Cubs have interest in Kotsay

[jjgman21]

if you're talking about a short term solution for this year only, why not Lawton instead of Kotsay? he plays the position you're looking to fill (albeit not well) so no centerfield controversy, costs about the same but requires no commitment beyond October, matches Kotsay every bit in OBP, and plays for a team that will probably be looking to dump a salary instead of fleece the highest bidder of prospects.

[USSoccer]

I just thought it would be nice to point out here that the Yankees are starting Matsui, Womack and Sierra in the OF right now. They're desperate out there. They might not have what the Cubs have, but they might be more willing to trade what they do have.

 

We're starting Hollandsworth, Patterson, Burnitz. We should be desperate too.

 

Do we have anyone who Beane would covet, given his track record, needs, and preferences?

 

Murton?

 

So we put a package together centering on Murton?

 

Would you do Murton/Dopirak/Mitre?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I just thought it would be nice to point out here that the Yankees are starting Matsui, Womack and Sierra in the OF right now. They're desperate out there. They might not have what the Cubs have, but they might be more willing to trade what they do have.

 

We're starting Hollandsworth, Patterson, Burnitz. We should be desperate too.

 

Do we have anyone who Beane would covet, given his track record, needs, and preferences?

 

Murton?

 

So we put a package together centering on Murton?

 

Would you do Murton/Dopirak/Mitre?

 

Those 3 for Kotsay and a bullpen arm? I'd think about it, depending on who we got for the pen(Ducscherer(sp?), Garcia, Street, maybe even Dote?)

[badger1679666666]

I just thought it would be nice to point out here that the Yankees are starting Matsui, Womack and Sierra in the OF right now. They're desperate out there. They might not have what the Cubs have, but they might be more willing to trade what they do have.

 

We're starting Hollandsworth, Patterson, Burnitz. We should be desperate too.

 

Do we have anyone who Beane would covet, given his track record, needs, and preferences?

 

Murton?

 

So we put a package together centering on Murton?

 

Would you do Murton/Dopirak/Mitre?

 

Those 3 for Kotsay and a bullpen arm? I'd think about it, depending on who we got for the pen(Ducscherer(sp?), Garcia, Street, maybe even Dote?)

 

If you think you're getting street, you should give me whatever you are smoking, because I would really appreciate it.

 

:wink:

[USSoccer]

I just thought it would be nice to point out here that the Yankees are starting Matsui, Womack and Sierra in the OF right now. They're desperate out there. They might not have what the Cubs have, but they might be more willing to trade what they do have.

 

We're starting Hollandsworth, Patterson, Burnitz. We should be desperate too.

 

Do we have anyone who Beane would covet, given his track record, needs, and preferences?

 

Murton?

 

So we put a package together centering on Murton?

 

Would you do Murton/Dopirak/Mitre?

 

Those 3 for Kotsay and a bullpen arm? I'd think about it, depending on who we got for the pen(Ducscherer(sp?), Garcia, Street, maybe even Dote?)

 

I think Dotel had elbow sugery a month ago or so.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I just thought it would be nice to point out here that the Yankees are starting Matsui, Womack and Sierra in the OF right now. They're desperate out there. They might not have what the Cubs have, but they might be more willing to trade what they do have.

 

We're starting Hollandsworth, Patterson, Burnitz. We should be desperate too.

 

Do we have anyone who Beane would covet, given his track record, needs, and preferences?

 

Murton?

 

So we put a package together centering on Murton?

 

Would you do Murton/Dopirak/Mitre?

 

Those 3 for Kotsay and a bullpen arm? I'd think about it, depending on who we got for the pen(Ducscherer(sp?), Garcia, Street, maybe even Dotel?)

 

I think Dotel had elbow sugery a month ago or so.

 

Yeah, I wasn't sure how long he is out for, so I threw his name in there for good measure.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Do we have anyone who Beane would covet, given his track record, needs, and preferences?

 

Murton?

 

So we put a package together centering on Murton?

 

Would you do Murton/Dopirak/Mitre?

 

Those 3 for Kotsay and a bullpen arm? I'd think about it, depending on who we got for the pen(Ducscherer(sp?), Garcia, Street, maybe even Dotel?)

 

If you think you're getting street, you should give me whatever you are smoking, because I would really appreciate it.

 

:wink:

 

Yeah, just throwing names out there. Duchscherer would be nice.

Edited June 28, 2005 by Transmogrified Tiger

[USSoccer]

We've identified Murton as a guy Beane would want. Now who's a pitcher in our system who he'd want, based on his tendencies?

[jjgman21]

virtually all of Beane's pen is young and cheap, except Rincon who is old and relatively cheap. Beane's not trading any of the young ones, and with Rusch moving to the pen, Rincon's not a fit.

 

 

again...or you could have Lawton and the same production for minor league spare change instead of two of our top hitting prospects and our only ML ready starter.

[USSoccer]

virtually all of Beane's pen is young and cheap, except Rincon who is old and relatively cheap. Beane's not trading any of the young ones, and with Rusch moving to the pen, Rincon's not a fit.

 

 

again...or you could have Lawton and the same production for minor league spare change instead of two of our top hitting prospects and our only ML ready starter.

 

Lawton fades down the stretch like no one's business.

 

Murton is a perfect trading chip. Great numbers and performance, but doesn't project for power in a power spot. Dopirak has had 1 great year, and is still far away. 1B aren't tough to find, really, and this makes Dope a great trading chip. Mitre is our most tradable P, since he's had ML success, is a sinkerballer, and blocked by Williams and Rusch.

 

I think Rincon and Kotsay are worth that trade. It's a fair deal for both teams.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

virtually all of Beane's pen is young and cheap, except Rincon who is old and relatively cheap. Beane's not trading any of the young ones, and with Rusch moving to the pen, Rincon's not a fit.

 

 

again...or you could have Lawton and the same production for minor league spare change instead of two of our top hitting prospects and our only ML ready starter.

 

Lawton fades down the stretch like no one's business.

 

Murton is a perfect trading chip. Great numbers and performance, but doesn't project for power in a power spot. Dopirak has had 1 great year, and is still far away. 1B aren't tough to find, really, and this makes Dope a great trading chip. Mitre is our most tradable P, since he's had ML success, is a sinkerballer, and blocked by Williams and Rusch.

 

I think Rincon and Kotsay are worth that trade. It's a fair deal for both teams.

 

I prefer Duchscherer, since he still has more time under team control. Since we're giving up a lot of talent that Oakland will have for a while, I'd like to have someone guaranteed beyond next year.

[USSoccer]

virtually all of Beane's pen is young and cheap, except Rincon who is old and relatively cheap. Beane's not trading any of the young ones, and with Rusch moving to the pen, Rincon's not a fit.

 

 

again...or you could have Lawton and the same production for minor league spare change instead of two of our top hitting prospects and our only ML ready starter.

 

Lawton fades down the stretch like no one's business.

 

Murton is a perfect trading chip. Great numbers and performance, but doesn't project for power in a power spot. Dopirak has had 1 great year, and is still far away. 1B aren't tough to find, really, and this makes Dope a great trading chip. Mitre is our most tradable P, since he's had ML success, is a sinkerballer, and blocked by Williams and Rusch.

 

I think Rincon and Kotsay are worth that trade. It's a fair deal for both teams.

 

I prefer Duchscherer, since he still has more time under team control. Since we're giving up a lot of talent that Oakland will have for a while, I'd like to have someone guaranteed beyond next year.

 

Me too, but Beane probably wouldn't give him up, and since Kotsay is the target, I wouldn't get bent out of shape over which middle reliever I got in return.

[jjgman21]

virtually all of Beane's pen is young and cheap, except Rincon who is old and relatively cheap. Beane's not trading any of the young ones, and with Rusch moving to the pen, Rincon's not a fit.

 

 

again...or you could have Lawton and the same production for minor league spare change instead of two of our top hitting prospects and our only ML ready starter.

 

Lawton fades down the stretch like no one's business.

 

Murton is a perfect trading chip. Great numbers and performance, but doesn't project for power in a power spot. Dopirak has had 1 great year, and is still far away. 1B aren't tough to find, really, and this makes Dope a great trading chip. Mitre is our most tradable P, since he's had ML success, is a sinkerballer, and blocked by Williams and Rusch.

 

I think Rincon and Kotsay are worth that trade. It's a fair deal for both teams.

 

I didn't know that about Lawton, but I see you are right.

 

but how about this, assume Erstad were still playing center. would you trade Mitre, Murton, and Dope for a deal for him and Scott Sauerbeck? of course you wouldn't, but current and career performance tells you that the the players are amazingly comparable.

 

something about being a Beane boy makes people want to over pay.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

virtually all of Beane's pen is young and cheap, except Rincon who is old and relatively cheap. Beane's not trading any of the young ones, and with Rusch moving to the pen, Rincon's not a fit.

 

 

again...or you could have Lawton and the same production for minor league spare change instead of two of our top hitting prospects and our only ML ready starter.

 

Lawton fades down the stretch like no one's business.

 

Murton is a perfect trading chip. Great numbers and performance, but doesn't project for power in a power spot. Dopirak has had 1 great year, and is still far away. 1B aren't tough to find, really, and this makes Dope a great trading chip. Mitre is our most tradable P, since he's had ML success, is a sinkerballer, and blocked by Williams and Rusch.

 

I think Rincon and Kotsay are worth that trade. It's a fair deal for both teams.

 

I didn't know that about Lawton, but I see you are right.

 

but how about this, assume Erstad were still playing center. would you trade Mitre, Murton, and Dope for a deal for him and Scott Sauerbeck? of course you wouldn't, but current and career performance tells you that the the players are amazingly comparable.

 

something about being a Beane boy makes people want to over pay.

 

Erstad?

 

I was sold on Kotsay thanks to Diffusion's comments in this thread or another regarding Kotsay. I wouldn't overpay by much, but we'll likely have him for next year, and if we can add a dynamite 8th inning arm that we control for 4 years like Duchscherer, then I think it's worth the proposed cost.

[USSoccer]

virtually all of Beane's pen is young and cheap, except Rincon who is old and relatively cheap. Beane's not trading any of the young ones, and with Rusch moving to the pen, Rincon's not a fit.

 

 

again...or you could have Lawton and the same production for minor league spare change instead of two of our top hitting prospects and our only ML ready starter.

 

Lawton fades down the stretch like no one's business.

 

Murton is a perfect trading chip. Great numbers and performance, but doesn't project for power in a power spot. Dopirak has had 1 great year, and is still far away. 1B aren't tough to find, really, and this makes Dope a great trading chip. Mitre is our most tradable P, since he's had ML success, is a sinkerballer, and blocked by Williams and Rusch.

 

I think Rincon and Kotsay are worth that trade. It's a fair deal for both teams.

 

I didn't know that about Lawton, but I see you are right.

 

but how about this, assume Erstad were still playing center. would you trade Mitre, Murton, and Dope for a deal for him and Scott Sauerbeck? of course you wouldn't, but current and career performance tells you that the the players are amazingly comparable.

 

something about being a Beane boy makes people want to over pay.

 

Touche, but Kotsay has been generally more consistent. Erstad had the one monster OBP year, but otherwise not great. Kotsay has been more steady the last 5 years.

 

Your comparison, however, is a little too accurate for my comfort.

[USSoccer]

virtually all of Beane's pen is young and cheap, except Rincon who is old and relatively cheap. Beane's not trading any of the young ones, and with Rusch moving to the pen, Rincon's not a fit.

 

 

again...or you could have Lawton and the same production for minor league spare change instead of two of our top hitting prospects and our only ML ready starter.

 

Lawton fades down the stretch like no one's business.

 

Murton is a perfect trading chip. Great numbers and performance, but doesn't project for power in a power spot. Dopirak has had 1 great year, and is still far away. 1B aren't tough to find, really, and this makes Dope a great trading chip. Mitre is our most tradable P, since he's had ML success, is a sinkerballer, and blocked by Williams and Rusch.

 

I think Rincon and Kotsay are worth that trade. It's a fair deal for both teams.

 

I didn't know that about Lawton, but I see you are right.

 

but how about this, assume Erstad were still playing center. would you trade Mitre, Murton, and Dope for a deal for him and Scott Sauerbeck? of course you wouldn't, but current and career performance tells you that the the players are amazingly comparable.

 

something about being a Beane boy makes people want to over pay.

 

Erstad?

 

I was sold on Kotsay thanks to Diffusion's comments in this thread or another regarding Kotsay. I wouldn't overpay by much, but we'll likely have him for next year, and if we can add a dynamite 8th inning arm that we control for 4 years like Duchscherer, then I think it's worth the proposed cost.

 

 

Looking at their career numbers shows you they are pretty comparable overall, but Kotsay is more consistent.

 

 

Kotsay is still worth the price, IMO, because he can leadoff, play a defensively competent LF, and by being able to leadoff would stabilize the lineup and increase the effectiveness of Lee and Aramis.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

virtually all of Beane's pen is young and cheap, except Rincon who is old and relatively cheap. Beane's not trading any of the young ones, and with Rusch moving to the pen, Rincon's not a fit.

 

 

again...or you could have Lawton and the same production for minor league spare change instead of two of our top hitting prospects and our only ML ready starter.

 

Lawton fades down the stretch like no one's business.

 

Murton is a perfect trading chip. Great numbers and performance, but doesn't project for power in a power spot. Dopirak has had 1 great year, and is still far away. 1B aren't tough to find, really, and this makes Dope a great trading chip. Mitre is our most tradable P, since he's had ML success, is a sinkerballer, and blocked by Williams and Rusch.

 

I think Rincon and Kotsay are worth that trade. It's a fair deal for both teams.

 

I didn't know that about Lawton, but I see you are right.

 

but how about this, assume Erstad were still playing center. would you trade Mitre, Murton, and Dope for a deal for him and Scott Sauerbeck? of course you wouldn't, but current and career performance tells you that the the players are amazingly comparable.

 

something about being a Beane boy makes people want to over pay.

 

Touche, but Kotsay has been generally more consistent. Erstad had the one monster OBP year, but otherwise not great. Kotsay has been more steady the last 5 years.

 

Your comparison, however, is a little too accurate for my comfort.

 

Erstad hasn't had an 800 OPS since 2000. Kotsay has done it 3 times since then. Kotsay is a far superior defensive player, and has outperformed Erstad for several years. Their numbers are similar this year, but historically Kotsay is better after the ASB, while Erstad performs worse. Also, Erstad is also hitting about 40 points higher than his expected BABIP, while Kotsay is about 60 points below his expected BABIP.

[jjgman21]

 

Erstad hasn't had an 800 OPS since 2000. Kotsay has done it 3 times since then. Kotsay is a far superior defensive player, and has outperformed Erstad for several years. Their numbers are similar this year, but historically Kotsay is better after the ASB, while Erstad performs worse. Also, Erstad is also hitting about 40 points higher than his expected BABIP, while Kotsay is about 60 points below his expected BABIP.

 

all well and good, but not necessarily accurate or completely relevant

 

ie. Kotsay couldn't hold Erstad's jock in terms of range in center, we're talking about a leadoff hitter so OPS is nice but not really what we are after, but Erstad can get on base and steal bases more efficiently.

 

and did you consider that maybe Kotsay is or will suffer a blip in his career just like Erstad did? I'm not entire clear on BABIP, but it probably factors in Erstads worst years, so who cares about expectations, let's talk about getting a leadoff hitter for the rest of the year. Erstad has been ever bit as good in the role in 2004-2005. instead you want to lock the Cubs into another year of below average offense from center and left? that is exactly what you would have next year with Kotsay and Corey.

 

but still, it doesn't change the fact that too many are vastly overrating Kotsay. Duchshistershyster is one thing, but Kotsay and Rincon for three of our best prospects is ridiculous.

 

how about this, those three, or a comparable pitching heavy package, could probably get Dunn. what would you rather have, Kotsay and Rincon or Dunn?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

 

Erstad hasn't had an 800 OPS since 2000. Kotsay has done it 3 times since then. Kotsay is a far superior defensive player, and has outperformed Erstad for several years. Their numbers are similar this year, but historically Kotsay is better after the ASB, while Erstad performs worse. Also, Erstad is also hitting about 40 points higher than his expected BABIP, while Kotsay is about 60 points below his expected BABIP.

 

all well and good, but not necessarily accurate or completely relevant

 

ie. Kotsay couldn't hold Erstad's jock in terms of range in center, we're talking about a leadoff hitter so OPS is nice but not really what we are after, but Erstad can get on base and steal bases more efficiently.

 

and did you consider that maybe Kotsay is or will suffer a blip in his career just like Erstad did? I'm not entire clear on BABIP, but it probably factors in Erstads worst years, so who cares about expectations, let's talk about getting a leadoff hitter for the rest of the year. Erstad has been ever bit as good in the role in 2004-2005. instead you want to lock the Cubs into another year of below average offense from center and left? that is exactly what you would have next year with Kotsay and Corey.

 

but still, it doesn't change the fact that too many are vastly overrating Kotsay. Duchshistershyster is one thing, but Kotsay and Rincon for three of our best prospects is ridiculous.

 

how about this, those three could probably get Dunn. what would you rather have, Kotsay and Rincon or Dunn?

 

The BABIP numbers were only for this year, to explain why their numbers were similar.

[jjgman21]

 

The BABIP numbers were only for this year, to explain why their numbers were similar.

 

ok.

 

but do you see validity to my claim that you're too willing to way overpay for Kotsay in terms of prospects? we're talking about a fill in leadoff hitter that can play the outfield. as far as Kotsay goes, there are four options:

 

a. doing something with Corey which means trying to trade Corey at a point were he has no value, or releasing him at the end of this year or trying to put together some sort other big trade to get rid of Corey

 

b. screwing our outfield production for 2006 and putting Corey and Kotsay out there

 

c. finding a comparable player for a heckuva lot less (no, I'm not suggesting Erstad as a possability. he's name was raised to make a point)

 

d. finding a much better player for a similar package.

 

c or d are the obvious choices and overpaying for Kotsay would be a serious mistake.

 

and as for the "beane really likes Kotsay" nonsense...don't you see he's just trying to raise his value with every intention of trading him? his rhetoric about Kotsay reminds me of Boras in November and December. there's simply no reason to let the guy fleece you when he can do it to another team.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

 

The BABIP numbers were only for this year, to explain why their numbers were similar.

 

ok.

 

but do you see validity to my claim that you're too willing to way overpay for Kotsay in terms of prospects? we're talking about a fill in leadoff hitter that can play the outfield. as far as Kotsay goes, there are four options:

 

a. doing something with Corey which means trying to trade Corey at a point were he has no value, or releasing him at the end of this year or trying to put together some sort other big trade to get rid of Corey

 

b. screwing our outfield production for 2006 and putting Corey and Kotsay out there

 

c. finding a comparable player for a heckuva lot less (no, I'm not suggesting Erstad as a possability. he's name was raised to make a point)

 

d. finding a much better player for a similar package.

 

c or d are the obvious choices and overpaying for Kotsay would be a serious mistake.

 

and as for the "beane really likes Kotsay" nonsense...don't you see he's just trying to raise his value with every intention of trading him? his rhetoric about Kotsay reminds me of Boras in November and December. there's simply no reason to let the guy fleece you when he can do it to another team.

 

Your point is well taken. However, I think that Kotsay is having a better year than you are letting on. If his BABIP were just 20 points lower than expected, which is pretty unlucky, his line would be .320/.375/.440/.815, which is great for a CF and leadoff hitter. One thing I didn't bring up before is that I'd look to involve Patterson in a deal for an impact LF bat if the deal for Kotsay happended. I agree that Kotsay and Patterson in the OF isn't a great situation.

[jjgman21]

 

Your point is well taken. However, I think that Kotsay is having a better year than you are letting on. If his BABIP were just 20 points lower than expected, which is pretty unlucky, his line would be .320/.375/.440/.815, which is great for a CF and leadoff hitter. One thing I didn't bring up before is that I'd look to involve Patterson in a deal for an impact LF bat if the deal for Kotsay happended. I agree that Kotsay and Patterson in the OF isn't a great situation.

 

 

I here ya. Kotsay may be doing a little better then again he may be hitting alot of weak groundballs and pop ups and his stats right around what he deserves (I just put together what BABIP is...incidentally, what is Barrett's?).

 

but the proposed Corey trade only exacerbates the problem. you trade away three fine prospects to get Kotsay, forcing you to trade Patterson. but Patterson isn't tradable for an impact bat without a couple of other prospects thrown in, and all of a sudden the system is diluted and you are once again strapped for cash this offseason since all the money will go to Kotsay and the impact left fielder. then next year, you need a shortstop, secondbaseman (if Walker declines the mutual option), and still have a need for some pen help, only it will be worse than going into this year since Dempster will be a FA, and have no money and no prospects left to obtain said players.

 

the more I discuss it, the more I convince myself that the biggest mistake the Cubs could make right now is being Beane's sucker and over paying in prospects for Mark Kotsay.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

 

Your point is well taken. However, I think that Kotsay is having a better year than you are letting on. If his BABIP were just 20 points lower than expected, which is pretty unlucky, his line would be .320/.375/.440/.815, which is great for a CF and leadoff hitter. One thing I didn't bring up before is that I'd look to involve Patterson in a deal for an impact LF bat if the deal for Kotsay happended. I agree that Kotsay and Patterson in the OF isn't a great situation.

 

 

I here ya. Kotsay may be doing a little better then again he may be hitting alot of weak groundballs and pop ups and his stats right around what he deserves (I just put together what BABIP is...incidentally, what is Barrett's?).

 

For future reference, you can find BABIP here. A rough way for calculating expected BABIP is LD% +.110.

 

Barrett

 

LD%: .253

Expected BABIP: .363

Actual BABIP: .289

 

Barrett's line if he was hitting his expected BABIP: .347/.385/.542/.927

 

Barrett has been criminally unlucky.

[badger1679666666]

I love your avatar cpatt20. Thought I'd let you know.

[Diffusion]

 

Your point is well taken. However, I think that Kotsay is having a better year than you are letting on. If his BABIP were just 20 points lower than expected, which is pretty unlucky, his line would be .320/.375/.440/.815, which is great for a CF and leadoff hitter. One thing I didn't bring up before is that I'd look to involve Patterson in a deal for an impact LF bat if the deal for Kotsay happended. I agree that Kotsay and Patterson in the OF isn't a great situation.

 

 

I here ya. Kotsay may be doing a little better then again he may be hitting alot of weak groundballs and pop ups and his stats right around what he deserves (I just put together what BABIP is...incidentally, what is Barrett's?).

 

For future reference, you can find BABIP here. A rough way for calculating expected BABIP is LD% +.110.

 

Barrett

 

LD%: .253

Expected BABIP: .363

Actual BABIP: .289

 

Barrett's line if he was hitting his expected BABIP: .347/.385/.542/.927

 

Barrett has been criminally unlucky.

 

That LD% has to be wrong. That's pretty much impossible. I know Barrett has been hitting the ball hard all year, but that's just stupid.

 

The problem probably lies with definitions of line drives. What is a line drive? There must be plenty of different people that score balls in play, and I'm sure not all of them have the exact same definition of a line drive. I'm also sure individuals aren't always consistent, and they'll call the same thing a line drive once and a flyball another time etc.

 

I wish Baseball Info Solutions or whatever they're called published much more raw data.