Sources: Cubs Have Reached Out to Two Potential Sellers About Infield Upgrade

[Matthew Trueblood]

Image courtesy of © Dennis Lee-Imagn Images

In a survey of their needs and chances to address them, the Cubs have made calls about players who would shore up their weaknesses on the bench and in the infield rotation, sources said this week. Two trade candidates on their radar are third baseman Luis Urías, of the West Sacramento Athletics, and utility man Willi Castro, of the Twins, and the Cubs have touched base with each of those teams this month.

With Matt Shaw still struggling to generate the offense a team hopes to get from the hot corner, Chicago needs help there. Shaw has a more respectable .653 OPS since being recalled last month, but even that is underwhelming, and he's in a 4-for-40 funk that seems to confirm the staying power of the mechanical hurdles created by the huge leg kick he brought with him to the majors. Shaw is the obvious candidate for a short-term replacement, but Nico Hoerner, too, has been underwhelming. His singles-hitting profile is charming, but he's rapidly reaching the limits of it. At .288/.330/.354, his lack of power has gone from cute to glaring, and while it's fun that he's driven in 31 runs without a homer, that's a testament to the potency of the lineup around him, rather than to his actual utility.

Both Urías and Castro offer versatility, and each would directly address the shortcomings of Shaw and Hoerner. Urías has had an up-and-down career, including a multi-year stint as a trusted member of Craig Counsell's Brewers teams (but one that ended on a slightly sour note). Now 28, he's due to become a free agent this fall, so the Athletics will take calls on him throughout the next six weeks. He's batting .253/.339/.394 this year, which looks underwhelming but far outstrips Shaw or Hoerner, and his feel for contact and the strike zone is very good.

Urías was notable, through 2023, for a stretching, leaning stance, like he was trying to get a crick out of his back. It was an interesting setup, but it stopped working for him after a few injuries took him off the field and made it harder to maintain perfect timing.

Last season, with the Mariners, he modified the stance to something a bit more traditional. His slightly arrhythmic, stomping leg kick, however, remained a signature of his swing.

This season, the stance has changed some more, but this time, an entire swing overhaul has accompanied it. Urías has altered his approach to contact the ball deeper, with a slightly flatter but notably faster swing. He's making solid contact about as consistently as any player in the league.

Though he's older than Isaac Paredes and isn't as good even right now as Paredes was during his best years in Tampa, Urías would be a somewhat Paredes-like pickup for this team—hopefully, with better results, since Paredes struggled for most of his brief Cubs tenure. The other important separator between the two is that, unlike Paredes, Urías wouldn't cost much in a deal. He doesn't come with club control or quite the consistent track record of Paredes, so the Cubs would merely have to make sure they make the best offer, if this is the avenue they choose.

Castro, meanwhile, is a higher-upside, more compelling, lower-probability target. A switch-hitter, Castro, too, is 28. He, too, will hit free agency after the World Series. He's hitting a career-best .280/.362/.456 this year, and his right-handed swing has come along this year. His tools are a grade better than Urías's, almost across the board. He's best as a second baseman, defensively, but can play third or left with ease and shortstop, center or right in a pinch.

There are two problems. Firstly, the Twins aren't yet ready to sell, according to multiple sources. They're 37-41, and in freefall, but unless they continue to struggle for the next month, they won't ship out anyone they believe is important to a potential playoff push. Castro is one of those players.

Secondly, Castro has had durability problems. He's missed time this year with an oblique strain (yes, they happen to teams other than the Cubs, too), and with a sore wrist. He's dealing with the latter right now, so whether the Twins are willing to deal him might hinge on whether he can even get healthy (and remain productive) enough to command a worthwhile trade return.

Either player would give the team the flexibility to either option Shaw back to Triple-A Iowa, or rotate the new hitter into the infield on a more balanced basis. Castro's ability to bat left-handed helps there. So do Urías's 57 games at second base this year; he's divided his time between second and third evenly over his career. Of course, either move also opens the possibility of trading Hoerner or Shaw to make a bigger splash on the pitching side, be it as part of the same transaction or in a separate one. 

Hoerner's contract extension runs out at the end of 2026. Dansby Swanson is likely to need to move off shortstop at that point, anyway. In light of that, the Cubs would consider trading Hoerner to a team interested in either a challenge deal or being involved in a three-team trade. They did so as recently as this winter, and are not viewing him as off-limits even in the context of a pennant race.

One member of a rival front office pointed out that as Chicago lengthens its list of wants and needs on the summer shopping list, they'll quickly run into the limitations that come with having a solid but unspectacular farm system. To add a bat and multiple arms, as they hope to do, the team will need to move someone unexpected. That could be Hoerner, Shaw, or any of a number of other players. As a slightly sagging offense and their longstanding shortfall of pitching depth imperil their lead in the NL Central, they're widening their scope and accelerating their search for an upgrade to their roster. Urías and Castro are sensible targets, but no trade is considered imminent.

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[mul21]

A. Stop trying to replace Hoerner with garbage from other teams.

B. What evidence suggests Swanson will need to be moved off of SS?

[Brock Beauchamp]

If the Twins end up selling, Willi Castro is a really good get as a tenth man. His defense makes you squeamish up-the-middle but he can still hold a glove and play at the positions.

[PVG]

Hi Matt,
It looks like you're making comaparative evaluations based on offensive contribition of a half a season.
So a couple of questions for you -
1) Why half a season - if you look at their career numbers - aren't they all about the same - a tad over .700?
2) you mentioned defense - but isn't Hoerner outstanding while one of these is avg and the other is below?
3) Baserunning - should that count for something? It seems that Hoerner is (much) better than these alternatives. 

So what's the total package? I know you don't want to use WAR - do you add up runs saved and runs created and come up with a number - 
and what would that number be? - or how do you do this?  what's a good way to evaluate players? 
And what's the compelling cases for one of these alternatives?

[Jeff Alson]

I completely agree with PVG that, when you look at their career data, Hoerner, Urias, Castro are comparable hitters, with OPS between .711 and .719. But, Hoerner is a great defensive player, while Urias is average-to-below-average and Castro is poor. And Hoerner is a good base runner, while Urias and Castro are at best average. When you think about possible playoff matchups with teams like the Dodgers or the Phillies, the only advantages the Cubs have are defense and base running, and it would be self-defeating to weaken themselves by moving or benching Hoerner who is, according to both bWAR and fWAR, the Cubs' third most valuable player.

I will add two new perspectives. One, Hoerner is one of the best hitters in the league this year with RISP. He is particularly valuable with a runner on third and less than two outs, due to his low strikeout rate and ability to hit hard ground balls through drawn-in infields. Tucker is the only Cub player who I would prefer over Hoerner in that situation. Two, the fact that Hoerner is a very capable backup SS is very helpful from a roster makeup perspective, as the Cubs don't have to waste a spot on a weak hitting, backup SS as long as they have someone else who can play 2B. Urias hasn't played SS in 3 years and Castro has horrible defensive metrics at SS.

Using Matt's own words, the bottom line is that Hoerner's "actual utility" "far outstrips" either Urias or Castro. I would take either of them as a bench piece, but not to replace Hoerner.