Can Cubs Trust Matthew Boyd to Make Another NLDS Start?

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It was evident from just about the first pitch of Saturday's Game 1 against the Milwaukee Brewers that Matthew Boyd did not have "it." His sequence—double, double, double, groundout, walk, error, strikeout, single—was perhaps the worst way things could have started for the Chicago Cubs in the five-game series. Even with the important acknowledgement that it's only one game and the work of the bullpen (particularly Aaron Civale) mitigated the consequences of running too deep off such a short start start, questions are sure to emerge regarding Boyd's short-term role. 

That Boyd struggled so mightily against the Brewers did not, unfortunately, come as a surprise. A couple of factors could have predicted as much, in fact. One is the two-game sample we have from Boyd against Milwaukee in 2025. In those two starts, he allowed nine earned runs on 12 hits in 10 1/3 innings. It seems inarguable to say that his skill set is ill-suited to take on a lineup that makes as much contact as the Brewers do. Compound that with short rest, even off of a 58-pitch start, and you have the outcome the Cubs received on Saturday afternoon. 

Where they go from here, though, is certainly a matter for debate as it relates to Boyd. We do know that the Cubs will roll out Shota Imanaga for Game 2, ideally in a more trustworthy fashion than they did against San Diego in deploying an opener. But he also has a 5.73 ERA against Milwaukee in four career starts, so it may end up being a quick hook if he gets into some trouble. Regardless of how that all transpires, you're probably looking at a Jameson Taillon or Colin Rea start in Game 3, assuming the latter isn't involved in some sort of piggyback with Imanaga. Ultimately, Game 4 (should the Cubs get there) lines back up for Boyd to take the ball. But should he? 

It's not as if Boyd's start, brutal as it was, was any kind of outlier for his late-season performance. Just about everywhere, September offered some of the worst numbers we'd seen from him in an otherwise strong campaign. At 5.31, his September ERA was his worst an in individual month. The same was true regarding his FIP (5.69), strikeout rate (14.0 percent), and wOBA against (.343). That latter figure was concerning on its own, but the expected value produced by opposing hitters is particularly jarring: 

If you want to go back to a start where Boyd did not allow a run, you'd have to go back to August 2. In the nine subsequent starts from that point (49 innings), he allowed at least two earned runs in all of them (5.51 ERA). So, not only do you have a guy who has struggled against the Cubs' specific opponent in the National League Division Series, but one who is coming off more than a month where he turned in some of his poorest work across 31 total starts. That his arm angle dropped to its lowest point since the first month of the season (24.4 degrees) in September speaks to a potential cause of all of this: fatigue. 

That's kind of an important notion here, too. You can hardly fault a guy who last crossed the 170 inning threshold in 2019 for burning out to an extent (if that is, indeed, what's happening). Boyd's workload this year has, essentially, been of the same total of his last four seasons combined in terms of volume. If the arm angle drop-off is indicative of some fatigue, even if the velocity and movement have maintained, it's a logical explanation. But it also speaks to the danger of having Boyd run out there for a potential Game 4 start where the team may be facing elimination.

It's possible that the Cubs turn to Boyd as a pseudo-opener in Game 4 and see how it goes. From there—and depending on how things transpire in Game 3—perhaps you've got Colin Rea to assume some of the bulk work in that one. Or Counsell could lean heavily into Aaron Civale considering how sharp he looked amid the disaster of Game 1 (4 1/3 innings, three hits, no walks, 37 strikes on 55 pitches). But there's another caveat even to minimizing his presence later in this series. 

Boyd has been woeful in the first inning since the start of August. In first innings going back 10 starts, he has a 6.30 ERA and a walk rate (6.8 percent) that exceeds his total figure for the season. Sure, he's been a bit unlucky with a groundball rate approaching 47 percent in those innings (.333 BABIP), but this is also an opponent that feasts on batted ball fortune. Even the opener solution isn't foolproof. 

As such, the unfortunate reality is that Counsell probably shouldn't trust Matthew Boyd with another start in this series, though his alternative options are practically nonexistent. The results weren't there in September. They weren't there at any point against the Brewers in his three starts against them to date in 2025. It'd be unreasonable to expect a sudden turnaround when the evidence points firmly in the other direction. It might be an impossible scenario to avoid depending on what kind of volume the Cubs get between now and then, but it'd be a really tough sell to see Boyd pitching with the Cubs' backs up against the wall.

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