Can Cubs' Matt Shaw Really Start Again in NLDS Game 4?

[RandallPnkFloyd]

Image courtesy of © Matt Marton-Imagn Images

It would be a tough ask for one to create a robust list of offensive contributors in the 2025 postseason for the Chicago Cubs. Such is the nature of a team that has scored 16 runs across six games, or 2.7 per game. But even if you made a top-10 list of the top hitters in a nine-man group, Matt Shaw wouldn't make it.

As he did 114 times during the regular season, Shaw has drawn a start at the hot corner for each of the Cubs' six games during these playoffs. Thus far, he's contributed zero hits across 17 plate appearances, with four walks and seven strikeouts to his name. It's not so much the absence of hits as it is both the context around such a void and the fact that he hasn't been particularly close to generating any semblance of value by way of a swing. 

Despite coming out of the wild card round against San Diego, the following has been a familiar sight out of Shaw through the six games he's played: 

We've watched Shaw battle against his mechanics at various points throughout the 2025 season. It's likely we're witnessing yet another manifestation thereof right now. The goal here isn't to identify the specific source of Shaw's postseason woes, however. It's to examine the repercussions, and discuss whether a justification exists to drop him into the starting lineup again for Thursday's Game 4. 

Whatever issues are plaguing Shaw this stage are leading to a couple notable outcomes, both for the player himself and the team as a collective. In terms of his own performance, Shaw has rarely swung the bat throughout these playoffs, with a 41.2% swing rate. Only Ian Happ has a lower rate thus far. The difference is that when Shaw does swing the bat, the outcome is the third-worst contact rate of anyone who has swung a bat for the Cubs this October (65.7%), with a whiff rate five percent higher than he turned in during the regular season. Even the walks have lacked impact, as all four have been isolated to the first two games against Milwaukee, one of which was a blowout loss and the other where the offense proved incapable of supplementing that on-base with any meaningful approach. Besides, just watch him up there. He tried a couple of poking bunts Wednesday, hoping to figure out some way to create an offensive threat, because he's that profoundly lost.

Worse yet is that on those instances where Shaw has made contact, he's created exactly no true threat. He's not alone in a 0.0% barrel rate within this lineup, but he is solo in the 0.0% Hard-Hit% game. It's a mess for Shaw at this point. He's unable to compensate for minimal contact with, at least, impactful contact. Factor in the strikeout woes (41.2%) and the runners he's stranded this postseason (10 of them), and this is simply a player unable to contribute to the collective. Six of his seven strikeouts this postseason have also come against right-handed pitching. If it's to be Freddy Peralta in Game 4, it becomes even more difficult to justify another start for Shaw. 

The issue beyond this specific performance, however, is that the options beyond Shaw don't run deep. 

Justin Turner has one game and two plate appearances to his credit, though he hit much better in that minuscule set of chances than Shaw has. Do you toss the veteran a start at a position at which he logged just 35 innings in 2025, in hopes that there's a certain stabilizing of the lineup that happens as a result? Shaw's chances to have an impact on defense in these playoffs have been limited, anyway. He made a tremendous play to help finish off the Padres, but the Cubs staff is mostly yielding fly balls, and Shaw couldn't do anything about the few hot shots the Brewers sent past him in Game 1.

The only other option at present would be Willi Castro, who hasn't garnered an appearance at the plate and has only been inserted once this postseason overall. He walked at more than a 16% clip in September, but was woeful pretty much everywhere else. The tradeoff there seems negligible. 

That's the issue Counsell now faces. It's hard to justify another start for Shaw, considering the total non-factor he's been at the plate—not just against Milwaukee, but for all six games this postseason. The options behind him, however, also don't inspire much confidence. Do you take the defensive tradeoff and insert a veteran with an extensive run of postseason play? Do you hope that Castro can parlay his own patience into some level of production in the way that Shaw has not? The answer to both questions is probably no at this juncture, leading to the unfortunate outcome of simply requiring Matt Shaw to occupy his usual spot in the lineup and hope for the best. It's malpractice, though, that the team didn't better prepare to plug someone else in there. Their rookie at the hot corner is kaput, for 2025.

View full article

[Victor Reichman]

Ridiculous to suggest benching Shaw. How many defensive runs has he saved? He isn't hitting well now, but helps us form the best defensive IF in the majors. He has 4 or 5 walks in the series and steals bases as well. I believe he got 2 hits yesterday, tho 1 was a blooper.

Justin Turner is a great guy and I hope the Cubs retain him as a Coach, but between Turner and Shaw, it isn't even close.