Jameson Taillon's Current Skill Set Makes Him Ideal for 2026 Cubs

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No starting pitcher has thrown more innings for the Chicago Cubs over the last three years than Jameson Taillon. In fact, his 445. 1/3 innings since 2023 lead the group by a healthy margin. The gap is due to a combination of injury and turnover, and while those mitigating forces constraining others' workloads is not ideal on its own, that it's led to such a high volume of work from Taillon also presents its share of issues. 

In general, Taillon's numbers look fine over that stretch. Since 2023, he's pitched to a 3.96 ERA (4.39 FIP) and a solid 5.5% walk rate. You can work with that. But that he doesn't lead the team in fWAR (despite making 22 more starts than the closest arm) speaks to some of the struggles we've begun to see within that timeframe. 

The 2025 season is indicative of how Taillon's game has regressed in certain respects in the last three years: 

Note the quality of the walk rate and the fact that his actual ERA fairly reflects his expected one. Each of those will work. Taillon also navigates his way around hard contact effectively. The issues lie in the fact that his fastball velocity has fallen from the 44th percentile in 2023 (93.7 MPH) to just the 20th in 2025 (92.3 MPH). When you combine waning velocity with a minuscule groundball rate, you get a home run rate that has become problematic. 

Taillon's homer rate on fly balls in 2025 was 13.6%. It was the highest of his career and, no doubt, the byproduct of allowing 23.4% of batted balls against him to be pulled in the air. That his fastball reliance was at its highest since 2021 might also have something to do with it: 

Taillon's four-seam heater is a fine pitch. It had a run value of 3, while his no. 2 pitch in usage (the sweeper) finished at -9. The four-seamer, though, is responsible for Taillon's highest rate of barrels allowed (10.8%) and his highest rate of flyballs (41.9%). You don't want your highest-volume arm to have a fastball that hittable.

The good news is that Taillon's role is projected to shift quite a bit in 2026. Cade Horton emerged as the viable frontline arm that his upside indicated. Justin Steele is nearing his return from an internal brace procedure. The team acquired Edward Cabrera from Miami to fortify the front end of the rotation. If we're assuming full health (a risky proposition), Taillon is, at best, the team's no. 4 starter.

In a No. 4—or even a No. 5 depending on the fortunes of Matthew Boyd and Shota Imanaga—you're not looking for the 2018 version of Taillon, when he posted his best ERA (3.20), his best strikeout rate (22.8%), and his highest fWAR (3.9). You're just looking for someone to eat innings while minimizing traffic on the basepaths and, subsequently, not making life difficult for your bullpen. Even with the recent home run issues, Taillon is very much that guy. 

Over this three-year stretch in Chicago, Taillon has averaged 5.6 innings per start. In 2025, that number was 5.8 innings. His walk rate topped out at 6.3% in 2023, before dropping to 4.9% and 5.2% in the last two years, respectively. He's also coming off a year in which he posted a career-best strand rate (80.3%). So while the fly balls do represent an issue, it's not as if the bases are packed when it's happening. If anything, his splits indicate that with runners on or in scoring, the usage shifts in a manner that stifles quality contact and balls over the fence. Whether that skill is sustainable, even with tailored usage, is a fair question, but he managed it last year.

We can outline two important components of Taillon and his role in 2026. The first is that the homers may continue to be an issue, based on usage and underlying trends with his fastball. The second is that such a trend is mitigated, thanks to the fact that he's sitting closer to the back of the rotation than ever. An innings eater free of traffic and a normal transition from starter to reliever within the context of a typical start? The Cubs can work with that.

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