What Happens if the Cubs Don’t Extend Kyle Tucker? 3 Potential Pieces of Plan B

[ADHamley]

If the unthinkable happens and Kyle Tucker isn't extended, what happens then? Here are 3 realistic and promising options that could serve as an effective back-up plan.

Image courtesy of © Kiyoshi Mio-Imagn Images

The December trade to acquire Kyle Tucker brought hope to Cubs fans everywhere. Having a player of Tucker’s caliber (acquired at the significant cost of Cam Smith, Isaac Paredes, and Hayden Wesneski) seemed to indicate the front office’s commitment to being some level of “all-in". But then there were no similarly bombastic follow-up moves, which muddied that messaging. Let’s face it: current ownership hasn’t exactly looked willing to sign big free agents. In the last few years, Dansby Swanson is the biggest fish reeled in, at seven years and $177 million. That’s good money for a good player, but it doesn’t compete with other big-market free-agent signings.

Instead, the Cubs have opted for a collection of mid-level three- and four-year contracts, with the likes of Jameson Taillon, Marcus Stroman and Shota Imanaga, and a ton of 1-2 year deals to fill roster spots. Imanaga and Seiya Suzuki look like good moves, but each is, like Swanson, somewhere south of superstardom.

Now that Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. has signed a 14-year, $500-million contract, it is reasonable to assume Tucker is in line for a massive payday. As impressed as I am with Guerrero as a hitter, my not-so-scientific “eyeball test” rates Tucker as a more impactful all-around player than Guerrero. He's older than Guerrero by an important margin, so he won't match Guerrero's money, but he'll come close.

Will the Cubs pay that? Their recent free agency record suggests it’s a long shot. Cubs fans do have a glimmer of hope based on the recent rumor of a Cubs offer to Tucker, but we've heard rumors over recent years about other marquee players who never seem to end up signing in Chicago. And Tucker’s own words don’t indicate an extension is imminent.

So let’s assume what is still probable: Tucker walks after the season and gets a nice, fat contract somewhere else. What do the Cubs do then?

Here are 3 seemingly realistic options that may make sense for the Cubs to explore:

Option 1: Josh Naylor
The most notable hitter contracts that will expire (with no player or team options) at the end of the 2025 season are those of Bo Bichette, Josh Naylor, Kyle Schwarber, and Gleyber Torres.

For a variety of reasons, neither Bichette nor Torres makes much sense. And while there would admittedly be something romantic about bringing Schwarber back to don Cubbie blue again, I have significant doubt whether Schwarber would even want to come back, five years after being non-tendered in favor of getting Joc Pederson and a $2.5-million discount. Even if Schwarber were open to a reunion, he also isn’t really the type of player Chicago seems to go after. There’s a great deal of power in his body type, but that body type isn’t one that ages particularly well, and the Cubs would have to move Suzuki back to right field to accommodate the DH-only Schwarber.

The Naylor option could be interesting, though. While he plays first base, he doesn’t exactly play it well (-6 Defensive Runs Saved in 2024), so he probably poses no real threat to the playing time of the up-and-coming Michael Busch. Despite Naylor’s limitations as a fielder, his carrying skills fit well with the types of hitters the Cubs seem to value: good plate discipline, some (though not massive) power, solid walk rate, and an aptitude for RBIs. Naylor just might be an intriguing DH option at a reasonable price, with the ability to spell Busch or replace him in case of an injury.

Option 2: Luis Robert, Jr.
Another potentially big splash could come in the form of a trade for Luis Robert, Jr. He's having a terrible recent stretch on the South Side (and who can blame him, the way that whole organization is going?). But underneath the recent disappointing stats is a guy with real talent: Robert has a career hard-hit rate above 40%, with a Barrel rate over 10%. He has speed (29 ft/s in 2024), and when he’s right, he is capable of big numbers (.264 AVG, 38 HRs, 90 Rs, 80 RBIs, and 20 SBs in 2023). 

He is currently making $15 million, and his contract includes club options in 2026 and ‘27 for $20 million each. That kind of money isn’t prohibitive, especially for someone with Robert’s upside. Of course, his health history doesn’t inspire much confidence, but I wonder how much of that might be related to his team’s nutrition and health practices—or lack thereof. If Robert can stay healthy and motivated, he could be a consistent All-Star-level player. For what it would likely cost the Cubs both in prospects and money, it seems a risk worth taking.

Option 3: Ha-Seong Kim
Didn’t see this one coming, did you? Kim is currently on the IL and has yet to play a game for the Tampa Bay Rays. The question: Why would Tampa be interested in dealing him right after Kim signed a contract with them? The answer: Because that’s exactly the kind of thing Tampa does.

Ha-Seong Kim isn’t going to be an MVP-caliber player, but he is a very solid player who has excellent plate discipline. His career contact rate in the States is 83.5%, and within the zone, that number is 87.6%. He simply doesn’t swing at pitches he can’t hit. His career swing rate outside the strike zone is a highly disciplined 21.8%. Even with those plate discipline metrics, Kim also contributes a handful of homers each year, and his speed also isn’t shabby (28.3 ft/s in 2024). 

Add this to his ability to field (only 2 DRS in an injury-plagued season last year, but 10 in his last full, healthy season), and Kim starts to look like someone who could contribute what the Cubs need. Although he has played the most often at shortstop (307 games) since coming to MLB, he has also played 127 games at second base and 79 games at the hot corner. Ideally, Matt Shaw will grow into his potential and take a secure hold of that spot in the coming years, but Kim provides an excellent safety net. Or, as with my suggestion for Josh Naylor, DH could be an option to add some flexibility.

Why a Plan B Matters
The hope, of course, is that Kyle Tucker signs an extension and retires in a Cubs uniform. But if he leaves, the front office needs to be ready to fill the gap however possible. Plainly, none of these guys do that, on their own, but they could each cover some of the ground needed to make up for his loss. Nor are they mutually exclusive. Signing Naylor and trading for either Kim or Robert might make the most sense.

The team has a window of opportunity that may not be open much longer. Many of the team’s current core pieces are quickly approaching free agency (Suzuki, Ian Happ, and Nico Hoerner all hit free agency after 2026), so there is no guarantee the current collection of talent will be together much longer. If the front office and ownership want to compete, now is the time.

View full article

[Victor Reichman]

Obviously, Tucker is a terrific player and will help the Cubs win more games. However, it was beyond ignorant to trade for him, giving up good assets (many teams wanted Paredes, Hayden always had good stuff, and Cam was a top prospect) without an extension at that time. A 1 yr. rental to save a GM's job was foolish.

[ADHamley]

I love the Tucker fit, but yeah, this is probably going to end up being a brutal price in the end. Cam Smith has been inconsistent, but his potential is obvious for anyone to see. And I've been a Wesneski believer for year. The Astros seem good at enough at coaching pitching that they'll get a really valuable player from him. While the Cubs won't miss Paredes, he's a great fit with those Crawford boxes. Houston absolutely cleaned up on this deal.

If the Cubs don't extend Tucker (and I doubt they will), the Tucker rental is going to be fun to watch, but probably not much else. If the F.O. had actually followed up with real attempts to improve the team after the Tucker trade, it's another discussion, but...

[ryanrc]

I still believe we win the tucker bid, because everyone else with that kind of bidding potential is already tightly locked up and wpuld need to move a big piece to clear room. Most big spenders have big time right fielders, or recently spent on huge contracts Like the Jays. 

The only t4ams I can think of that are a bidding war candidate are the Cards and the Rangers, and Hoyer would be fired by fan pitchforks if he lost the Cards bid war. 

We are still in a great position... we don't need any starting pitching.  We can drop Turner's bad 1 year contract and move Taillon... and easily win a 450m range contract bid without even breaking the "cap".

We would still have Steele, Imanaga, Horton, Boyd, Brown, Rea, Assad.... and our entire lineup back next year. 

The bigger question is who comes back after 2026 if we have a Tucker contract- Happ, Hoerner, Suzuki, Kelly are all due to depart. 

I would fight to keep Kelly, Hoerner and Happ, while letting Suzuki get his final big contract in the 25m/year range to play outfield again. All the Suzuki money would go to Kelly/Hoerner, while Happ would be tough to keep. We would expect him to slightly decline as a fielder and therefore land something like a 23mm/year deal, 5 years, 115m. That is a small, inflationary wage raise. Any team willing to go 6 years would likely outbid us, and some top spenders like Mets or Phillies may jump in. 

So ultimately i think we end up with Tucker, Kelly, and Hoerner long term 2027+ alongside Busch, PCA, Swanson, Amaya and Shaw. We lose Happ and Suzuki to keep Tucker and then fill those spots with prospects (Caissie and DH Ballesteros?). There's ways to keep Happ but I doubt it unless he takes a hometown discount. 

Edited April 20, 2025 by ryanrc
Mistake