This Daniel Palencia Thing Sure is Fun

[RandallPnkFloyd]

Image courtesy of © David Banks-Imagn Images

We live in the golden era of Chicago Cubs baseball, such as it is. The organization hasn't known prolonged, uninterrupted success for (say) a decade at any point since World War II, but they've come closest in the period since Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer took over at the end of 2011. Mostly, that run of success has been fueled by position players. Position players were the cornerstones of the team's rebuild. They drafted position players in the first round for their first four years in the organization. They traded Andrew Cashner for Anthony Rizzo, then extended both Rizzo and Starlin Castro, but they didn't extend Jake Arrieta.

Arrieta, of course, is one example of a pitcher achieving breakout stardom in a Cubs uniform during this era. Jon Lester is an example of the team going and getting a star who defined their competitive window on the mound. Justin Steele is the rare win for the team when it comes to homegrown pitching. All of them, however, are starters. The team hasn't churned out its own high-octane, high-caliber relievers at the rate that other teams have—and certainly, those guys haven't had star or staying power.

That is to say, the collective of Cub fans likely spends a lot of time fawning over other teams' relief pitchers, and closers, in particular. The Emmanuel Clase class. The Edwin Díaz dais. The Josh Hader type. Sure, the Cubs have had guys of a recent vintage capable of putting the clamps on a ballgame, but rarely has it been someone with real electricity. When it has, it's generally a past-their-prime-but-still-at-least-mildly-effective version of someone, like Craig Kimbrel. Adbert Alzolay was that guy, but only for a moment, between injuries.

Daniel Palencia has a chance to put an end to that waiting and, subsequently, such fawning. 

Armed with a triple-digit fastball, Palencia has nailed down the closer job for the 2025 Cubs. What was Ryan Pressly's role passed right through the hands of Porter Hodge, following the former's massive struggles to start the year. Hodge's injury passed it over to Palencia, and virtually nothing he's done in the ninth inning gives us reason to think his job security is in doubt for the foreseeable future.

The stuff, on its own, is worthy of emotional investment. Palencia relies almost exclusively on the fastball and slider, heavily favoring the heat. The four-seamer ranks 29th in FanGraphs's Stuff+ (110) among 173 qualifying relievers, while the slider (119) sits 16th among that same group. For the uninitiated, the Stuff+ model measures the physical characteristics of a pitch. Suffice to say, where Palencia lands—courtesy of his running fastball and that vertically-active slider—is quite good: 

The nature of Palencia's breakout is not only due to his ability to generate strikeouts. He's certainly doing that; his 28.7% strikeout rate ranks 32nd among that reliever group. But opposing hitters are also finding it difficult to get the barrel on a baseball. His minuscule 2.7 percent barrel rate tells that story. So when you're not getting a save that looks like this... 

...you're getting one that looks like this: 

But even beyond the statistical aspects of it, there's the excitement factor explored at the top. Palencia is increasingly becoming the type of arm where you know the game is over. His energy alone is enough to bury a hitter, before he even deploys one of his above-average offerings. It's the type of presence in the ninth that Cub fans have been pining for for quite some time.

Baseball Reference has a handy little tool that lists the players who have occupied each role each year, throughout an organization's history. The Cubs' closer column is quite an adventure. You've got converted starters (Ryan Dempster, Kerry Wood), stopgaps during periods of organizational turmoil (Kevin Gregg), electric pitchers wrought with volatility (Carlos Marmól), and plenty of other archetypes. It's a grab bag.

I've been alive since 1990. On only four occasions, since then, have the Cubs had the same closer for three consecutive years: Randy Myers from 1993 to 1995; Dempster from 2005 to 2007; Marmól from 2010 to 2012; and Héctor Rondón from 2014 to 2016. If we're going to continue to use that year as a benchmark, then you're looking at 25 different names over 35 years. It's not just that the Cubs haven't had a long-term closer; the nature of relievers is such that sustainability is rare. They've barely strung together consecutive seasons of the same name in the ninth.

At no point in recent memory have the Cubs had someone like Palencia. They've had closers, yes. Some good closers, even. But Daniel Palencia is a narrative shift for the Chicago Cubs. He could be their first long-term closer (in a true sense) since Marmól, and the first one who didn't make sweat pour from your armpits since Lee Smith.

Acquired from the Athletics in 2021, Palencia's development has come almost entirely within the Cubs organization. He possesses a pair of elite pitches and brings an aura and a burly frame that enhances them even further. With team control through 2031, he's the type of pitcher at the back end of ballgames that this team has lacked over the last few decades. It took a stroke of (mis)fortune to get him there, but it's hard to imagine an outcome more worth it—both on a day-to-day level and on a broader, organizational one.

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