Meet the Members of the Cubs' Next Top Prospect Class

[Billy Reich]

Image courtesy of South Bend Cubs

After disappointing finishes to the 2023 and 2024 seasons, Cubs President of Baseball Operations Jed Hoyer stated that he was building a “critical mass of talent” in the minor leagues, hoping for key contributions and developments from the top of the team's farm system. Fans — frustrated from an extended “retooling” of the Major League roster — became impatient, calling for top names to be acquired in free agency rather than wait for holes to be filled from within. Making a playoff push with rookie and sophomore players is a tall order; development isn’t linear, and catching lightning in a bottle like they did in 2016 is far from a guarantee.

The front office finally took major swings for top talent in the offseason, trading for MVP candidate Kyle Tucker and handing out lucrative offers to reliever Tanner Scott and third baseman Alex Bregman that put ownership outside of their comfort zone. Ultimately, working under the budget constraints ownership provided, the deals weren’t lucrative enough, and Hoyer had to pivot to internal options after all. A look around the field showcases all of the young talent that is making an impact at Wrigley Field this season: The Cubs have pre-arbitration players at first base, third base, center field, catcher, and starting pitcher, A mass of talent that fans have been eagerly waiting for.

In the past couple of years, Matt Shaw, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Miguel Amaya, Ben Brown, Cade Horton, Michael Busch, Porter Hodge, Daniel Palencia and others have made their rookie debuts at Wrigley. These players hold down key positions for a team making a push for the playoffs for the first time in a regular season since finishing with 84 wins in 2019, and showcase a strong scouting and player development system that has taken years to get rolling after Theo Epstein left the farm system devoid of impact talent.

While the Cubs have been graduating names familiar to most fans and top prospects have been making their way to the Friendly Confines, it begs the question: who’s next? After the 2016 trade deadline left the team completely devoid of high level prospects, has Hoyer done enough to pile up major league contributors that will provide a floor of success to the team for years to come? Who are the names fans can expect to see headline future top prospect lists? You know Owen Caissie and Kevin Alcantara, but there’s even more potential in some of the organization's fast-rising stars.

Jaxon Wiggins - Starting Pitcher

Selected in the supplemental second round of the 2023 draft, Wiggins struggled to keep runs off the board in college, posting a 6.17 ERA through his first two seasons at Arkansas. He missed his third season due to Tommy John surgery, but was selected by the Cubs due to a fastball that sits 96-97 mph, and a wipeout slider that grades amongst the elite in the minors. The issue is that the slider struggled to find the zone with how much break it carries, contributing to a 14.9% walk rate in his first year of pro ball.

Last season, Wiggins finished with a 4.37 ERA, pitching just 59 innings and finishing the year in High-A. He kept home runs off the board but struggled with hard hit balls to the gap.

This year, Wiggins has made strides forward, cutting down his walk rate and striking out more batters than he ever has. He currently sits in Double-A, where he boasts a 2.06 ERA and has struck out 49 batters in just 39 innings. More importantly, he’s limited opponents to zero or one earned runs in seven of his nine starts this year, and has stretched out his arm to go up to seven innings. Opposing batters are currently hitting a measly .170 against Wiggins so far this season.

His walk rate is still higher than the club would want — he's totaled 19 walks in his starts so far this year — but his strikeouts are ticking up, and he has top-of-the-rotation upside if he can continue to increase his ability to find the zone.

Ryan Gallagher - Starting Pitcher

Ryan Gallagher was selected by the Cubs with the 182nd overall pick in the 2024 draft. It was an unheralded pick — he hasn’t appeared on any top prospect lists, he wasn’t graded in the top 30 organizational prospects entering this season, and he didn’t even garner enough attention to receive a grade in MLB Pipelines draft prospect recap.

Yet, Gallagher is having one of the best stretches by a Cubs pitching prospect in recent memory.

In the month of May, Gallagher made five appearances, throwing six innings or more in four of them. In 27 innings pitched last month, he posted an impressive 2.33 ERA and struck out an obscene 40 batters, only walking nine. He’s allowing less than one walk and hit per inning pitched, and opposing batters are hitting just .179 against him. Already in High-A in his first year of pro ball, Gallagher has shown his potential to quickly move through the lower levels of the minors, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him reach Double-A by early next season at the latest if he keeps this up.

Gallagher's calling card has always been his above-average control and his ability to dot the corners of the strike zone. In college, his fastball left something to be desired, sitting around 89-90 mph. However, he’s already sitting 92 mph this season and is touching up to 94.5. His slider has gained some additional break and he’s been aggressive, getting ahead of counts and generating more swing and miss. He should be a staple on future Cubs prospect lists.

Jefferson Rojas - SS/2B

The highest ranking prospect on this list has flown mostly under the radar. He owns a 55 FV grade, but has largely been overshadowed by a deep Cubs system. Despite not ranking in MLB’s top 50 international prospects during the 2022 international market, the Cubs signed Jefferson Rojas for $1M, a testament to the belief they have in the young hitter. 

Rojas has largely flown under most fans’ radars because of his lackluster numbers and the fact that he’s still only reached High-A even though this is his fourth year in the clubs’ system. Most of this can be attributed to the fact that Rojas debuted on the farm at just 18 years old. Common for young hitters, his biggest criticisms were that he lacked power and struggled to lift the ball in the air, leading to a below average .646 OPS last season.

Over the offseason, Rojas seems to have bulked up. Listed at 5’11”, 150 lbs, he looks to be up to around 180-190 this season, and it shows. He’s hitting the ball harder than he has in the past, utilizing the entire field and lifting the ball into the air and driving deep into the gaps. In just 38 games this season, he’s almost tied his 2024 totals in doubles and home runs, and has already surpassed his previous total in triples.

It’s not just the added muscle that’s contributing to Rojas’ increased power production. He’s squaring up the ball better than he has in the past and has further developed his ability to recognize pitches out of the hand faster. Last month, Rojas put up some of the best numbers in the minors, slashing .337 / .416 / .561, good for a .977 OPS. 

Rojas is currently ranked as the Cubs #6 overall prospect after some graduations, and #77 on the top 100 according to MLB Pipeline, but he’s lacked a lot of the national attention prospects putting up these types of numbers tend to get. He had a slow 2024 season, and if he can keep pace even close to his May trends, I expect to see Rojas vault up into the top 50 before the end of the season.

Cristian Hernandez - SS/2B

Hernandez was a highly regarded international prospect, receiving comparisons to Alex Rodriguez and signing with the Cubs for a massive $3M deal in January of 2021. This is his fifth year in the Cubs system, but prior to this season, he’s spent most of his time tumbling down prospect ranking boards across the industry. 

At the start of 2022, Hernandez ranked as the Cubs’ #2 overall prospect and came in at 92 on MLB Pipeline's Top 100 list. In 2023, Hernandez was promoted to Low-A Myrtle Beach, his first full season outside of the Arizona Complex League. His season left much to be desired, as he slashed just .223 / .302 / .301 and racked up 118 strikeouts in 106 games. Scouts became concerned with his power potential. After projecting a lot of raw power due to his long levers and 6’2” frame, he only put up four home runs in 385 at bats.

He plummeted down the prospect rankings, heading into the 2024 season as the Cubs #24 system prospect. Hernandez went from projecting as an average everyday shortstop in the major leagues to concerns that he may not even be a serviceable backup. Scouts questioned his long swing and not being able to get his upper half and lower half in sync. 

A plus defender and baserunner, he’ll quickly be on the rise if he can get his bat to catch up. This season, Hernandez seems to finally be starting to put things together at the plate. He’s making better contact than he ever has, lifting the ball in the air at a better pace than he has in previous seasons. The power still hasn’t progressed as well as player development would’ve hoped, but he’s posting the best OPS of his career, .761. He’s walking slightly less than he was last season, but his slug is up 37 points. More importantly, he’s getting hits at a higher pace, batting .289 at High-A. I know batting average has fallen out of favor, but a 28 point increase at a higher level of competition is nothing to scoff at.

Hernandez is still putting up highlight-worthy defense at shortstop, and he’s swiped 23 bags in just 43 games so far. If he can continue to square up the ball and improve his contact rates, the player development team hopes he can follow in the mold of someone like Nico Hoerner, adding value on the margins with baserunning and defense.

Jonathan Long - 1B/3B/OF

Jonathan Long, the Cubs’ ninth-round pick in the 2023 draft has been an above-average hitter in every season at every level of pro ball. The worst portion of Long’s career was his stint last year in High-A where he posted a .763 OPS, hit 10 home runs, 12 doubles, and 41 RBIs in just 68 games. In his pro career, his average slash line is .303 / .403 / .504 with his best successes coming in Double-A and Triple-A.

Despite having plus raw and game power, Long has generally sat amongst the lower ranks of the organization's prospects due to his lack of defensive versatility. Listed as a 1B/3B/OF, Long has played below average defense in both left field and at third base, lacking the lateral quickness and route running abilities at both positions. He’s serviceable at first, but as a 5’11” right-handed hitter, his profile is undesirable at the position. It’s hard for players who are viewed as a career DH to make their way to the bigs and stay there, because as soon as their bat starts to lose any production, their value plummets.

But Long’s bat hasn’t lost any production — he’s grown and become a better hitter at every level, putting up the best year of his career so far in Triple-A Iowa. He’s been the best all-around hitter in Iowa, hitting .357 with a .995 OPS and nine home runs in 55 games to start this season.

 

Most of Long’s future comes down to whether or not he can find a defensive home. It’s possible to see him on the major league roster if injuries to Happ, Seiya, and Tucker pile up to provide some pop at the bottom of the lineup, but as a pure DH, the Cubs may look to flip him at the deadline if he remains hot. It’ll be interesting to see if Long can end up like Kyle Schwarber or Jorge Soler, or if he ends up topping out at the level of guys like Alexander Canario, Nelson Velazquez, or Matt Mervis.

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[Nena Fromm]

This was a great read!

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Welcome!