Ryan Pressly Looks Old, But There's More Hope Than Fans Realize

[Ian J Battaglia]

Image courtesy of Masterpress/GettyImages

The calendar has flipped to May, and the Cubs are sitting pretty atop the NL Central standings, at a pace that would put them right around 94 wins by the end of the year. No team has scored more runs than the Cubs thanks to the clicking offense, and they pace MLB in run differential. Despite this, there remain a few pests in the ivy at Wrigley in the early going for the North Siders. Perhaps only second to the injuries is the state of the bullpen, headlined by marquee offseason edition Ryan Pressly. Few fanbases are ever satisfied with their ownership or their bullpen, but the Cubs' second-place seven blown saves shows there may be cause for concern.

Pressly, reportedly initially reluctant to accept the trade to the Cubs, did so potentially to reclaim his role as closer as his former team, the Houston Astros, made a splash by signing Josh Hader in 2024. The Cubs, coming off a 2024 that had them middle-of-the-pack as far as bullpens go, brought in the 36-year-old Pressly as a veteran presence to stabilize the emerging but young reliever core that started to bubble up through the their system.

While Pressly hasn’t contributed to that blown saves stat himself, his performance in the early going has left a lot to be desired, with a 4.50 ERA and a FIP three runs higher over his first six appearances. During the rest of the month, he pitched infrequently, racking up just another six innings over that span, which saw his ERA drop to 2.25. However, his FIP remains troublingly high, all currently standing at 4.90. What might be causing his shaky performance?

Well, he’s simply not striking anyone out, for one. This is a reliever, in April, who pitched a dozen innings in that span — suffice to say, it’s early. Still, he’s running a paltry 3.46 K/9, or 9.8% strikeout rate. He’s declined over the past two years in this regard from his 2018-2022 peak, but you’d still expect to see this more in the 25% range. For comparison, last year, he pitched 11 2/3 innings in April, with a 13.11 K/9. His barrel% is around his career norms, sitting at 7.7%, but his HardHit% has skyrocketed nearly 20 points to 59.0%, which is in the lowest percentile in all of MLB. Finally, his Whiff%, which has averaged around 30% in his career, is down at a measly 16.5%. Combine that with a walk rate nearly twice as high as it’s been in years past, and you’re looking for trouble.

I went to Baseball Savant to see if perhaps something in his pitch mix was leading to this trouble, though the results are perhaps less cut and dry than you might expect.

Pressly throws five pitches, though he leans on three: his four-seam fastball, his slider, and a curveball which he throws nearly equally. Beyond this, he also has a changeup and a sinker, which he throws roughly six percent of the time each. Oftentimes when a pitcher is getting hit harder, it's because they’ve lost some spin (read: movement) on one of their main offerings, but that’s not really the case with Ryan Pressly. His spin rates are about the same as they’ve been, and his four-seamer has actually gained a few RPMs from last year’s iteration. His pitches also aren't breaking much differently either vertically or horizontally than before, with pretty steady metrics across the board. So what gives? 

For one, his velocity has continued to fall as he approaches his late 30s. He’s lost another half-tick on his four seamer this year, coming in a mile and a half slower than the 95-ish MPH he threw at his peak. Additionally, he’s lost a full MPH on both of his main secondaries. The pitches that are getting squared up the most are his four-seamer, his curveball, and his sinker. As mentioned, this is a minuscule sample, but the velocity drop on Pressly's four-seamer coincided with a jump in HardHit%. With a further drop in velocity, this could just be a case of an aging reliever losing just enough zip on a pitch to flip into “hittable” territory, especially for a pitcher like Pressly with nearly no horizontal movement on his fastball.

Still, not all hope is lost for Pressly. Looking at his Stuff+ ratings, his curveball continues to rate positively. The results have not been pretty so far, but after some ugly early outings, he has started to turn in more and more zeroes, dropping his ERA on the season to 2.25, which would tie a career-best. And he’s shown a willingness to evolve. After barely tinkering with a sinker in 2023, he’s now throwing it nearly six% of the time in 2025, and by Stuff+, it rates out as his second-best pitch. This is a veteran pitcher in the end of his career, finding new ways to get batters out with the repertoire he has now. Alongside consistent metrics in spin rate and pitch movement, there may be hope for Pressly yet.

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