Chicago Cubs Arbitration Decisions & Projections: Reese McGuire

[Jason Ross]

Image courtesy of © Isaiah J. Downing-Imagn Images

 

 

C : Reese McGuire 
Age on Opening Day 2026: 31
Service Time: 5.1 years
2023 Salary: 1,225,000
2024 Salary: $1,500,000
2025 Salary: $2,000,000
2026 Salary (Projection): $1,900,000

Background:
Reese McGuire signed a minor league contract with the Chicago Cubs in January 2025. The veteran catcher was expected to split catching duties in Iowa with top prospect Moises Ballesteros while waiting in the wings in case of injury befalling either Carson Kelly or Miguel Amaya. McGuire had bounced around between the Toronto Blue Jays and the Boston Red Sox in previous seasons as a backup. Despite carrying a disappointing career wRC+, his 87 wRC+ against RHP suggested that in a limited role, he could be a useful member of an MLB organization.

2025 Season:
When Amaya hit the IL this summer, the Cubs turned to the left-handed hitting catcher to fill in. Hitting not one, but two home runs in his first game with the Cubs, McGuire planted himself on the MLB roster throughout the rest of the season, finishing with a somewhat respectable (for a catcher) 86 wRC+ while allowing his strong defensive ability to carry him to being worth 0.8 fWAR in 140 plate appearances. It looked like the Cubs might have needed to move on from Reese around the trade deadline, but a second injury to Amaya once again showed his importance to the organization as he finished out the year as Kelly's understudy.

Cubs Depth at Catcher: 
Carson Kelly: 115 wRC+, 2.6 fWAR (111 games) - 40 man roster
Miguel Amaya: 124 wRC+, .9 fWAR (28 games) - 40 man roster
Moises Ballesteros: 120 wRC+, .3 fWAR (20 games) - 40 man roster*
*denotes an optionable player

Summary: 
McGuire was probably as good as could have been hoped for. The catcher hit nine home runs in 140 plate appearances, which was triple his previous career high, while providing plus defense at arguably the most important defensive position on the diamond. It's likely that the Cubs got a bit lucky, as well, considering that McGuire's .290 wOBA crushed his expected wOBA of .266. Regardless, he was exactly what a backup catcher should be: available and capable.

Why the Cubs should offer him a contract:
Good catching is in short supply around the league. Even with hitters like Cal Raleigh, who went bananas in the 2025 season, MLB catchers posted a 94 wRC+; it's not easy to hit and be behind the dish on a daily basis. Beyond just how poor league catching is, catchers get banged up pretty often. Amaya lost half of the season and he isn't unique in losing games to injury; we can expect that the Cubs will need an emergency third catcher at least once in 2026. While the North Siders do have a top prospect in Moises Ballesteros who, in theory, can catch, the reality is that his defense is still a work in progress and I'm not sure he can be trusted to pick up catching duties at the MLB level just yet.

Why the Cubs should not offer him a contract:
With the way MLB rosters are organized today—i.e., they carry 13 pitchers—teams only get to carry four reserve hitters. What this means is that versatility is of the utmost importance. It's why players like Vidal Brujan continue to get looks. With Carson Kelly under contract for 2026, and Miguel Amaya set to be healthy, the Cubs will already have one of their four bench positions spoken for by a catcher-only type. The Cubs are unlikely to devote half of their entire bench to catchers. 

Projection: 
The Cubs non-tender Reese McGuire. I don't think this is necessarily because McGuire is not a capable MLB backup, but a circumstance of their current roster; Carson Kelly was too good in 2025, Miguel Amaya is too young and promising to give up on, and McGuire is not versatile enough. If the veteran catcher had an option left, I think the Cubs would be glad to carry him in Iowa, but he's probably been too good to have to settle for another minor league deal. When you add it all up, even though McGuire acquitted himself well in 2025, he will likely have to find a different organization to call home in 2026.  

What do you think about offering arbitration to Reese McGuire?
Reese McGuire's arbitration case is a unique one. If the Cubs didn't have two capable catchers, he'd be a fine backup, especially at his projected price tag. At the same time, he's not so good you have to keep him around. There are interesting arguments to be made on both sides.

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[Bertz]

I suspect the team will beg Mcguire to go back to Iowa, he'll say no, and then he'll be nontendered.  That's by far the most likely outcome here.  That said I could see three somewhat unlikely scenarios where he's kept around:

1. The team is ending Ballesteros' tenure behind the plate.  This wouldn't be a shocking decision, but it would be shocking timing.  That said he does have a pretty good track at the open DH spot, and maybe they don't want him splitting his attention ("don't half ass two things, whole ass one thing")

2. The team is trading Ballesteros.  I suspect he's the least likely of the Iowa 4 to head out, but it is very likely Jed trades from that stash

3. The team is trading Amaya.  Might actually be a savvy move?  He's clearly made of glass, the measurable aspects of his defense are below average, and it's still reasonably likely that his bat isn't very good (despite spanning two years his offensive breakout is only ~250 PAs)

[Jason Ross]

1 minute ago, Bertz said:

I suspect the team will beg Mcguire to go back to Iowa, he'll say no, and then he'll be nontendered.  That's by far the most likely outcome here.  That said I could see three somewhat unlikely scenarios where he's kept around:

1. The team is ending Ballesteros' tenure behind the plate.  This wouldn't be a shocking decision, but it would be shocking timing.  That said he does have a pretty good track at the open DH spot, and maybe they don't want him splitting his attention ("don't half ass two things, whole ass one thing")

2. The team is trading Ballesteros.  I suspect he's the least likely of the Iowa 4 to head out, but it is very likely Jed trades from that stash

3. The team is trading Amaya.  Might actually be a savvy move?  He's clearly made of glass, the measurable aspects of his defense are below average, and it's still reasonably likely that his bat isn't very good (despite spanning two years his offensive breakout is only ~250 PAs)

Yeah, I think there are some narrow pathways in which the Cubs would tender him, but I think in the end, he'll probably end up somewhere else. With that said, I feel a little like we haven't seen the last of McGuire in a Cub uniform? He seems like the exact kind of player who a team signs to be their backup, he struggles, gets the DFA and then ends up back with the Cubs in Iowa come June. Or a guy who the Cubs trade a low-level prospect for when Amaya gets knocked out again. 

Credit to Reese for even making this debatable. 

[Victor Reichman]

Compliment to Reese for doing a good job as a back up catcher. Even if the Cubs non tender him, he has shown to be a capable catcher with a some pop. I gave him a C+. We shouldn't trade Moises and Kelly had a solid year, I gave him a B. I still like Amaya who  is young, so it's a crowded position. By his play, Reese has earned another year in MLB, it just might not happen with the Cubs. Seemed to be an excellent teammate as well.