Cubs' Lineup Woes Are the Result of Navigating the Perils of A "Sequential" Offense

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Caveats abound at this early stage of the season, but the Chicago Cubs are, at present and at best, a mediocre offensive team. A number of components will even out as the sample grows, but it's a hard idea to deny for a team that ranks 19th in runs scored, 24th in isolated power, and 22nd in wRC+. The inability to score runs consistently across an objectively easier portion of the calendar than they'll face in the coming weeks is frustrating from a viewership standpoint. It also doesn't feel terribly surprising. 

Under Craig Counsell as manager, it seems like the Cubs have always been working within a solid foundational process. They work good counts, they're able to draw walks, and they square up contact. The results themselves, however, have not always followed. In April of 2024, they were ninth in the league in runs scored. Then, in May that same year, they were 26th; in June, they were 27th. They got back to the middle of the pack in July before finishing in the top six in each of the season's final two months. In April of 2025, no team scored more runs than the Cubs' 184. They were third in runs in May before falling to 15th in June and 11th in July. The sputtering truly began in August when they ranked 27th before crawling back up to just outside the top 10 in September. 

Not that that's meant as criticism of Counsell or his coaching staff directly. The process is there. In each of those two seasons, the Cubs ranked in the top 10 in the league in walk rate and on-base percentage. In 2024, they were 13th in the league in squared-up contact before ranking in the top five last season. They have a presence on the bases and are able to generate meaningful contact. What they lack in bat speed, they trade in for efficiency. The issue is that their approach combines with personnel to create a rather difficult needle to thread. It requires collective effort and collective success for its merits to be realized.

Following Saturday's loss to the Pittsburgh Pirates (in which the Cubs created plenty of traffic that didn't result in runs), Counsell noted the following: 

Quote

"Offense is sequential. And on days when it’s difficult for the home run to be a part of your offense, it’s even more important that sequential offense happens. You have to have three, four straight good at-bats to score runs, because you’re going to get some home runs knocked down. That’s part of it."

Therein lies exactly the problem we're seeing manifest with these Cubs at the plate. 

As recently as last year, the Cubs were occasionally accused of being too reliant on home runs to score offense. Those accusations weren't entirely off base. The thing about home runs is that they aren't always going to be in your offensive bag, especially when you're playing home games at Wrigley Field in April. Counsell's comment speaks to the issue we're seeing unfold and the difficulty a team can have to thread the needle when you're built the way they are. 

The Cubs do not have an offensive driver. There are loud tools mixed in throughout the lineup, sure. But they do not have a hitter who is going to unlock elite swing speed or make contact at a rate rarely seen on Statcast. The kind that can carry a lineup over a stretch. Their game is in a collective efficiency that raises the floor. Right now, the process toward that efficiency is playing out. They're top five in the league in walk rate (12.1 percent) and are fourth in the league in squared-up contact rate (35.8 percent). 

However, this philosophy requires the majority of the lineup to be locked into the process in addition to the need for timely hitting. You need those extra ingredients to find more than the floor on offense. The Cubs do not have the majority going the right way at the plate, nor have they received such timely hitting. 

Ian Happ is striking out roughly 36 percent of the time. Each of Dansby Swanson and Pete Crow-Armstrong were doing so at a rate pushing 30 and neither has had any power to speak of to compensate. Michael Busch hadn't recorded a hit in 30 trips to the plate prior to sitting on Sunday. The Cubs' .209 average with runners on ranks 28th in the league. Swanson notwithstanding given his place in the batting order, these are crucial elements of the lineup that need to be demonstrating the process set forth by this team in order to generate runs. The balance for Nico Hoerner's excellence or Alex Bregman's extreme batted ball misfortune (.213 BABIP) simply does not exist. And this team is not built to score in most other ways.

Even with the return of Seiya Suzuki adding something new to the lineup than we've seen for the first few weeks, what we are seeing is a natural byproduct of the team's roster construction. Individuals need to adopt the philosophy, and once a certain volume of your lineup is executing said process, the runs will come. The Cubs don't have that volume, and they're struggling to score. Until things even out in that respect, in addition to the natural leveling of statistical outcomes over the course of a baseball season, this type of peak-and-valley trend in their run production is liable to continue.

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