runs + Positional Adjustment + League Adjustment +Replacement Runs) / (Runs Per Win)

The formula itself is not complicated. But each of those "runs" metrics and various adjustments offer a certain degree of nuance. Especially when you look at the area of this in which we're most interested: Batting Runs. Therein, wOBA is the predominant factor with park adjustments and league averages coming into play. In short, wOBA represents some individuals' preferred comprehensive offensive metric, essentially due to the fact that it offers weight to various types of hits and means of reaching base. This, dear reader, is where we begin to find what is driving Hoerner's impressive performance this year.

Hoerner's wOBA sits at .409 entering Philadelphia. His previous career best under that category was last year's .324 mark. That's a sizable gap. There are two elements driving his increased wOBA thus far; the first is his increased walk rate. Hoerner is drawing free passes 13.0 percent of the time, which would obliterate his previous career-high of 10.0 back in 2021. Further, he's on pace for 69 doubles and 12 homers. While the latter would represent a narrow edge over the 10 home runs he hit in 2022, that volume of doubles would nearly double the 35 he hit in 2024. Walks and doubles (i.e., gap-to-gap power), in addition to everything else he was already doing well, are propelling Nico Hoerner into the ranks of the game's very elite. 

It remains to be seen how much of this is sustainable. It's not that Hoerner's eye is better; it's that he's become less inclined to swing at a high rate until he finds a more favorable pitch. Could he slip into old tendencies and increase aggression as the season wears on? Sure. That might cost him a little bit in either regard (though, as Matt Trueblood examined, there's a slight mechanical change at play that's boosting his improved slugging output).

Ultimately, though, we're looking at a player who was complete and set within his skill set undergoing further evolution to take his game to the next level. As frustrating as elements of this offense have been in the early going, Nico Hoerner's continued ascent represents a fascinating development to monitor as the season progresses.

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