Ben Brown Is The Ceiling For This Cubs Squad

[RavenCub30]

When the vibes for this club are as elevated as they are at this moment, it's hard to imagine what the comedown would be like—in the unlikely event it should come to that. Craig Counsell has his ball club playing at a level higher than the old Southwest Airlines Plane View Camera (RIP). There are a sparse few facets of this team to which analysts can point as weaknesses, but as the starting rotation succumbed to strategy-realigning injuries, the squad's hurlers are one of them. As the Cubs' starting rotation sits now, no one individual runs a higher risk to alter this club's fortunes for the worse than 25-year-old righty Ben Brown. 

Once a coveted prospect, Brown won the fifth spot in the rotation coming out of spring, by a slim margin. Theoretically, his performance to this point in the season is thrown off balance by the nature of what injuries to Justin Steele and Shota Imanaga have done to this team. Certainly, the ideal circumstance for the Cubs was to have the terrific trio of Steele, Imanaga, and Jameson Taillon mow down opposing batters and stack wins in front of the North Siders' youngsters toeing the rubber. Every five days, Ben Brown takes the hill equipped with a limited array of pitches, and he's thus watched his pitch count soar routinely, with more than a few baseballs clearing the fences of whatever ballpark he's working in. 

My esteemed colleague Randy Holt offered a comprehensive take on Brown's control issues, with corresponding charts for emphasis. It was a great read, and what it relayed to the audience is that Brown, trying not to groove anything with just a two-pitch mix, misses the strike zone, a lot. According to Baseball Savant, batters are hitting .304 versus his four-seam fastball, which he deploys over half the time in each of his outings. With really no other need for justification, the coaching staff has already begun working on a solution to Brown's volatility on the mound. In his most recent appearance opposite the Reds this past weekend, veteran reliever Drew Pomeranz opened, giving way to Brown after clearing the top third of the Cincinnati batting order. Perhaps his teammate spotting him those outs quelled some nerves for Brown, as he proceeded to shine in six scoreless innings. 

This club is in the process of keeping themselves on top and heading in the direction of postseason prosperity. Through myriad setbacks, the Cubs continue to rise to the occasion when it comes to setting the standard for their division. Clearly, Brown has a set of skills that make him an asset of value to this squad, but ideally, that would not be as a starter. With the rehabilitation of staff ace Shota Imanaga progressing in the right direction, some of the pressure on Brown's shoulders is about to be alleviated. 

The margins are razor-thin, but they could determine the difference between a playoff appearance, and a legitimate World Series run. What Brown can do for his team could play a deciding role. 

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[We Got The Whole 9]

Brown was really good as a starter last year. He pitched 40 innings of a 3.3 ERA, allowing just 4 HR. Obviously they'd like to have him in the rotation and they're gonna give him a bit of leash to get right. It's also important to note that his FIP this year as a SP is 3.4., so they possibly believe that it his true talent. I think a lot of the ERA-FIP being so high is his fault and part of it may not be. It's weird to me that someone can throw such a devastating curve but they can't throw a change. It seems like the kick-change is pretty easy to throw from what I've heard pitchers say. I think he's tried to throw a circle-change at times and it grades horribly, as does the fastball. Let's see if he can round into form, but I believe he needs something else to keep hitters off the fastball.

[Bertz]

1 hour ago, RavenCub30 said:

Brown, trying not to groove anything with just a two-pitch mix, misses the strike zone, a lot.

105 pitchers have thrown at least 50 innings.  Among them Ben Brown is 30th highest in terms of pitches in the zone.  He's 11th in first strike percentage.