Should Chicago Cubs Turn to Jameson Taillon or Colin Rea in Potential Wild Card Game 3?

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Image courtesy of © Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images

The Chicago Cubs will be without rookie starter Cade Horton for at least the Wild Card round of the 2025 postseason—and probably for the whole thing. His absence, which comes by way of a fractured rib, means a couple of different things for this group and their immediate future. Horton led the team in second-half ERA (1.03), FIP (2.80), and fWAR (1.8). That isn't easy value to replace. The team is now tasked with actually trying to replace said value.

Matthew Boyd and Shota Imanaga will each get a start (probably in that order) in the first two games against San Diego. On paper, that's a favorable start to the series against a lineup that skews left-handed—or at least, in light of Fernando Tatis Jr.'s (.845 OPS against right-handed pitchers, .696 against lefties) peculiar splits, is more dangerous overall against right-handed hurlers. That leaves one of Jameson Taillon and Colin Rea in position to nab a start in a potential Game 3, should it progress to that point. To which Craig Counsell would turn in that scenario, though, is anybody's guess at this juncture. 

On the whole, Taillon has had an underwhelming season. He's made 23 starts, with a 3.68 ERA, a 4.66 FIP, and the lowest strikeout rate of his career (18.1%). Even with the lack of punchouts, it's still a fine year, but he's had issues with the home run ball. Taillon's 13.6% HR/FB rate is his highest since his rookie campaign in 2016, and is tied with Imanaga for the worst rate on the team. But despite his battles with the go-fer ball, Taillon actually has a couple of factors working in his favor. 

For one, the Padres are not a team particularly adept at hitting home runs. Their 148 homers rank just 28th in the majors, and they own a .136 collective ISO that sits in the same position. They're neither clearing fences or splitting gaps at a high rate. Taillon is also above-average at limiting hard contact, on a per-batted ball basis. He should be able to keep San Diego in the park, and under the wraps of the Cubs' excellent defense. 

If, for some reason, Counsell eschews his highly-paid veteran, then it'll likely be Colin Rea out of the starting gate in a Game 3. Rea has been a stabilizing force for a team that has fought against rotation issues all year, going for an ERA of 3.95, a 4.12 FIP, a 19.2% strikeout rate, and a 6.8% walk rate. Like Taillon, Rea has been quite good in the second half (3.14 FIP, 22.1 K%), so he carries a certain amount of momentum into October in his own right. Where his counterpart may have the advantage, though, is in Taillon's work against left-handers. 

• Taillon vs. LHH: .200 AVG, 21.2 K%, 7.2 BB%, 13.9 HR/FB%, .275 wOBA
• Rea vs. LHH: .292 AVG, 19.0 K%, 9.2 BB%, 14.9 HR/FB%, .366 wOBA

And there's your separator. Regardless of who starts, that individual is going to have to contend with Jackson Merrill, Gavin Sheets, and Jake Cronenworth. Factor in the contact factor from Luis Arráez or the potential for Ryan O'Hearn to suddenly break out, and that's a volume of lefties you'd like to manage as efficiently as possible. Given that this group isn't also concentrated in any specific portion of the lineup, it really does leave Taillon as the more appropriate option of the two.

There are, of course, caveats to any Game 3 situation. Quick hooks will likely abound, which means that there could be a need for volume beyond the starter. 

If the game is managing the left-handed hitters in the Padres' lineup, then Michael Soroka could be first in line for a multi-inning appearance, ahead of Javier Assad. Left-handed hitters have a .320 wOBA against Soroka and a .363 mark against Assad in '25. Soroka also offers quite a bit more in the strikeout game (25.2%, compared to Assad's 12.7%). Against a Padres team that doesn't strike out and scores runs largely on the strength of their on-base volume, there's a pretty clear path for the middle innings as well. 

It's going to be a lot for Counsell to navigate. The Cubs will enter the Wild Card Series with a decent collection of relief arms, but you're also operating within the confines of just three games. Length and efficiency will be needed from each of Boyd and Imanaga, before Counsell can even begin to roll out a coherent gameplan for what would happen in a Game 3. But compounding Taillon with Soroka does appear to be the most effective initial idea, depending on what else happens between the certain now and the possible then.

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