The Brewers Have Passed the Cubs in More Than Just the Standings

[Bryan Jaeger]

Image courtesy of © Benny Sieu-Imagn Images

The Chicago Cubs have had one of the best offenses all season, leading MLB in run differential for most of the season. Their +115 run differential is heavily swayed by their +44 in April and +46 in May, but although they've still had a positive number in June, July, and August, it's only a combined +17. Manager Craig Counsell was enjoying the early success and had a lead of, at most, 6.5 games in the NL Central; however, over the last three months, including August, the Milwaukee Brewers have been on a hot streak. Counsell is now staring up at his former ball club, taking the lead in the division (four-game lead) and run differential (+127).

The lack of run differential can be attributed to both the Cubs' offense and pitching. On offense, the team has been a roller coaster. Matt Shaw, despite a hot streak in recent weeks, is hitting .222/.234/.289 on the season. Ian Happ and Carson Kelly both started March and April on a productive note, but have since cooled off. Happ (.265) and Kelly (.360) started the season hitting well, but have dropped since to .211 and .242, respectively. Dansby Swanson was the reverse compared to Happ and Kelly, hitting just .203 through April, but has since hit .255, a solid but unspectacular average. These four have been nearly every-day starters and part of the reason the offensive production has slowed down over the last two months

Pitching has been mediocre all season, ranking 14th in starting pitching (3.94) and 12th in bullpen (3.91) ERAs. Sadly, the team lost the ace Justin Steele in April after he had season-ending surgery to repair the flexor tendon and UCL in his left elbow. Although he had struggled in his four starts with a 4.76 ERA, he's been one of the Cubs' top starters the last three seasons.

 

Matthew Boyd (2.34) is the only starting pitcher with an ERA under 3.00. Shota Imanaga (3.12) and Cade Horton (3.42) are the only other starters under a 4.00 ERA. Colin Rea (4.23), Jameson Taillon (4.44), and Ben Brown (6.04) have been varying levels of disappointing throughout the season. Fans wanted a starting pitcher added at the trade deadline, but President of Baseball Operations Jed Hoyer only added Michael Soroka from the Washington Nationals. However, Soroka left his only start with the Cubs on Monday due to shoulder discomfort and has been shut down for seven-10 days. Hoyer refused to give up the prospects needed to obtain a better option at the position, and now it looks bad as Brown will return to the rotation with no depth behind him until Taillon, Soroka, or Javier Assad, who has been out all season, return from their injury list stints.

 

The bullpen has been slightly better at keeping runs off the board, though it isn't elite in that department. Daniel Palencia (1.55) and Drew Pomeranz (1.99) have been outstanding in the back-end of the bullpen, posting under a 2.00 ERA in 39 and 37 appearances, respectively. Caleb Thielbar (2.34) and Brad Keller (2.76) have been the workhorses in the middle innings, making over 45 appearances. Taylor Rogers and Andrew Kittredge were solid acquisitions at the trade deadline to strengthen the bullpen. He's made three appearances and has yet to give up an earned run.

 

Now, the concerning run differential the Brewers have put up in June (+41), July (+39), and the early part of August (+32) shows how hot they've been and shows no signs of easing up. They've suffered injuries to a couple of star players, but that hasn't hurt the production. Jackson Chourio (.276/.311/.474) injured his hamstring on July 30 and is expected to miss most, if not all, of August and some of September, but even that hasn't impacted the Brew Crew.

 

Rookie Jacob Misiorowski (2.70 ERA) has been phenomenal in his short MLB debut, but he suffered a left tibia contusion on July 31 and looks to return mid-August. However, Logan Henderson was recalled to replace Misiorowski and has been just as good, posting a 1.78 ERA over his first five starts of the entire season (four of which were at the beginning of the season).

 

Rhys Hoskins has been out as well since July 7, due to a Grade 2 left thumb sprain. His return isn't expected until September, though. Andrew Vaughn was a surprise trade acquisition for multiple reasons. Hoskins was healthy at the time of the trade, so Vaughn was sent to Triple-A, and another reason was that Vaughn was struggling this season, hitting .189 while with the Chicago White Sox. However, Hoskins got injured, and Vaughn has turned his season around in Milwaukee. In only 21 games with the Brewers, the first baseman is hitting .370/.435/.462 with six home runs, 13 runs, and 26 knocked in.

 

Pitching-wise, the Brewers' starters have done a fantastic job keeping runs off the scoreboard. They rank second in ERA (3.34), being led by Henderson, Misiorowski, Freddy Peralta (3.03 ERA), and Brandon Woodruff (2.22), who just made his 2025 debut on July 6, after missing the beginning of the season due to shoulder surgery in October 2023, and missed the entire 2024 season.

 

It's a massive boost to a team when you know you can get five or six quality innings out of your starters and give the bullpen a minimal amount of innings to work with. The Brewers' bullpen ranks 16th in ERA (3.97), though that unit is far less taxed than the Cubs' overworked relief crew.

 

The good news for Cubs fans is that the team has the 28th-easiest strength of schedule remaining. In the remaining 48 games, seven of which come against the league's worst record, the Colorado Rockies, and three against the second-worst record, the White Sox. Plus, five will come against the Brewers who have the fifth-hardest schedule remaining. They have three games remaining against the Toronto Blue Jays, Philadelphia Phillies, San Diego Padres, and New York Mets.

 

Despite the slow last three months, it's too early to give up on the Cubs, even as the Brewers have usurped them in both the standings and run differential race. Some healthy returns to the rotation and some returns to form in the lineup could catapult the Cubs back to their comfortable position atop both leaderboards.

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[UMFan83]

15 hours ago, Bryan Jaeger said:

The good news for Cubs fans is that the team has the 28th-easiest strength of schedule remaining. In the remaining 48 games, seven of which come against the league's worst record, the Colorado Rockies, and three against the second-worst record, the White Sox. Plus, five will come against the Brewers who have the fifth-hardest schedule remaining. They have three games remaining against the Toronto Blue Jays, Philadelphia Phillies, San Diego Padres, and New York Mets.

 

The Cubs have 3 games left against the Rockies and 0 left against the White Sox.  They also don't play the Phillies or Padres.

[Bryan Jaeger]

I worded that poorly. The Brewers play the Phillies and Padres, but yes, I accidentally looked at the wrong line for the Rockies and White Sox games.

[Jeff Alson]

Also, Shaw is not hitting .222/.234/.289, but rather is hitting .222/.286/.360. More important, since the break, he has been a better-than-average hitter and, I believe, leads the Cubs in homers.