ESPN Doesn't Project a Rosy Future for the Cubs. Are They Right?

[Brian Kelder]

Image courtesy of © Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images

Outstanding ESPN reporter Kiley McDaniel published earlier this week that has quite a lot to say about the state of Major League Baseball. It's an outstanding read, focusing on the core talent that MLB teams have locked in for two full seasons after this one. The Cubs did not fare particularly well in this. The article placed them 17th, in the bottom half of teams in the league.

Players are broken down into the following tiers: Elite (5+WAR, All-Star talent, MVP potential), Plus (3-5 WAR types), and Solid (1-3 WAR, solid starter or good role player). The Cubs had one Elite (Pete Crow-Armstrong), two Plus (Dansby Swanson and Michael Busch), and 13 Solid players (too numerous to place a cumbersome list in front of you). Of the solid players, seven of the 13 are prospects, one is an injured Justin Steele, and Miguel Amaya is a debatable add given his struggles to stay on the field. 

The first takeaway here is that the Cubs have a ton of work to do on this front. They only have three players in their lineup in the top two tiers that are under control beyond 2026. Given past history, it's quite unlikely that Ian Happ, Seiya Suzuki, and Kyle Tucker make up the Cubs outfield in 2027. The rotation is similarly not locked up, with only Cade Horton guaranteed to be around at that time (who McDaniel grossly underestimates as a "Solid" piece). 

This season has (mostly) been a pleasure to watch, but there's always been a bit of a stain to it; since the beginning, it has felt like a one-year situation. The position players whose contracts are ending soon are going to be over 30, not the type of players that Jed Hoyer typically invests in. A quick look at the pitching staff reveals mostly the same. Matthew Boyd, Caleb Thielbar, and the parade of elderly relievers have been great, but is this repeatable? The stench of a one-year wonder in the vein of the 2021 Giants or the White Sox of that same season follows this team.

Hoyer surely planned to have the farm system replace the aging veterans. That system has produced some great talent, but it hasn't kept up with graduations and trades, getting ranked 19th by ESPN and 22 by Fangraphs in mid-season updates. None of the prospects according to the Fangraphs' Future Value system project to have more WAR than the players currently on the roster. Players like Jonathan Long, Owen Caissie, and Jefferson Rojas simply don't project to outperform Ian Happ, Nico Hoerner, and Seiya Suzuki, though they do at least have relatively high ceilings.

Pitching development, a major plank in the Cubs' platform, has basically failed in the minors. Look at the top prospects in pitching for Chicago:

Brandon Birdsell: Injured after just eight starts and 32 innings, likely to miss most or all of 2026

Jordan Wicks: 8.71 ERA while riding the Iowa to Chicago shuttle

Jaxon Wiggins: missed significant time with injury, which is to be expected with a 100 MPH fastball

The rest of the top 30 organizational prospects are toiling in the low minors. The Cubs will have to roll the dice and try to find the next Matthew Boyd. They'll also have to pray Cade Horton stays healthy, an iffy proposition given his past. The pipeline is otherwise dry as far as pitching in the minors.

With the farm system drying up, the Cubs will have to adjust their spending strategy. In short, they will have to maybe pass the arbitrary line that the IVY model spits out for contracts. It's probably asking too much for, say, Kevin Alcantara to come in and do what Ian Happ did, especially given his struggles against breaking balls. This farm system does not look to be ready to replace what will be leaving.

This is the major challenge the Cubs will have after this year. "Contention Window" needs to be a phrase this organization does not use. Every year should be an attempt to contend in a market like Chicago. Hopefully, Jed Hoyer and the front office will be able to pull a rabbit out of their hats and prove ESPN wrong.

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[JBears79]

I agree with it. Especially with a FO and ownership terrified to spend money on good players.